Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Five Charts That Show We Are on the Brink of an Unthinkable Financial Crisis- John_Mauldin
2.Bitcoin Parabolic Mania - Zeal_LLC
3.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – 2 - Raul_I_Meijer
4.Best Time / Month of Year to BUY a USED Car is DECEMBER, UK Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Labour Sheffield City Council Election Panic Could Prompt Suspension of Tree Felling's Private Security - N_Walayat
6.War on Gold Intensifies: It Betrays the Elitists’ Panic and Augurs Their Coming Defeat Part2 - Stewart_Dougherty
7.How High Will Gold Go? - Harry_Dent
8.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – Forks and Mad Max - Raul_I_Meijer
9.UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall - GoldCore
10.New EU Rules For Cross-Border Cash, Gold Bullion Movements - GoldCore
Last 7 days
Jim Rickards: Next Financial Panic Will Be the Biggest of All, with Only One Place to Turn… - 20th Jan 18
Macro Trend Changes for Gold in 2018 and Beyond - Empire Club of Canada - 20th Jan 18
Top 5 Trader Information Sources for Timely, Successful Investing - 20th Jan 18
Bond Market Bear Creating Gold Bull Market - 19th Jan 18
Gold Stocks GDX $25 Breakout on Earnings - 19th Jan 18
SPX is Higher But No Breakout - 19th Jan 18
Game Changer for Bitcoin - 19th Jan 18
Upside Risk for Gold in 2018 - 19th Jan 18
Money Minute - A 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy - 19th Jan 18
Discovery Sport Real MPG Fuel Economy Vs Land Rover 53.3 MPG Sales Pitch - 19th Jan 18
For Americans Buying Gold and Silver: Still a Big U.S. Pricing Advantage - 19th Jan 18
5 Maps And Charts That Predict Geopolitical Trends In 2018 - 19th Jan 18
North Korean Quagmire: Part 2. Bombing, Nuclear Threats, and Resolution - 19th Jan 18
Complete Guide On Forex Trading Market - 19th Jan 18
Bitcoin Crash Sees Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars - 18th Jan 18
The Interest Rates Are What Matter In This Market - 18th Jan 18
Crude Oil Sweat, Blood and Tears - 18th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - Week 3 HSE Black Test Review - 18th Jan 18
The North Korea Quagmire: Part 1, A Contest of Colonialism and Communism - 18th Jan 18
Understand Currency Trade and Make Plenty of Money - 18th Jan 18
Bitcoin Price Crash Below $10,000. What's Next? We have answers… - 18th Jan 18
How to Trade Gold During Second Half of January, Daily Cycle Prediction - 18th Jan 18
More U.S. States Are Knocking Down Gold & Silver Barriers - 18th Jan 18
5 Economic Predictions for 2018 - 18th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - What You Need to Know Before Buying - Owning Week 2 - 17th Jan 18
Bitcoin and Stock Prices, Both Symptoms of Speculative Extremes! - 17th Jan 18
So That’s What Stock Market Volatility Looks Like - 17th Jan 18
Tips On Choosing the Right Forex Dealer - 17th Jan 18
Crude Oil is Starting 2018 Strong but there's Undeniable Risk to the Downside - 16th Jan 18
SPX, NDX, INDU and RUT Stock Indices all at Resistance Levels - 16th Jan 18
Silver Prices To Surge – JP Morgan Has Acquired A “Massive Quantity of Physical Silver” - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Bankruptcy and the PFI Sector Spiraling Costs Crisis, Amey, G4S, Balfour Beatty, Serco.... - 16th Jan 18
Artificial Intelligence - Extermination of Humanity - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Goes Bust, as Government Refuses to Bailout PFI Contractors Debt and Pensions Liabilities - 15th Jan 18
What Really Happens in Iran?  - 15th Jan 18
Stock Market Near an Intermediate Top? - 15th Jan 18
The Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018 - 15th Jan 18
London Property Market Crash Looms As Prices Drop To 2 1/2 Year Low - 15th Jan 18
Some Fascinating Stock Market Fibonacci Relationships... - 15th Jan 18
How to Know If This Stock Market Rally Will Continue for Two More Months? - 14th Jan 18
Everything SMIGGLE from Pencil Cases to Water Bottles, Pens and Springs! - 14th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Very Bad MPG Fuel Economy! Real Owner's Review - 14th Jan 18
Gold Miners’ Status Updated - 13th Jan 18
Gold And Silver – Review of Annual, Qrtly, Monthly, Weekly Charts. Reality v Sentiment - 13th Jan 18
Gold GLD ETF Update.. Bear Market Reversal Watch - 13th Jan 18
Stock Market Leadership In 2018 To Come From Oil & Gas - 13th Jan 18
Stock Market Primed for a Reversal - 13th Jan 18
Live Trading Webinar: Discover 3 High-Confidence Trade Set-Ups - 13th Jan 18
Optimum Entry Point for Gold and Silver Stocks - 12th Jan 18
Stock Selloffs Great for Gold - 12th Jan 18
These 3 Facts Show Gold Is Set to Surge in 2018 - 12th Jan 18
How China is Locking Up Critical Resources in the US’s Own Backyard - 12th Jan 18
Stock futures are struggling. May reverse Today - 12th Jan 18
Three Surprising Places You See Cryptocurrency - 12th Jan 18
Semi Seconductor Stocks Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018 - 12th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Panoramic Sunroof Questions Answered - 12th Jan 18
Information About Trading With Alpari And Its Advantages - 12th Jan 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

6 Critical Money Making Rules

Next Crude Oil Price Rally? Futures Say Market Is Tightening

Commodities / Crude Oil Mar 01, 2017 - 12:10 PM GMT

By: OilPrice_Com

Commodities

U.S. oil inventories are at record levels, but there are a few glimmers of hope that the glut could be starting to subside.

Storing crude oil for sale at a later date is no longer profitable, as the futures curve has flattened out in recent weeks, depriving traders of a strategy that has served them well over the past few years. The market “contango,” in which front-month oil contracts trade at a discount to oil futures six months or a year out, has all but vanished. The differential must be large enough to cover the cost of storage, and for many time spreads that is no longer the case. After three years of a steep contango, storing oil simply to take advantage of the time spreads is increasingly uneconomical.


One of the more expensive forms of storage is floating on tankers at sea, and because of the narrowing contango, floating storage is unprofitable today. Reuters reports that traders are beginning to unload crude from floating storage along the Gulf Coast. "Right now, traders aren't incentivized (to store)," Sandy Fielden, director of oil and products research at Morningstar, told Reuters in an interview. "It won't all stampede out of the gate, but inventory levels will come down. What will happen is that some of it will go to refineries, but a fair amount will be exported too."

Just as the rapid rise of floating storage in 2015 and 2016 was a sign of the deepening global supply imbalance, draining tankers of stored oil is an early sign that the supply glut is receding.

So far, it is only the most expensive storage facilities that are seeing drawdowns – the U.S. on the whole has seen crude stocks swell to record highs. But oil analysts argue that the surge in crude inventories is a symptom of stepped up imports booked at the end of 2016, when OPEC members pumped out huge volumes of crude just ahead of implementation of their deal to cut production. After a few weeks of transit time, the extra supply started showing up in U.S. storage data in January and February. In other words, the stock builds could be a temporary anomaly.

More recently, the time spreads for Brent futures also indicate increasing tightness in the market. John Kemp of Reuters notes that the spread between futures between April and May has sharply narrowed this month, meaning that the market is betting on a supply deficit as we move into the second quarter. The spreads for May-June and June-July are even smaller, trading at a few cents per barrel. This is a complicated way of saying that there isn’t a way to make money by buying oil, paying for storage, and selling it at a later date.

In a separate report, Reuters notes that inventories are also starting to drawdown in Asia, adding further evidence that the glut is not as bad as feared. As OPEC has throttled back on production, Asia is starting to see the impact. Reuters says that unusually large drawdowns took place across key oil hubs in Asia – 6.8 million barrels of oil were withdrawn from tanker storage off of Malaysia’s coast while Singapore saw a 4.1 million barrel decline and Indonesia’s storage fell by 1.2 million barrels.

"Dancing contango is now not a profitable thing to do, so we've sold out," an oil trading manager told Reuters. The trader no longer stores oil on tankers because of the disappearing contango.

The details of the contango and the oil futures market may seem complex and arcane, but the shift in time spreads is exactly what OPEC has been targeting with its supply cut. By cutting near-term supply, OPEC has succeeded in changing the economics of oil trading, forcing inventories to draw down. That could cause a short-term supply problem as oil is unloaded from storage, but in the long run OPEC needs to drain that excess supply from storage tanks around the world in order to spark higher prices.

Traders are more and more confident that the oil market will experience tighter conditions as we move into the second quarter, a bet that is reflected in both the time spreads and the exceptional buildup in bullish positions on crude oil. The oil price rally is not without its risks – very notable risks that have been covered in previous articles – but for now, the futures market is offering investors and traders some reasons for bullishness.

Link to original article: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Next-Oil-Rally-Futures-Say-Market-is-Tightening.html

By Nick Cunningham

© 2017 Copyright OilPrice.com - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

OilPrice.com Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules