Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - Sol_Palha
2.London Housing Market Property Bubble Vulnerable To Crash - GoldCore
3.The Plan to Control ALL Your Money is Now at Advanced Stage
4.Why Gold Is Set For An Epic Rally This Spring - James Burgess
5.MR ROBOT NHS Cyber Attack Hack - Why Israel, NSA, CIA and GCHQ are Culpable - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Emmanuel Macron and Banking Elite Win French Presidential Election 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Trend Lines Met, Technical's are Set - US Dollar is Ready to Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis) - Enda_Glynn
8.The Student Debt Servitude Sham - Gordon_T_Long
9.Czar Trump Fires Comey, Terminates Deep State FBI, CIA Director Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.UK Local Elections 2017 - Labour Blood Bath, UKIP Death, Tory June 8th Landslide - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
GBPUSD Top in Place, GOLD Price Ready to Rocket? - 27th May 17
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 27th May 17
BBC Newsnight Falls for FAKE POLLS, Opinion Pollsters Illusion for Mainstream Media to Sell - 27th May 17
UK Local Election Results Forecast for General Election 2017 - 26th May 17
Stock Market & Crude Oil Forecast! - 26th May 17
Opinion Pollsters UK General Election Seats Forecasts 2017 - 26th May 17
Bitcoin and AltCoins Crypto Price Correction - 26th May 17
Bearish Head and Shoulders in EURUSD? - 26th May 17
SELL US Stocks - Massive Market CRASH WARNING! - 26th May 17
EURGBP: A Picture of Elliott Wave Precision - 26th May 17
Credit Downgrades May Prompt Stock Market Capital Shift - 26th May 17
Rosenstein and Mueller: the Regime Change Tag-Team - 25th May 17
Stock Market Top - Are We There Yet? - 25th May 17
Should I Invest My Fortune in Gold? Inaugural Lecture by Dr Brian Lucey - 25th May 17
USD/CAD Continues Decline - 25th May 17
Bitcoin Price Goes Loco! Surges through $2,500 Despite Unclear Fork Issues - 25th May 17
The US-Saudi Arms Deal - Sordid Saudi Signals - 25th May 17
The No.1 Commodity Play In The World Today - 24th May 17
Marks and Spencer Profits Collapse, Latest Retailer Hit by Brexit Inflation Tsunami 2017 - 24th May 17
Why Online Trading Platforms Are Useful for Everyone - 24th May 17
The Stock Market Will Tank Hard - 24th May 17
It’s Better to Buy Gold & Silver When It DOESN’T Feel Good - 24th May 17
Global Warming - Saving Us From Us - 24th May 17
Stock Market Forecast for Next 3 Months - Video - 23rd May 17
Shale Oil & Gas Production Costs Spiral Higher As Monstrous Decline Rates Eat Into Cash Flows - 23rd May 17
The Only Metal Trump Wants More Than Gold - 23rd May 17
America's Southern Heritage is a Threat to the Deep State - 23rd May 17
Manchester Bombing - ISIS Islamic Terrorist Attack Attempt to Influence BrExit Election - 23rd May 17
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar - 22nd May 17
Gold and Sillver Markets - Silver Price Sharp Selloff - 22nd May - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Volatile C-Wave - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Trend Forecast and Fear Trading - 22nd May 17
US Dollar Cycle : Deep Dive - 21st May 17
Bitcoin Breaks the $2,000 Mark as Cryptocurrencies Continue to Explode Higher - 21st May 17
Stocks, Commodities and Gold Multi-Market Status - 21st May 17
Stock Market Day Trading Strategies and Brief 20th May 2017 - 21st May 17
DOW Needs to Rally Big or Correction is Next - 20th May 17
EURUSD reaches DO or DIE moment! - 20th May 17
How to Get FREE Walkers Crisps Multi-packs! £5 to £28k Pay Packet Promo - 20th May 17
UK BrExit General Election 2017 - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get it Right? - 19th May 17
Gold Mining Junior Stocks GDXJ 2017 Fundamentals - 19th May 17
If China Can Fund Infrastructure With Its Own Credit, So Can We - 19th May 17
Evidence That Stocks are More Overvalued than Ever - 19th May 17
Obamacare May Become Zombiecare In 2018 - 19th May 17
The End of Reflation? Implications for Gold - 19th May 17
Gold and Silver Trading Alert: New Important Technical Development - 19th May 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Why the US Will Lose Tens of Millions of Jobs in the Next 20 Years

Economics / Employment Mar 10, 2017 - 06:05 PM GMT

By: John_Mauldin

Economics

A significant part of Trump’s campaign centered on the angst of the white middle class and the ongoing loss of jobs in the Rust Belt. And that focus gave him his margin of victory.

Trump promised to bring those jobs back, a sentiment that resonated powerfully with the electorate. The problem is—as we’ve talked about previously—that at least 80–90% of manufacturing jobs were lost not to companies moving factories to China or Mexico but to increased automation.


Those Jobs Are Never “Coming Back”

They are gone. And that trend is going to continue and accelerate.

I fully understand that if we do get corporate tax reform as we discussed before, along with some other reforms, it is possible that Apple would move its iPhone 10 factory to the US. But iPhones are increasingly assembled by robots. In a few years, those and other such products will mostly be made on largely automated production lines, whether in China or the US.

Note that Apple has 766 suppliers, of which just 69 are in the US. Manufacturing iPhones in the US would be more about the logistics of getting just-in-time components from those other 700 suppliers, which are all over the world. It’s not the “manufacturing” Trump refers to.

And that situation is playing out over hundreds of industries.

Much of what we buy today is absolutely reliant on a complex, seamlessly functioning global supply chain. Current or near-term jobs in manufacturing are not the critical issue.

The Revolution of Self-Driving Cars 

Echoing what I’ve written about previously, we are rapidly entering the Age of Transformation. It’s not just the introduction of new technologies; employment and job creation are also changing extraordinarily quickly.

Let’s look at the impact of autonomous (self-driving) vehicles.

I am told they are actually available in beta form in Sweden, made by Volvo. Elon Musk promises us an autonomous car by 2020.

I think 2022–23 is more realistic. But sooner or later, there will be an explosion. Estimates are that by 2030, 25% of vehicles will be autonomous. (I want to thank my friend David Galland in his recent column for pointing me to a summary of these figures.)

I agree with David that the 2030 figure is likely to be far higher than 25%. The adoption of new technologies happens faster every year. Here’s a chart he used:

There are 250 million cars and trucks on US roads today. We buy more than 16 million cars a year, replacing the older part of our fleet. In a world of shared automobiles, which automated cars will allow, we won’t require 250 million cars; we will need far fewer.

I could see the total numbers being down 50% by 2030.

There are numerous benefits to autonomous driving, but an increase in total employment is not one of them. Automated driving will create jobs, just not as many as it destroys.

The total job loss just in the United States might approach 10 million. These jobs are not going to disappear in year one, but from the point of view of somebody working—and then suddenly not working—in an affected industry, the change will seem like it hit overnight.

And that is just one industry and one technology. There are literally hundreds of new technologies that are going to eat up jobs faster than they create them.

Tens of Millions of Jobs Will Be Gone in 20–30 Years

There are literally tens of millions of jobs in just the US alone that will probably vanish over the next 20 to 30 years. Of course, this happened every decade for the last 200 years with the introduction of new technologies. So, this is not exactly something new.

The difference, like I’ve written about before, is that now it’s happening much, much faster. Rather than moving from the farm to the factory to the office over 10 generations, we will be creating, destroying, and remaking whole industries in half a generation, making the always bumpy transition to a new workforce that much more difficult.

And of course, we need to remember that many new technologies and social inventions will create whole new categories of workers and job opportunities. The road ahead will hardly be a one-way street.

Making sure that we create more jobs than we lose is at the heart of tax reform. I promise you, there is a deep, direct connection between tax reform, the creation of new businesses, and employment rates.

Get a Bird’s-Eye View of the Economy with John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline

This wildly popular newsletter by celebrated economic commentator, John Mauldin, is a must-read for informed investors who want to go beyond the mainstream media hype and find out about the trends and traps to watch out for. Join hundreds of thousands of fans worldwide, as John uncovers macroeconomic truths in Thoughts from the Frontline. Get it free in your inbox every Monday.

John Mauldin Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife