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Trading Lessons

Stock Market Rally May be Complete

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Apr 19, 2017 - 06:51 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

It has become obvious that the higher Cup with Handle formation was not triggering the sell-off that would be expected. Both the daily chart and the 2-hour chart actually show a better position for a clean Cup with Handle pattern with the Lip at 2322.25. The Broadening Wedge remains the same.

SPX appears to have halted its rally at the 50% retracement level. It remains on a sell signal with additional confirmation beneath 2322.25.


There seems to be a striking similarity with the 1987 crash scenario, but the outcome may quite a bit different. For example, next week shows a potential Primary Cycle low, perhaps Wave (3), while the next Master Cycle low, Wave (5) of [1] is not due until May 26, at the soonest.

What this means is a possible series of cascades that occur over the next several months.

My best estimate is that Primary Wave [1] may bottom at the end of May, while Waves [2] through [5] go through the end of July. I don’t want to get too far ahead, but you can see that this may be only the beginning.

VIX also halted its decline near the 50% retracement level.

The Hi-Lo Index is still above its mid-Cycle support/resistance at 103.45.

Regards,

Tony

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As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals.

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

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