Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Canada Real Estate Bubble - Harry_Dent
2.UK House Prices ‘On Brink’ Of Massive 40% Collapse - GoldCore
3.Best Cash ISA for Soaring Inflation, Kent Reliance Illustrates the Great ISA Rip Off - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Understanding true money, Pound Sterling must make another historic low, Euro and Gold outlook! - Marc_Horn
5.5 Maps That Explain The Modern Middle East - GEORGE FRIEDMAN
6.Gold Back With A Vengeance As Bitcoin Bubble Bursts - OilPrice_Com
7.Gold Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
8.Crude Oil Trade & Nasdaq QQQ Update - Plunger
9.Gold And Silver – Why No Rally? Lies, Lies, And More Lies - Michael_Noonan
10.UK Election 2017 Disaster, Fake BrExit Chaos, Forecasting Lessons for Next Time - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Sugar Commodity Investors: "Desperately Seeking..." Clarity and Objectivity - 28th Jul 17
When You Think It Can’t Get Worse, The Markets Become Even More Absurd - 27th Jul 17
US Dollar - Make Way For Uncle Buck - 27th Jul 17
Stock Market Levitation Continues... For Now - 27th Jul 17
Is Big Oil planning its Funeral by ignoring the obvious? - 27th Jul 17
Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis - 27th Jul 17
Reconciling the US Dollar Outlook with the Super Bullish Gold and Silver COTs - 26th Jul 17
Last Week’s Rally in Gold Stocks Erased - 26th Jul 17
Dollar, Bitcoin, Markets - Is There A New Flight To Safety? - 26th Jul 17
Central Banks ARE The Crisis - 26th Jul 17
Iran: Public Image Versus Historical Reality - Part 1: An Abridged History to the 20th Century - 26th Jul 17
Trump Fails To Understand One Critical Thing—Our Trade Partners Have Options, Too - 26th Jul 17
Stock Market and Gold Stocks Trend Forecast Update - 25th Jul 17
Saving Illinois: Getting More Bang for Its Bucks - 24th Jul 17
3 Stocks Sectors That Will Win in The Fed’s Great Balance-Sheet Unwind - 24th Jul 17
Activist Investors Are Taking Over Wall Street, Procter and Gamble Might Never Remain the Same - 24th Jul 17
Stock Market Still on Track - 24th Jul 17
Last Chance For US Dollar To Rally - 24th Jul 17
UK House Prices Momentum Crash Warns of 2017 Bear Market - Video - 22nd Jul 17
Crude Oil, Gold, ETFs & more: Pro-grade Market Forecasts - 22nd Jul 17
Warning: The Fed Is Preparing to Crash the Financial System Again - 21st Jul 17
Gold / Silver Shorts Extreme - 21st Jul 17
GBP/USD Bearish Factors - 21st Jul 17
Gold Hedges Against Currency Devaluation and Cost Of Fuel, Food, Beer and Housing - 21st Jul 17
Is It Worth Investing in Palladium? - 21st Jul 17
UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017 - 21st Jul 17
The Fed May Show Trump No Love - 20th Jul 17
The 3 Best Asset Classes To Brace Your Portfolio For The Next Financial Crisis - 20th Jul 17
Gold Stocks and Bonds - Preparing for THE Bottom - 20th Jul 17
Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Safe Haven Gold For Long Term - 20th Jul 17
Trump Has Found A Loophole To Rewrite Trade Agreements Without Anyone’s Permission - 20th Jul 17
Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts - 20th Jul 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Crude Oil, Gold, ETFs & more: Pro-grade Market Forecasts

Shifting World Economies Present Massive Opportunities for Investors

Stock-Markets / Investing 2017 May 05, 2017 - 06:56 PM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Stock-Markets

Recent news from the World Economic Forum (weforum.org) has outlined recent core global economic functions and relationships (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017).  We found this interesting in both factual data and interpreted data and we wanted to present our analysis to you, our valued members.


The factual data presented by the World Economic Forum is clearly showing that China's growth as an emerging, diversified economy is already displacing some other emerging economies (India, Brazil, Italy, France and Canada). When we consider the maturity of these economies as well as their total output (see the infographic below), we begin to understand the mature global economies are likely saddled with more debt as multiple global economic crisis events have transpired since 2000. The graphic below clearly illustrates that many North American and European countries have gone further into debt since the initial Dot Com bubble event took place near the turn of the century (2000).

Gross Debt Ratio 2000 - 2013

Country Gross Debt Ratio 2000 - 2013

Interestingly, many of the countries that have acquired so much new debt since 2000 are also the worlds largest economies and, therefore, are much more capable of experiencing continued economic growth cycles to address and pay down these debt expansions.

Largest Economies 2017

World's Biggest Economies

It is our opinion that the expansion of debt across the globe since the year 2000 will find a means to propel economic growth in many of these most mature markets vs. transition to younger emerging markets with higher risks. Our opinion is based on two primary factors; longer-term economic growth and contraction cycles and the understanding that capital always attempts to move towards the safest net positive return venues at times of uncertainty. Although we believe certain opportunities will continue to exist in younger emerging markets, we believe these opportunities should be viewed as much shorter term rotational plays in global markets that may present a higher risk opportunity for valuation or price rotation. We strongly believe the major growth opportunities will continue to be present in the more mature and economically diverse economies that continue to drive global growth and propel many of the emerging markets opportunities.

Recently, many people have been talking about the US GDP growth predictions and if the US growth will ever get back to near 3%. The word "luck" seems to pop up in regards to reaching this level ever again. We disagree with the concept that "luck" has anything to do with this level being reached in the near future. We believe the longer-term economic cycles will begin to play a more tangible role in all global economies over the next 3~7 years. We also believe these cycles will present major headwinds for certain emerging markets that may equate to contagion type crisis events for many.

We believe these emerging market crisis events will drive investment capital away from many of these debt laden emerging markets as these events unfold and push capital investment into stronger, more stable, mature economies.  This dramatic shift of capital deployment will further strengthen these established global economies and allow they to experience economic growth on a scale that has not been seen since the 1950s~1980s.

Global Economy 101

Global Economy

Many people fail to realize the world has experienced at least 7 of these major cycle events in recent history (from the 15th century till now). Empires have fallen. Emerging markets have collapsed. Dynamics and wealth shift dramatically in the midst of these major cycle events and many times the strongest and most capable empires are the one that are able to restructure, rebuild and thrive.

When we consider this list of the top 20 countries with the highest debt to GDP ratio, we see that nearly 80% of them are what we would consider "fledgeling economies". Debt for these countries is a method of attempting to launch themselves onto the global playing field and a process of the easy money policies of the last 20+ years. The newer European Union and BRICs hype of the late 1990s and early 2000s likely drove many of these countries to have larger and larger debt requirements in an attempt to compete on a larger global level. Now, as we believe this major cycle event will begin to play out over the next few years, we believe the opportunity for investors will be to chase the rotation of capital around the globe as it attempts to find safe and stable growth opportunities.

20 countries with highest debt to GDP ratios

20 countries with highest debt to GDP ratios

We believe the opportunities for strategic investors will be seen and experienced in global ETFs, major global Indexes, precious metals and currencies. We believe the opportunities for massive moves are just starting and key elements of the proposed global capital migration will begin to become noticeable over the next 6 to 18 months. If you wish to continue receiving our updates and detailed trading signals, please visit ActiveTradingPartners.com or TheGoldAndOilGuy.com.  We keep our clients up to date with the highest levels of forward looking market analysis and trading opportunities. We welcome you to become a member and begin profiting from our shared experience.

In closing, take a look at these sample Emerging market charts. Notice the multi-year downward sloping peaks correlating with global QE events. Notice how massive price rotation (30~60%) events happened when QE events ended or when these economies were left to operate without outside impetus? Now, imagine the price rotation that may occur with a major, "generational", event cycle playing out? Where do you think all that capital will run to for deployment and safety?

GMM Emerging Markets Weekly Flag

GMM Emerging Markets Weekly Flag

EET Ultra Emerging Markets Weekly Flag

EET Ultra Emerging Markets Weekly Flag

There are many new and exciting positions to be entered this month and we just added another two this week each with the potential for over 30% profit upon MRM breakout pattern.

Visit www.ActiveTradingPartners.com today to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen
www.ActiveTradingPartners.com – Stock & 3x ETFs

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com.  There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method.  For 7 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets.  Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Technical Traders Ltd., its owners and the author of this report are not registered broker-dealers or financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Never make an investment based solely on what you read in an online or printed report, including this report, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn’t well known. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report has been paid by Cardiff Energy Corp. In addition, the author owns shares of Cardiff Energy Corp. and would also benefit from volume and price appreciation of its stock. The information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any content of this report, nor its fitness for any particular purpose. Lastly, the author does not guarantee that any of the companies mentioned in the reports will perform as expected, and any comparisons made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife