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EURUSD and GBPUSD at a Turning Point

Currencies / Forex Trading May 06, 2017 - 03:35 AM GMT

By: Enda_Glynn

Currencies

My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: French Presidential Election, German Factory Orders m/m. USD: Mortgage Delinquencies.

Good night to you all, and welcome to the weekend, again.
Life seems to just disappear so quickly!


EURUSD edged higher towards the upper trend line today, the high reached 1.0998.
The target was set at 1.1020 where the price would reach that trend channel.

Wave 'v' pink reached equality with wave 'i' pink at 1.0990
So there is an argument to be made that wave 'v' is now complete at todays high.
The previous fourth wave is at 1.0874,
this is now the first meaningful support level.
A break down through that level in an impulse wave and a corrective lower high is the action to watch for from here.
Nothing has changed in the larger wave count.
This market is at a significant turning point and the next major move is to the downside.
The French election is on Sunday,
The results could be an emotional trigger for the market,

if the market rallies, that will be in the form of an extension in wave 'v' pink.
If we get a selloff, it will be a sign that the high in wave 2 blue is finally in!
I am leaning towards the latter, given the extended look to this rally right now.

My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: Halifax HPI m/m. USD: Mortgage Delinquencies.

Cable rallied in a possible wave (v) brown today.
I have relabeled the structure to account for a five wave rally in brown off the wave [b] low at 1.2364.
The previous wave count viewed the correction as a complete three wave form.
But todays new high triggered the alternative labeling.
This is a distinction without a difference.
As the next major move is down in both wave counts.

Wave (v) brown will reach equality with wave (i) brown at 1.3035.
The upper trend channel line is in that region also.
So;
For next week, I am looking for a pop to the 1.30 level and the next leg down in wave (5) blue to take hold.

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Mortgage Delinquencies.

USDJPY is now declining in wave (iv) green.
And as suggested last night, waves 'a' and 'b' are possibly complete as of this evenings close.
Wave 'c' brown should begin on monday with a target at the 1.1150 region.
This is where support from the previous fourth wave comes in.

The larger wave count is performing very well so far
and the market is well into the uptrend now.
For Monday watch for a decline in wave 'c' brown.
If resistance is broken at the high of 112.05, then the alternate wave (iv) will be triggered.

My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Mortgage Delinquencies.

The DOW has rallied in three waves off the recent low labelled wave 'i' pink.
The high at 21011 must not break in order for this interpretation to remain valid.
The price must decline away from resistance soon.

The larger picture in stocks in general is so completely bearish right now, that every signal to the downside must be taken seriously from here.
Hence my continuous bearish stance over the last few weeks.

Remember;
We have been in this twilight zone before,
this uber bullish atmosphere, an overbought extreme.
with over extended companies, governments and individuals.
All juiced up on cheap credit with not a black cloud in the sky.
Margin debt at all time highs and...
Prices are rising and they will keep rising forever, or so I am told in the media.

The general population is going to sorely regret they ever saw a credit card, mortgage advisor or car loan officer!
That is for sure.
Let them party on for now,
But this party will not last much longer.

I, on the other hand, will keep vigilant for signs of a turn in prices
to herald in the next phase of this market cycle.
One which has the potential to turn into a depression.

Enda Glynn
http://bullwaves.org
I am an Elliott wave trader,
I have studied and traded using Elliott wave analysis as the backbone of my approach to markets for the last 10 years.
I take a top down approach to market analysis
starting at the daily time frame all the way down to the 30 minute time frame.

© 2017 Copyright Enda Glynn - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


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