Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Canada Real Estate Bubble - Harry_Dent
2.UK House Prices ‘On Brink’ Of Massive 40% Collapse - GoldCore
3.Best Cash ISA for Soaring Inflation, Kent Reliance Illustrates the Great ISA Rip Off - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Understanding true money, Pound Sterling must make another historic low, Euro and Gold outlook! - Marc_Horn
5.5 Maps That Explain The Modern Middle East - GEORGE FRIEDMAN
6.Gold Back With A Vengeance As Bitcoin Bubble Bursts - OilPrice_Com
7.Gold Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
8.Crude Oil Trade & Nasdaq QQQ Update - Plunger
9.Gold And Silver – Why No Rally? Lies, Lies, And More Lies - Michael_Noonan
10.UK Election 2017 Disaster, Fake BrExit Chaos, Forecasting Lessons for Next Time - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
UK House Prices Momentum Crash Warns of 2017 Bear Market - Video - 22nd Jul 17
Crude Oil, Gold, ETFs & more: Pro-grade Market Forecasts - 22nd Jul 17
Warning: The Fed Is Preparing to Crash the Financial System Again - 21st Jul 17
Gold / Silver Shorts Extreme - 21st Jul 17
GBP/USD Bearish Factors - 21st Jul 17
Gold Hedges Against Currency Devaluation and Cost Of Fuel, Food, Beer and Housing - 21st Jul 17
Is It Worth Investing in Palladium? - 21st Jul 17
UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017 - 21st Jul 17
The Fed May Show Trump No Love - 20th Jul 17
The 3 Best Asset Classes To Brace Your Portfolio For The Next Financial Crisis - 20th Jul 17
Gold Stocks and Bonds - Preparing for THE Bottom - 20th Jul 17
Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Safe Haven Gold For Long Term - 20th Jul 17
Trump Has Found A Loophole To Rewrite Trade Agreements Without Anyone’s Permission - 20th Jul 17
Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts - 20th Jul 17
Bitcoin PullBack Is Over (For Now): Cryptocurrencies Gain Nearly A 50% In Last 48 Hours - 19th Jul 17
AAPL's 6% June slide - When Prices Are Falling, TWO Numbers Matter Most - 19th Jul 17
Discover Why A Major American Revolution Is Brewing - 19th Jul 17
iGaming – Stock Prices - 19th Jul 17
The Socionomic Theory of Finance By Robert Prechter - Book Review - 18th Jul 17
Ethereum Versus Bitcoin – Which Cryptocurrency Will Win The War? - 18th Jul 17
Accepting a Society of Government Tyranny - 18th Jul 17
Gold Cheaper Than Buying Greek Villas in 2012 - 18th Jul 17
Why & How to Hedge the Growing Risks of Holding Stocks - 18th Jul 17
Relocation: Everything You Need to do for a Smooth Transition Abroad - 17th Jul 17
A Former Lehman Brothers Trader: It’s Time To Buy Brick And Mortar Retailers - 17th Jul 17
Bank Of England Warns “Bigger Systemic Risk” Now Than 2008 - 17th Jul 17
Bitcoin Price “Deja Vu” Corrective Sequence - 17th Jul 17
Charting New Low in Speculation in Gold and Silver Markets - 17th Jul 17
Bitcoin Crash - Is This The End of Cryptocurrencies? - 17th Jul 17
The Fed's Inflation Nightmare Scenario - 17th Jul 17
Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 - 17th Jul 17
Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come - 17th Jul 17
Gold and Silver Biggest Opportunity Since Late 2015, Last Chance at These Prices - 17th Jul 17
Stock Market More to Go - 17th Jul 17
Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together - 16th Jul 17
Stock Market SPX Uptrending Again After Microscopic Correction - 15th Jul 17
Global Currency Reserve At Risk - 14th Jul 17
Picking Great Gold Stocks - 14th Jul 17
BBC Tree Expert's Verdict on Sheffield Amey / Labour City Council Tree Felling's - 14th Jul 17
SPX Cycles, Fed Funds and Gold - 14th Jul 17
Should Platinum Be More Expensive Than Gold? - 14th Jul 17
What's Next for US Dollar, Stocks, Bonds and Gold? - 13th Jul 17
India Gold Imports Surge To 5 Year High – 220 Tons In May Alone - 13th Jul 17
Gold and Silver: Your Stomach Is Probably Wrenching Right Now - 13th Jul 17
Gold Industry Is In A Deep State Of Dysfunction, Delusion And Denial - 13th Jul 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Crude Oil, Gold, ETFs & more: Pro-grade Market Forecasts

Gold is About to Shine Again!

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017 May 12, 2017 - 08:30 AM GMT

By: Enda_Glynn

Commodities

My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: G7 Meetings, German Prelim GDP q/q, USD: G7 Meetings, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m.


Hi everybody!
Hope your doing well.
EURUSD had one more dip lower today as suggested last night.
If wave 'i' down is complete then we will get a counter trend rally into resistance at about 1.0950.
That is still the focus at the moment.
The rise off the wave 'i' low must be in three waves in order to create an elliott wave signal off the high.
That is five waves down and three waves up, creating a lower high and a short opportunity.

Todays low dipped below support at 1.0850 momentarily,
lets see if this rise develops into a three wave 'a,b,c' form.

My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: G7 Meetings. USD: G7 Meetings, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m.

The decline off yesterdays high has ruled out the triangle idea at this point in time,
But the decline off the wave 'b' high at 1.2987 is in three waves so far,
This action continues to point to one last rally to close out the larger structure.
I have labelled todays low as wave (iv) brown,
This suggests a running flat correction in wave (iv) brown

I have marked the recent low at 1.2901, if the price rallies above this point it confirm the start of wave (v) brown

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: G7 Meetings. USD: G7 Meetings, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m.

Prices declined in wave 'c' pink today,
the target was hit and the price has bounced again in an impulsive looking fashion.
Which again adds weight to the idea that wave 'iv' is an expanding flat.
Wave 'v' looks to have begun off todays low

The target for wave 'v' is at about 115.50.
A break of the wave 'b' high will signal that wave 'v' is underway.
Prices should not decline below 112.97, to keep the current short term count intact.

My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: G7 Meetings, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m
The DOW has again spiked lower and then retraced the losses,
This action points to an ongoing correction, as suggested in the alternate wave count on the 4hr chart.

This market is more likely going to break to a new all time high following todays action.
The decline off the recent high has an impulsive look to it,
But there is one major flaw,
The intermediate low and high, shown with arrows, have crossed.
this rules out the idea of an impulsive five waves down as the start of the new bear market.
It looks like we will have to wait for a few more weeks on that one.
So. where do we go from here;
If the price breaks 21000 again, I will switch to the alternate wave count
That count envisages one final high in wave 'v' pink.

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: G7 Meetings, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m.

GOLD has again drifted sideways today.
I have shown a parallel trend channel around the price action.
If the price has bottomed at the recent low,
Then we should see the pattern break the upper trendline very soon.
The opposite is true for the lower trend line.

So if wave '3' pink arrives tomorrow that upper trendline will break at about 1231.
1239 is the first significant resistance to the developing rally in wave (iii) blue.

The technical situation has brightened somewhat over the last few days.
The 4hr RSI is on the verge of a buy signal, in the form of a centreline cross to the upside.
All the little signs are falling into place right now.
Gold is about to shine again!

Enda Glynn
http://bullwaves.org
I am an Elliott wave trader,
I have studied and traded using Elliott wave analysis as the backbone of my approach to markets for the last 10 years.
I take a top down approach to market analysis
starting at the daily time frame all the way down to the 30 minute time frame.

© 2017 Copyright Enda Glynn - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife