Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Focusing on May Cycle Bottom - Jim_Curry
3.Silver, silver, and silver! There’s More Than Silver, People! - P_Radomski_CFA
4.Is the Malaysian Economy a Potemkin Village - Sam_Chee_Kong
5.Stock Market Study Shows Why You Shouldn’t “Sell in May and Go Away” - Troy_Bombardia
6.A Big Stock Market Shock is About to Start - Martin C
7.A Long Term Gold Very Unpopular View - Rambus_Chartology
8.Stock Market “Sell in May and go away” Study When Stocks Are Down YTD - Troy_Bombardia
9.Global Currency RESET Challenge: Ultimate Twist - Jim_Willie_CB
10.The Coming Silver Supply Crunch Is Worse Than You Know - Jeff Clark
Last 7 days
What to Expect at a Critical Stock Market Point: End of a Wave 2 Rally - 25th May 18
Merlin Passes Top Tips for Buying and Using Premium vs Standard, Theme Parks UK - 25th May 18
Trump “Victories” on Trade are Anything But - 25th May 18
Crude Oil: It’s Here! - 25th May 18
Stock Market Distribution Pattern Revealed - 25th May 18
Stock Market Topping - Everything Looks Rosy at the End of a Trend! - 25th May 18
Trump Puts North Korea Nuclear WAR Back on Track as Plans for Nobel Peace Prize Evaporate - 25th May 18
Insane EU GDPR SCAM Triggers Mass Email Spam Attacks! - 24th May 18
Stock Market Higher Again, but Still No Breakout - 24th May 18
Study: Slowing Global Economic Growth IS NOT Bearish for U.S. Stocks - 24th May 18
What if This Week’s Rally in Gold is Already Over? - 24th May 18
EUR/USD – Reward for Bears - 24th May 18
5 Terrible Trading Mistakes That Rookie Investors Keep Making - 24th May 18
More Clarity for the Short Term for Bitcoin Price - 22nd May 18
Study: A Rising and Strong U.S. Dollar Isn’t Consistently Bearish for the Stock Market - 22nd May 18
Gold, Silver & US Dollar Updates with Review of Latest COTS - 22nd May 18
Upside DOW Stock Market Breakout May Be Just the Beginning - 22nd May 18
5 Reasons Why Forex Trading Is Becoming Such A Big Deal In SA - 22nd May 18
Fibonacci And Elliot Wave Predict Stock Market Breakout Highs - 21st May 18
Stock Market Ideal Cycle Low Near - 21st May 18
5 Effects Of Currency Fluctuations On The Economy - 21st May 18
Financial Conditions are Still too Easy for the Stocks Bull Market to End - 21st May 18
US Stock Market Elliott Wave Predictions for 2018 and Beyond - 20th May 18
Are You Still Fearful of Cryptos? - 20th May 18
US Stocks - Why I am Short-term Bearish, Medium-term Bullish - 20th May 18
Looking for a Turn in Gold Price - 20th May 18
GDX Gold Mining Stock Fundamentals 2018 - 19th May 18
Semiconductor Stock Market Canaries: Chirp, Warble… Soon a Croak and Silence? - 19th May 18
Three Drivers of Gold Price - 18th May 18
Gold Market in First Tertile of 2018 - 18th May 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Lessons

Weighing the Probabilities for EURUSD GOLD and the DOW

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017 May 14, 2017 - 03:22 PM GMT

By: Enda_Glynn

Stock-Markets

My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: G7 Meetings. USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index,


Welcome to another weekend.
The time is ticking by!

And these price structures are developing slowly, but nicely all the same.
Lets dig into it!

EURUSD has traced out a possible five waves to the downside this week.
The price broke support at 1.0850 for a brief moment and has rallied back strongly in a possible wave 'a' green today.

The price has reached the first resistance level this evening at 1.0930,
This is the 50% retracement level of wave 'i' pink.
So if this is the beginning of a corrective rise in wave 'ii' pink,
then we need to see wave 'b' and 'c' happen early next week.

price must stay below the upper resistance at 1.1021 in order for this immediately bearish wave count to remain valid.
A break of the high will merely postpone the turn down for another week or so.
I have shown an idealized path for a zigzag correction to take, so lets concentrate on that next week,


My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: G7 Meetings. USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index,

The sideways action has continued today in cable.
The wave count calls for one more rally into wave (v) brown to complete the larger corrective structure in wave (4) blue.
This remains the focus next week.
The upper target lies at 1.3050, where the price will tag the upper trendline one last time.
So there is the potential for a cheeky long position into that high!
A break of 1.2900 will signal the final rally is underway.
From a larger perspective,
The 4hr momentum indicators have already given a general sell signal
With a centreline cross to the downside yesterday, any new high will be short lived.
For next week, watch for a major top to form,
This one will be remembered for a while.


My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: G7 Meetings. USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index,

The lows of the days trade seem to have closed out wave 'c' pink.
The correction in wave 'iv' brown has traced out an expanded flat so far.
The support at 112.95 must not be crossed in this wave count.
Wave 'iv' should not cross into the price territory of wave 'i' brown.
So that high is important in the early trade next week.
watch for the formation of a higher low off 113.19.

A break of the wave 'i' high will trigger the alternate count shown circled in red.
This views wave [ii] grey as already underway.
At the moment 112.95 is the price to watch.

My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index, G7 Meetings

I have shown both operating and the alternate wave counts in the short term chart tonight.
The reason being,
They are both equally likely at this stage!
The action over the last few days has lifted the probability of one last high in the DOW to 50% right now,
The action off yesterdays high has tipped the scales alot.
This decline looks corrective and sits in a nice trend channel shown in blue.
So, the action off this weeks low looks like a wave '1' and '2' combination.
This is bullish in the short term as it is calling for a rally next week in wave '3' blue.
this rally has the potential to carry the the market to a new all time high and one last party on wall street.
Do not confuse this short term bullish view as a shift into a completely bullish stance.
Oh, no no no no no!
What we are witnessing in slow motion is a multi decade cycle coming to and end.
This takes time, but the larger degree wave count has not changed one iota!
The next big move in the stock market is to the downside,
And almost certainly in the form of a massive crash.
I have no doubt in my mind about that.
But a market top is a process, not a moment in time.
Each new iteration of the wave count draws us inevitably closer to the actual top.
The wave count will catch it first, the rest of world will catch on after the ATM ques form!
You wont find me standing in line.

For next week 20798 is the focus.
If that line holds and wave '2' blue completes in a three wave fashion,
This will lead to a large move up in wave '3' blue.

Enda Glynn
http://bullwaves.org
I am an Elliott wave trader,
I have studied and traded using Elliott wave analysis as the backbone of my approach to markets for the last 10 years.
I take a top down approach to market analysis
starting at the daily time frame all the way down to the 30 minute time frame.

© 2017 Copyright Enda Glynn - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules