Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Tesco Shelves, Stock Piling, Hoarding Preppers - 22nd Mar 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing - 21st Mar 20
Your Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade—Fix It with the “Anti-Stock” - 21st Mar 20
CORONA HOAX: This Is Almost Completely Contrived and Here’s Proof - 21st Mar 20
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 - 21st Mar 20
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test - 21st Mar 20
Napag and Napag Trading Best Petroleum & Crude Oil Company - 21st Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - Government PANICs! Sterling Crashes! - 20th Mar 20
UK Critical Care Nurse Cries at Empty SuperMarket Shelves, Coronavirus Panic Buying Stockpiling - 20th Mar 20
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War - 20th Mar 20
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin - 20th Mar 20
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking - 20th Mar 20
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - 20th Mar 20
The Coronavirus Contraction - Only Cooperation Can Defeat Impending Global Crisis - 20th Mar 20
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? - 20th Mar 20
Alessandro De Dorides - Business Consultant - 20th Mar 20
Why a Second Depression is Possible but Not Likely - 20th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Theresa May's Political Spectrum Impact on the UK General Election 2017

ElectionOracle / UK General Election May 31, 2017 - 05:42 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

For at least the past 30 years, Leaders and parties that most closely appeal to the centre ground tend to win UK general elections. Which is why Labour repeatedly lost election after election during the 1980's and most of the 1990's because whilst Margaret Thatcher was to the right of the political spectrum, Labour was far further to the left and it would take a long hard battle fought by first Neil Kinnock and then John Smith who paved the way for Tony Blair to firmly occupy the centre ground for the next 13 years, even delivering Tony Blair several landslide election victories that Theresa May hopes to replicate.


Left or Right of Tory Centre

David Cameron was clearly to the left of the Tory centre, which explains why he got on so well with Nick Clegg, because they really did have a lot in common and if circumstances had been a little different David Cameron could well have found himself to be a Liberal Democrat. Whilst John Major's weak premiership mostly occupied the centre ground and definetly to the left of Margaret Thatcher, and he may well have done bother had been less grey. Still he did shock all with his surprise election win in 1992, that the pollsters got very badly wrong.

So where does Theresa May stand on the political spectrum?

Firstly, BrExit means nationalism and protectionism which is what the Tory manifesto alludes to and Theresa May repeats when she says that she would be willing to walk away from a bad EU deal i.e. No deal. Therefore Theresa May will be the most nationalist and protectionist Prime Minister for a good 50 years! Which nudges her to the right of Margaret Thatcher on this respect which appeals to the likes of the Tory right and UKIP.

Whilst on the other hand the Tory Manifesto is clearly more aimed at redistributing wealth from the wealthy i.e. forcing wealthy pensioners receiving care in their own homes for their their properties to no longer be exempt, and at the same time raising the threshold of protected assets from £23k to £100k which benefits the poorer pensioners, all of which suggests that Theresa May is left of Tory centre on social policies, even though she has backtracked a little since publication of the manifesto by stating that there would be a yet to be determined cap on how much each pensioner assets / homes would fund their social care.

So apart from BrExit, the 84 page manifesto appears it could be have been written by Tony Blair, David Cameron, or even Ed Milliband as the BrExit vote killed off austerity a year ago, and so there were lots of promises to spend more but without any tax rises to pay for them, hence a lot more borrowing, so basically the same centrist policies as Blair. Which is probably why Theresa May appeals to so many Labour brexiteers. And she is protectionist / nationalist rather than globalist, as have been every Prime Minster since the 1970's, which explains why she appeals so strongly to most UKIP voters.

Theresa May's words, actions and policies are hovering up many Labour and most UKIP voters whilst maintaining the Tory heartland, for they have nowhere else to go, hence why she is heading for strong election victory, regardless of what the gyrating all over the place opinion polls suggest as illustrated by YoGovs most recent poll warning of a Hung Parliament.

So whilst Theresa May is a little right of centre than David Cameron, which on face value would have suggested that she would do worse than David Cameron had in 2015. However the whole political spectrum has swing slightly further to the right since May 2015, which is why BrExit happened in the wake of year after year of out of control EU migration that both Labour and the Tory party ignored for more than a decade and which sowed the seeds for the BrExit outcome that will carry Theresa May far beyond the threshold set by David Cameron.

And then we have Jeremy Corbyn who has swung the Labour party far to the left of the centre ground that Tony Blair so successfully occupied. He may not be as far left as Michael Foot of 1983, but Labour has definitely gone back to the 1980's which further confirms that Theresa May should be heading for a very strong election victory.

And here are the seats per party forecasts based on the local election results and the opinion pollsters

UK Local Election Results Forecast for General Election 2017

Opinion Polls Based UK General Election Seats Per Party Forecast 2017

Opinion Polls Based UK General Election Seats Per Party Forecast 2017

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for the next analysis in this series as I countdown to my UK general election 2017 final forecast conclusion and to our youtube channel for videos in this and the BrExit War series.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules