Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Five Charts That Show We Are on the Brink of an Unthinkable Financial Crisis- John_Mauldin
2.Bitcoin Parabolic Mania - Zeal_LLC
3.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – 2 - Raul_I_Meijer
4.Best Time / Month of Year to BUY a USED Car is DECEMBER, UK Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Labour Sheffield City Council Election Panic Could Prompt Suspension of Tree Felling's Private Security - N_Walayat
6.War on Gold Intensifies: It Betrays the Elitists’ Panic and Augurs Their Coming Defeat Part2 - Stewart_Dougherty
7.How High Will Gold Go? - Harry_Dent
8.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – Forks and Mad Max - Raul_I_Meijer
9.UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall - GoldCore
10.New EU Rules For Cross-Border Cash, Gold Bullion Movements - GoldCore
Last 7 days
SPX, NDX, INDU and RUT Stock Indices all at Resistance Levels - 16th Jan 18
Silver Prices To Surge – JP Morgan Has Acquired A “Massive Quantity of Physical Silver” - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Bankruptcy and the PFI Sector Spiraling Costs Crisis, Amey, G4S, Balfour Beatty, Serco.... - 16th Jan 18
Artificial Intelligence - Extermination of Humanity - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Goes Bust, as Government Refuses to Bailout PFI Contractors Debt and Pensions Liabilities - 15th Jan 18
What Really Happens in Iran?  - 15th Jan 18
Stock Market Near an Intermediate Top? - 15th Jan 18
The Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018 - 15th Jan 18
London Property Market Crash Looms As Prices Drop To 2 1/2 Year Low - 15th Jan 18
Some Fascinating Stock Market Fibonacci Relationships... - 15th Jan 18
How to Know If This Stock Market Rally Will Continue for Two More Months? - 14th Jan 18
Everything SMIGGLE from Pencil Cases to Water Bottles, Pens and Springs! - 14th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Very Bad MPG Fuel Economy! Real Owner's Review - 14th Jan 18
Gold Miners’ Status Updated - 13th Jan 18
Gold And Silver – Review of Annual, Qrtly, Monthly, Weekly Charts. Reality v Sentiment - 13th Jan 18
Gold GLD ETF Update.. Bear Market Reversal Watch - 13th Jan 18
Stock Market Leadership In 2018 To Come From Oil & Gas - 13th Jan 18
Stock Market Primed for a Reversal - 13th Jan 18
Live Trading Webinar: Discover 3 High-Confidence Trade Set-Ups - 13th Jan 18
Optimum Entry Point for Gold and Silver Stocks - 12th Jan 18
Stock Selloffs Great for Gold - 12th Jan 18
These 3 Facts Show Gold Is Set to Surge in 2018 - 12th Jan 18
How China is Locking Up Critical Resources in the US’s Own Backyard - 12th Jan 18
Stock futures are struggling. May reverse Today - 12th Jan 18
Three Surprising Places You See Cryptocurrency - 12th Jan 18
Semi Seconductor Stocks Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018 - 12th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Panoramic Sunroof Questions Answered - 12th Jan 18
Information About Trading With Alpari And Its Advantages - 12th Jan 18
Stock Market Investing 2018 - “I Hope I’m Making a Bad Buy” - 11th Jan 18
S&P 500 Fluctuates As Stock Market May Be Topping, Or Not? - 11th Jan 18
SPECTRE Microprocessor Security Flaw - Big Brother = You - 11th Jan 18
7 Market Forecasts 2018 from the Brightest Financial Minds I Know - 11th Jan 18
It’s Not Enough to Be Contrarian - 11th Jan 18
Stocks That Take One for A Roller Coaster Ride Through the Thick And Thin Of Every Single Investment Made - 11th Jan 18
Police Arrest Tree Protester on Meersbrook Park Road, Sheffield - 10th Jan 18
Stock Market Aggressive Sell Signals - 10th Jan 18
The 2018 Decline in Precious Metals - 10th Jan 18
Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies - 10th Jan 18
TMV : 3X Leveraged Short on US Treasury Bonds - 10th Jan 18
Here are the Key Levels in Gold & Gold Miners - 10th Jan 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

6 Critical Money Making Rules

US Dollar Acceleration Phase is Dead Ahead!

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017 Jun 14, 2017 - 01:03 PM GMT

By: Enda_Glynn

Stock-Markets

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Press Conference.


USDJPY continued its impulsive move to the upside today in what may be the beginning of wave 'iii' brown.
This evenings slide looks corrective and is in three waves at the moment.
I have labelled todays action as wave '1' and '2' in pink.

Looking across the three USD cross rates that I follow in the nightly analysis I can see a common theme.
That is; A Dollar acceleration phase is dead ahead!

In USDJPY, that should come in the form of wave '3' of 'iii' of (i) of [iii]
Now thats a mouthful!

yesterdays low of 109.62 id the short term support/ invalidation line.
This level needs to hold from here.

The 4hr momentum is also looking bullish where we are on the verge of MACD and RSI bullish signals.
For tomorrow, watch 110.27 for an upside break.

My Bias: market topping process ongoing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Press Conference.

Today price action in the DOW brought another new all time high that is three in the last week.
The action following the previous highs is a little concerning.
Let me explain.
The ending diagonal idea is gaining strength as the days go on.
The contracting price range,
The sudden drops from new highs,
And an ever worsening market internals situation are all pointing to a nearby top.

These sudden drops are a symptom of cascading disbelief in the rally.
One trader sells the new high and a slew of traders follow.

Remember;
This market is built on self reinforcing rallies at this stage,
Where people believe the price will rally because the price is rallying!
And so they buy, because the price is rallying.

Fundamental discounted cash flow valuations have been trashed like last weekends pizza box at this stage!
But that does not mean we cant learn from those fact based time tested methods,
And those methods tell us that the market is overvalued by about 140% above what historical norms would allow
given the discounted future cash flows of the companies within the index!

So;
Valuations tell us that a minimum correction of about 60% is required just to bring the price back into line with long term valuations.
But of course the correction will not stop at a 60% decline!
The price will undershoot valuations significantly before turning up again for the long term.

For the short term,
The rally off the low labeled wave '2' blue is still in three waves,
Which suggests a corrective rise.
If the price meets the trendline and turns down,
then either wave '2' is still completing or the alternate wave count is emerging as the preferred.

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Press Conference.

GOLD has popped slightly today off the projected low and support at 1258.
the price reached a low of 1259.13 and has risen encouragingly in the afternoon trade.

The first resistance lies at 1271, the low marked wave 'a' pink.
A break of that level and the formation of a higher low will signal a turn up is likely form here.

The 4hr RSI has turned up again forming a bullish higher low of the extreme low last month.
Another bullish momentum signal is on the cards in the coming days.

When I look at the COT data, I can see that open interest has flat lined and bullish positions are building again.
So the appetite is there for a rally to commence.

For the next couple of days I have my eyes firmly fixed on 1280.87, the previous wave 'b'.
An impulsive break of that high will set the structure up for run higher in wave 'iii'.
Corrections have plagued this market of late.
Thats about to change!

Enda Glynn
http://bullwaves.org
I am an Elliott wave trader,
I have studied and traded using Elliott wave analysis as the backbone of my approach to markets for the last 10 years.
I take a top down approach to market analysis
starting at the daily time frame all the way down to the 30 minute time frame.

© 2017 Copyright Enda Glynn - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules