Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - Jeff_Berwick
2.Fragile Stock Market Bull in a China Shop -James_Quinn
3.Sheffield Leafy Suburbs Tree Felling's Triggering House Prices CRASH! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Government Finances and Gold - Cautionary Tale told in Four Charts - Michael_J_Kosares
6.Gold Stocks Winter Rally - Zeal_LLC
7.The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? - Plunger
8.Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - MarketsToday
9.Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom - Stewart_Dougherty
10.Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - Jim_Willie_CB
Last 7 days
Universal Credits Christmas Scrooge Nightmare for Weekly Pay Recipients - 18th Nov 17
Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom - 18th Nov 17
Facebook Traders: Tech Giant + Technical Analysis = Thumbs Up - 18th Nov 17
Games Betting System For NCAA Basketball Sports Betting - Know Your Betting Limits - 18th Nov 17
Universal Credit Doomsday for Tax Credits Cash ISA Savers, Here's What to Do - 18th Nov 17
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Q3 2017 - 17th Nov 17
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing - 17th Nov 17
Mystery of Inflation and Gold - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Ready To Pull The Rug Out From Under You! - 17th Nov 17
Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 - 17th Nov 17
Play Free Online Games and Save Money Free Virtual Online Games - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Crash Omens & Predictions: Another Day Another Lie - 16th Nov 17
Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe - 16th Nov 17
Announcing Free Trader's Workshop: Battle-Tested Tools to Boost Your Trading Confidence - 16th Nov 17
Instructions to Stop a Dispossession Home Sale and How to Purchase Astutely at Abandonment Home - 16th Nov 17
Trump’s Asia Tour: From Old Conflicts to New Prospects - 16th Nov 17
Bonds And Stocks Will Crash Together In The Next Crisis (Meanwhile, Bond Yields Are Going Up) - 16th Nov 17
A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near - 16th Nov 17
Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - 16th Nov 17
Gold’s Long-term Analogies - 16th Nov 17
Does Stripping Streets of ALL of their Trees Impact House Prices (Sheffield Example)? - 15th Nov 17
The Trump Administration’s IP Battle Against China - 15th Nov 17
5 Ways Bitcoin can Improve its Odds of Becoming the Future of Money - 15th Nov 17
These Headlines Say Gold is Building a Base for Something Big - 15th Nov 17
Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection - 14th Nov 17
Gold on the Ledge, Trend Forecast - 14th Nov 17
The Unbearable Slowness Of Fourth Turnings - 14th Nov 17
Silver Sign’s Confirmation & More - 14th Nov 17
Could This Be The End for Tesla? - 14th Nov 17
Harry Dent’s Fourth Cycle: More Evidence of Stock Market Downturn - 14th Nov 17
Why Having Good Credit Is Important If You Want to Invest - 14th Nov 17
The Bitcoin Bubble Explained in 4 Charts - 13th Nov 17
How the US Has Secretly Subsidized China to Produce Eco-Unfriendly Solar Panels - 13th Nov 17
The Increasingly Unstable Middle East Must Be On Every Investor’s Radar - 13th Nov 17
Stock Market Critical Supports are Being Challenged - 13th Nov 17
The One Chart All Investors Should See Before 2018 - 13th Nov 17
Short-Term Stock Market Uncertainty Following Recent Rally, Will Stocks Continue Higher? - 13th Nov 17
Is Hillary Just the “Fall Guy” for the Intel Agencies and their Moneybags Bosses? - 12th Nov 17
Stock Market Correction Phase - 12th Nov 17
Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - 12th Nov 17
Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - 11th Nov 17
E-franc, E-krona... E-volution? - 11th Nov 17
Gold Investment Stalled - 11th Nov 17
Smart Ways to Get Loans Online - 11th Nov 17
What Can Pot Teach Us About Economics and Government? - 10th Nov 17
Can Stocks and Bonds go Down at the Same Time? - 10th Nov 17
Gold Market 2017 Will We See a Replay of 2015 and 2016? - 10th Nov 17
Oil markets turn bullish with shift to backwardation - 10th Nov 17
The Strange Behavior of Gold Investors from Monday to Thursday - 10th Nov 17
Where to Start Your Cryptocurrency Company - 10th Nov 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Forex Trading Free Week

The US Dollar Bull Case

Currencies / US Dollar Jun 15, 2017 - 03:09 PM GMT

By: Rambus_Chartology

Currencies

I see just about everyone has their own theory or trading discipline on where the US dollar is headed next. It’s all these different ideas that make the markets work. Everyone can’t be bullish at the bottom or bearish at the top, it’s just the way it has to be.

For my 2 cents worth I’m still looking at the possible fractal, bullish rising wedge as a halfway pattern to the upside. I did an in depth report on currencies and the US dollar several months ago in which I showed how it could play out. Since that report the US dollar has declined down to the point, where if the fractal is going to work, now is the time for the US dollar to put in its bottom.


If you recall earlier this year the US dollar began building out a falling wedge while gold was building out a rising wedge. At the time I thought the US dollar would breakout topside and gold would breakout to the downside, but the markets never make it easy for you. A month or so ago when it became apparent that the US dollar was breaking down, I posted this daily chart looking for a measured move down to the 96.20 using the impulse method as shown by the blue arrows. The breakout to breakout method was a little lower at 95.45. So far the US dollar has reached a low of 96.45 were it has been chopping sideways for the last 2 weeks. If this is going to be an important low then we will most likely see some type of reversal pattern building out such as a double bottom or H&S bottom. So far we don’t have a recognizable reversal pattern in place. All the indicators are suggesting a potential low in here, but I want to see a reversal pattern before I get too excited.

It was this 35 year monthly chart for the US dollar which led to to the discovery of the 2 fractal bases labeled big base #1 and big base #2 back in March 2013.

Editor’s Note: If you are interested here is the Whole Post from March 2013 ” Dollar Bears Prepare to Hibernate”

…………………………………………..

If I remember correctly it took close to a year after I discover these potential fractals before they came to fruition and vindication on my part. Seeing a large pattern like that building out well before its completion sews a lot of seeds of doubt. The vertical move out of fractal base #2 left no doubt that what I had been seeing a year earlier was in fact correct.

There is a lot of information on this chart so lets start by looking the two blue arrows which shows the first impulse leg up into the first reversal point in the blue bullish rising wedges in big base #1 and big base #2 which were exactly the same length. Reversal point #2 in both blue rising wedge found support at 92, thin horizontal black dashed line. From reversal point #2 they both rallied up to reversal point #3 at 104 which is the top for each blue rising wedge.

We are now at the most critical spot on the blue rising wedge fractal which is reversal point #4 and why the measured move down to 96.20, on the daily chart above, is so important. If the price action doesn’t hold around the 96.20 area and drops lower, then the bottom rail of the blue rising wedge won’t have the slope needed to have a rising wedge. The lower the price goes the lower the angle of the bottom rail. The top rail of both blue rising wedges are the exact same angle, but rising wedge #2 needs to bottom right here to be close to the same angle of rising wedge #1.

This next chart is a weekly look at the 1995 to 2001 bull market rally in the US dollar with the blue bullish rising wedge being the halfway pattern. The price objective was up to the 122 area as measured by the blue arrows. You can also see a H&S reversal pattern that began that massive rally and one to end the rally.

This last chart for the US dollar shows our current impulse leg up using the still incomplete bullish rising wedge as a halfway pattern. If the fractal is going to play out the 4th reversal point will need to hold support. Blue fractal #1 took 32 months to build out so if our current fractal is close in time we should see a breakout in October of this year which has a price objective up to 122 as shown by the blue arrows.

As I’ve stated many times in the past, when a fractal works it can be very rewarding, but a lot of the time they can fail at the last minute and everything comes to an abrupt end. This is where we’re at right now at reversal point #4.

This last chart is a combo chart which has the US dollar on top gold on the bottom. The moment of truth has arrived. All the best…Rambus

All the best

Rambus

https://goldtadise.com

© 2017 Copyright Rambus- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Rambus Chartology Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife