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Trading Lessons

Gold Will Start Heading Higher On “Dwindling” Supply

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017 Jun 19, 2017 - 03:32 PM GMT

By: GoldCore

Commodities

James Rickards via Daily Reckoning

Gold was down after the Fed’s hike, but I expect it to start heading higher again. Too many powerful forces are driving it behind the scenes. Dwindling physical supply is a major one.


Gold in USD (5 Years)

On a recent visit to Switzerland, I was informed that secure logistics operators could not build new vaults fast enough and were taking over nuclear-bomb proof mountain bunkers from the Swiss Army to handle the demand for private storage.

Geopolitical fear is another. The crises in North Korea, Syria, Iran, the South China Sea, and Venezuela are not getting better. The headlines may fade in any given week, but geopolitical shocks will return when least expected and send gold soaring in a flight to safety.

Fed policy tightening is normally a headwind for gold. But, the last two times the Fed raised rates — December 14, 2016 and March 15, 2017 — gold rallied as if on cue.

Gold is the most forward-looking of any major market. It may be the case that the gold market sees the Fed is tightening into weakness and will eventually over-tighten and cause a recession.

At that point, the Fed will pivot back to easing through forward guidance. That will result in more inflation and a weaker dollar, which is the perfect environment for gold.

In short, all signs point to higher gold prices in the months ahead based on Fed ease, geopolitical tensions, and a weaker dollar.

The Fed’s Road Ahead is James Rickards latest piece for the Daily Reckoning. This is an excerpt & the full article can be read here

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

19 Jun: USD 1,251.10, GBP 976.86 & EUR 1,117.73 per ounce
16 Jun: USD 1,256.60, GBP 984.04 & EUR 1,124.03 per ounce
15 Jun: USD 1,260.25, GBP 992.57 & EUR 1,127.67 per ounce
14 Jun: USD 1,268.25, GBP 995.83 & EUR 1,131.41 per ounce
13 Jun: USD 1,261.30, GBP 992.26 & EUR 1,125.33 per ounce
12 Jun: USD 1,269.25, GBP 998.14 & EUR 1,131.28 per ounce
09 Jun: USD 1,274.25, GBP 1,001.31 & EUR 1,139.18 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

19 Jun: USD 16.67, GBP 13.02 & EUR 14.87 per ounce
16 Jun: USD 16.86, GBP 13.19 & EUR 15.10 per ounce
15 Jun: USD 16.86, GBP 13.19 & EUR 15.10 per ounce
14 Jun: USD 16.96, GBP 13.32 & EUR 15.14 per ounce
13 Jun: USD 16.82, GBP 13.21 & EUR 15.01 per ounce
12 Jun: USD 17.13, GBP 13.50 & EUR 15.27 per ounce

Mark O'Byrne

Executive Director

This update can be found on the GoldCore blog here.

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