Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come - James_Quinn
3.UK House Prices Momentum Crash Warns of 2017 Bear Market - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together - Rambus_Chartology
6.Global Currency Reserve At Risk - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Gold and Silver: Your Stomach Is Probably Wrenching Right Now - The_Gold_Report
8.Warning: The Fed Is Preparing to Crash the Financial System Again - Graham_Summers
9.Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts - Rambus_Chartology
10.Discover Why A Major American Revolution Is Brewing - Harry_Dent
Last 7 days
The Stock Market Guns of August, Trade Set-Up & Removing your Rose Tinted Glasses - 16th Aug 17
Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and Serbia, Camp Kotok 2017 - 16th Aug 17
U.S. Stock Market: Sunrise ... Sunset - 16th Aug 17
The Next Tech Crash Could Delay Your Retirement by a Decade - 15th Aug 17
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Nearing Breakout - 15th Aug 17
North Korea Showdown: Pivotal Market Turning Point - 15th Aug 17
Tech Stocks DOT COM Bubble Do-Over? - 14th Aug 17
Deep State Conspiracy or Chaos - 14th Aug 17
From the Trans-Atlantic Axis and the Trans-Asian Axis - 14th Aug 17
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Underway - 14th Aug 17
The Islamic State Jihadi Pivot to Asia - 13th Aug 17
Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold - 13th Aug 17
North Korean Chinese Proxy vs US Military Empire Trending Towards Nuclear War! - 12th Aug 17
Gold Stocks Coiled Spring - 12th Aug 17
Neil Howe: The Amazon-Walmart Rivalry Will Determine the Future of Retail - 12th Aug 17
How to Alton Towers Half Price Discount Entry 2017 and 2018, Any Time, No Pre-Booking! - 12th Aug 17
Top 3 Technical Trading Tools Part 2: Relative Strength Index (RSI) - 11th Aug 17
What Makes Women Better Investors - 11th Aug 17
Crude Oil Price Precious Metals Link in August - 11th Aug 17
Influencer Marketing Predictions All Businesses Should Take Into Account - 11th Aug 17
Really Bad Ideas - Government Debt Isn’t Actually Debt - 10th Aug 17
Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat - 9th Aug 17
Why Is The Stock Market Not Trading On Fundamentals Lately? - 9th Aug 17
USD/CAD - Can We Trust This Breakout? - 9th Aug 17
New Monthly Rebate to Help Reduce Your Trading Costs - 9th Aug 17
Stock Market Divergences Are Now Appearing! - 9th Aug 17
Is Inflation an issue or did the Fed Mess Up? - 8th Aug 17
Top 3 Technical Trading Tools Part 1: Japanese Candlesticks - 8th Aug 17
Researchers Find $10 Billion Hidden Treasure In A Dead Volcano - 8th Aug 17
What Happened to Thousands of Sheffield's Street Trees 2017 - Fellings Documentary - 8th Aug 17
Solar, Bubble, Banks, War, and Legal Tender: Five Reasons Why You Should Buy Silver Now - 7th Aug 17
CRASH - If Some People Do It, Nothing Bad Happens, But If Everyone Does It, All Hell Breaks Loose - 7th Aug 17
Gold and Silver : The Battle for Control - 7th Aug 17
Precious Metals Sector is on Major Buy Signal - 7th Aug 17
Stock Market - Has Time Run Out? - 7th Aug 17
Get Ready for an Historic Upside Gold and Silver Run - 7th Aug 17
BOOM! Bitcoin Rockets To New All-Time High As Cryptocurrencies Surge Higher! - 7th Aug 17
U.S. Dollar: This Crash Signals the End - 6th Aug 17
Predicting The Price Of Gold Is A Fool’s Game - 6th Aug 17
Asda Sales Collapse and Profits Crash! UK Retailer Sector Crisis 2017 - 6th Aug 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

Stock Market SPX Uptrending Again After Microscopic Correction

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Jul 15, 2017 - 03:21 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the week at SPX 2425. After a rally to SPX 2432 on Monday, the market pulled back to 2413 on Tuesday before reversing in the afternoon. Wednesday’s gap up opening rally continued into Friday, when the SPX hit a new all-time high at 2464. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.90%. Economic reports were mostly positive. On the downtick: the Q2 GDP estimate, retail sales, consumer sentiment, plus the budget deficit widened. On the uptick: consumer credit, business/wholesale inventories, the PPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, plus jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the NY/Philly FED and housing.


LONG TERM: uptrend

The Major wave 1, of Primary III, bull market continues. After a microscopic 2% correction in the SPX, 4% correction in the NAZ, and no correction in the DOW, the SPX/DOW made new all-time highs on Friday. We checked back to 1982, and could not find a SPX correction this small in a bull market. Quite unusual correctional activity lately.

The long-term count remains unchanged. A Primary II bear market low at SPX 1810 in February 2016. Then Major 1 of Primary III began. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Minor waves 1 and 2, of Int. iii, completed in the fall of 2016. Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. Then Minor wave 5/ Int. iii, or a subdivision of Minor 5 completed in June. More on this below.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

After the NDX/NAZ topped in early-June we waited for the 5th wave up in the SPX to complete. Which it did at SPX 2454. After that we were expecting at least a 5% correction, OEW 2321 pivot, as well as a correction in the NDX/NAZ/DOW. Last week the SPX/NDX/NAZ all confirmed downtrends, but the DOW oddly did not. Nevertheless the correction was unfolding with lower highs and mostly lower lows.

Early this week that all changed. After a rally to SPX 2432, which looked normal, the market failed to make a lower low for the second time: 2413, 2408 versus 2406. After the gap up opening on Wednesday it was clear that SPX 2406/2408 was a low of some importance. The market continued to move higher on Thursday, then made all-time highs on Friday. This activity suggests two possible scenarios.

The SPX 2406 low ended Minor wave A, and a Minor B is underway with a maximum of the OEW 2479 pivot range. Then a Minor C down would complete an irregular Int. wave iv. The second scenario is that Minor wave 5 is subdividing. Should the 2479 pivot range be exceeded then this is the likely scenario. This would suggest SPX 2454 was only Minute i, and the small correction to SPX 2408 Minute ii. Medium term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots.

SHORT TERM

After the SPX 2454 uptrend high, the market declined in a series of overlapping waves to 2408 last week. After that the market has rallied in three waves up: 2432-2413-2464. With the third wave including a gap up. Thus far this looks impulsive, favoring the Minute iii scenario. A decline below SPX 2432 would turn it into a corrective move, and the correction would likely resume. Either way it is a bull market.

Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week extremely overbought.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher on the week and gained 1.7%.

European markets were also all higher and gained 1.6%.

The DJ World index gained 2.1%, and the NYSE gained 1.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in a downtrend but gained 0.6%.

Crude is trying to uptrend and gained 5.2%.

Gold remains in a downtrend but gained 1.5%.

The USD is also in a downtrend and lost 0.9%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: NY FED at 8:30. Tuesday: import prices and the homebuilders index. Wednesday: housing starts and building permits. Thursday: jobless claims, the Philly FED and leading indicators. Friday: options expiration. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife