Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy - 11th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I - 11th Sep 19
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting - 11th Sep 19
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed - 11th Sep 19
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister - 11th Sep 19
Gold Significant Correction Has Started - 11th Sep 19
Reasons To Follow Experienced Traders In Automated Trading - 11th Sep 19
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back - 11th Sep 19
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History - 11th Sep 19
Westminister BrExit Extreme Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State - 10th Sep 19
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally - 10th Sep 19
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future - 10th Sep 19
The Online Gaming Industry is Going Up - 10th Sep 19
The Unknown Tech Stock Transforming The Internet - 10th Sep 19
More Wall Street Propaganda - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Price Structure Still Suggests We Are Within Volatile Rotation - 9th Sep 19
Stock Market Still Treading Water - 9th Sep 19
Buying Pullbacks in Silver & Gold - 9th Sep 19
Government Spending - The High Price of a "Free Lunch" - 9th Sep 19
Don't Worry About a Recession - 9th Sep 19
Large Drop in Stocks, Big Rally in Gold and Silver - 9th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The No1 Tech Stock for 2019

How to Win Against the Dangerous Stock Market Investor "Herding Impulse"

Stock-Markets / Learning to Invest Aug 04, 2017 - 12:37 PM GMT

By: EWI

Stock-Markets

We all love a bargain...

...Except when it comes to stocks.

The reason boils down to uncertainty. We know what our fruits and vegetables should cost at the grocer's -- but we're far less certain about how much to pay for a blue-chip stock or shares in an S&P 500 Index fund.

So how does our mind work in decisions that involve certainty vs. uncertainty?


Robert Prechter and Wayne Parker, co-authors of the paper, The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspectiveā€¯ (Journal of Behavioral Finance, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 84-108, 2007) explain that in each situation, very different regions of the brain take over -- literally.

When we spend money as consumers, we depend on the neocortex region of the brain, where our ability to reason resides.

For example, if we shop for groceries and see our favorite fruit on sale at a 40 percent discount, we think "That's a good deal. I make the best use of my money by buying it now." And, if we hang around to watch how other shoppers behave, we see that particular item sell out sooner than usual. In other words: The demand for consumer goods rises as the price falls.

But when we spend money as investors, our brain relies on the more primitive region -- the basal ganglia -- which drives unconscious behavior such as herding.

Let's say that 30 minutes after the stock market opens, we see that the blue-chip stock we own is down 20 percent. We know that shareholders are fleeing the stock. The basal ganglia screams, "They know something I don't. I'd better sell too." In this case, demand for the asset FALLS as the price falls. Why?

Because in speculative markets, assets have no true utility. An investor buys it today in the hope that it will be worth more to another investor tomorrow. But that future value is uncertain, so the brain defaults to herding.

The sketch of the brain shows the locations of the conscious, reasoning neocortex and the unconscious, impulsive lower areas:

In other words, herding impulses force you to "buy high -- and sell low," precisely the opposite of what you should be doing.

Can you win? Yes.

Instead of getting wrapped up in the day's news, when you study the collective psychology of market participants, you see the markets objectively -- and separate yourself from the herd.

You can see the market's psychology shift right before your eyes -- when you look at price charts. The trends you see are not random; they are patterned according to the Elliott Wave Principle: 5 waves in the direction of the trend, and 3 waves against it.

When you know these patterns, you can make probability-based forecasts.

Elliott Wave Basic Tutorial

If you are prepared to take the next step in educating yourself about the basics of the Wave Principle -- access the FREE Online Tutorial from Elliott Wave International.

The Elliott Wave Basic Tutorial is a 10-lesson comprehensive online course with the same content you'd receive in a formal training class -- but you can learn at your own pace and review the material as many times as you like!

Get 10 FREE Lessons on The Elliott Wave Principle that Will Change the Way You Invest Forever.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How to Win Against the Dangerous "Herding Impulse". EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules