Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - Jeff_Berwick
2.Fragile Stock Market Bull in a China Shop -James_Quinn
3.Sheffield Leafy Suburbs Tree Felling's Triggering House Prices CRASH! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Government Finances and Gold - Cautionary Tale told in Four Charts - Michael_J_Kosares
6.Gold Stocks Winter Rally - Zeal_LLC
7.The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? - Plunger
8.Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - MarketsToday
9.Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom - Stewart_Dougherty
10.Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - Jim_Willie_CB
Last 7 days
Who Knows What Will Black Gold Do in Coming Week? - 18th Dec 17
Gold’s Shooting Star and Its Implications - 18th Dec 17
UK Used Car Christmas From Dealers Buying Discount Sales Bargains - 18th Dec 17
How To Play The 2018 Cannabis Boom - 18th Dec 17
Should You Consider Investing/ Buying Gold or Bitcoin? - 18th Dec 17
Gold EFPs: Absolute Proof that the Paper Gold Price is a Fraud - 18th Dec 17
Gold – Technical Obfuscation, Fundamentals, Predictions - 18th Dec 17
Stock Market Final Thrust is Likely - 17th Dec 17
Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s a Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard - 17th Dec 17
As Bitcoin Breaks All-Time Highs Near $18,000 Its Future Has Never Been So Uncertain - 17th Dec 17
Best Time / Month to Buy a Used Car From a UK Dealer - 16th Dec 17
Relief Rally in Gold Mining Stocks - 16th Dec 17
Amid Bad Fundamentals, Gold Sector Rally May Have Begun - 16th Dec 17
Gold Bullish on US Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Dec 17
The LORAX Explains What Happened to Sheffield's Street Trees 2017 - 16th Dec 17
Bitcoin Trading Alert: Bitcoin Pauses – Will Appreciation Follow? - 16th Dec 17
SanDisk Ultra 128gb 100mbs Micro SD Card for Smartphone's Speed Test - 15th Dec 17
Inflation is Spiking Globally… Bond Bubble Bursts in 3… 2… - 15th Dec 17
Sheffield's 'Real' LORAX Defending the Trees From the Labour City Council Patrol Units - 15th Dec 17
Stock Market Decline Signals are Near - 15th Dec 17
Santa Is Putting Christmas On The Blockchain And Saving Billions - 14th Dec 17
The Unprotected, the Protected, the Vulnerably Protected Classes—Which Are You? - 14th Dec 17
Gold’s Upside Target - 14th Dec 17
Year-end US Interest Rate Hike Again Proves To Be Launchpad For Gold Price - 14th Dec 17
2 Charts That Might Define the Fed’s Jerome Powell Era - 13th Dec 17
UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall - 13th Dec 17
Stock Market Elliott Wave Forecasts - Is the World coming to the end? - 13th Dec 17
A Method Traders Can Use to Confirm an Elliott Wave Count - 13th Dec 17
Best Time / Month of Year to BUY a USED Car is DECEMBER, UK Analysis - 13th Dec 17
A Former Wall Street Veteran: Good Traders Are Born, Not Trained - 12th Dec 17
Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts to Continue? - 12th Dec 17
Masters of Economic and Political Illusion – in Taxes, Debt, Government, and Markets - 12th Dec 17
Approved Used Land Rover Main Dealer Real Customer Buying Guide - Hunters, Chester - 12th Dec 17
Gold Price 100% Bullish Signal - 12th Dec 17
Epic Stock Market & Fixed Income Bubble Will Not End Well - 12th Dec 17
Bitcoin can be stolen. Although Can’t be hacked - 11th Dec 17
Have Stocks Reached A Permanently Rigged Plateau? - 11th Dec 17
Trying To Beat The System Is A Fatally Flawed Investment Strategy - 11th Dec 17
Is This The Beginning Of The Next Silver Rush? - 11th Dec 17
The Dow Gold Ratio - 11th Dec 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Traders Workshop

The Magnitude Of The Coming Pension Storm Will Come To Light In 2018

Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement Sep 30, 2017 - 05:07 PM GMT

By: John_Mauldin

Personal_Finance

BY PATRICK WATSON : Part of my job is helping John Mauldin with the research for his Thoughts from the Frontline letters. Regular readers know John isn’t a doom-and-gloom guru. He’s optimistic on most of our big challenges.

Except for a few things—like the brewing state and local pension crisis.

The more John and I dig into it, the worse it looks. We have both spent many hours trying to find any good news or a silver lining, without success.


All over the US, states, cities, school districts, and other governmental entities have promised their workers generous retirement benefits, but haven’t set aside enough cash to pay what they will owe.

At some point, perhaps soon, either they will have to cut benefits to retirees or stick taxpayers with a huge bill... or both.

What else could go wrong? Plenty.

Healthcare Goes on the Books

Local governments often give retired police officers, firefighters, teachers, and other workers a pension plus healthcare benefits.

Healthcare is expensive even in the best circumstances. Imagine your health insurer had promised to cover your medical expenses but hadn’t set aside any cash to pay for it.

Remarkably, that’s exactly what has happened.

Governments currently disclose their retiree healthcare liabilities only in footnotes to their financial statements. Many have saved little to no money to cover those future expenses.

That’s about to change.

Starting in 2018, the Governmental Accounting Standards Board—the source of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) for state and local governments—will force officials to record healthcare liabilities on their balance sheets. Pew Charitable Trusts estimates the national shortfall will add up to $645 billion.

That’s on top of the estimated $1.1 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities they already had. In other words, this giant problem that no one knows how to solve is about to get 59% worse!

Or, more accurately, it’s going to look 59% worse. The healthcare shortfall isn’t new. What’s new is that local governments have to stop obscuring it.

What else could go wrong? Plenty.

The Opioid Plague

Now, let’s add another crisis on top of the already-terrible one that just got 59% worse.

You’ve probably heard about the opioid drug abuse that is killing thousands of Americans. Putting numbers on it is tricky—often, multiple factors contribute to the same death.

The Centers for Disease Control estimates opioids played a role in more than 33,000 deaths in 2015. No one thinks the numbers have improved since then.

The deaths aren’t evenly distributed. This Reuters graphic shows the heaviest concentrations in the Midwest, New England, and New Mexico.

Source: Reuters

It’s probably no coincidence that some of these states have suffered above-average economic pain in the last decade or two.

The deaths from overdose and the even larger number of near-deaths are putting a huge strain on local government finances in those regions.

A recent Reuters investigation found costs soaring for everything from ambulances to autopsies. Cities and counties are racking up huge bills for courts, prosecutors and public defenders, jails, and treatment programs.

The small towns and counties dealing with this opioid plague are often the same ones whose pension plans and healthcare expenses are already underfunded.

That’s bad news for current retirees, workers who hope to retire, and taxpayers who will ultimately foot the bill. In a word, everyone.

But that’s not all.

Costly Storms

Last weekend at the Texas Tribune Festival here in Austin, I heard Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo discuss his Hurricane Harvey experience. As more areas flooded, he kept the entire department on duty for six straight days, 24 hours a day.

Acevedo said he knew this wasn’t in the budget, but the alternatives were worse. Lives were at stake, and the city needed its protectors more than ever.

The hurricane is over, but the Harvey expenses are just starting. Houston may have to spend $250 million on the disposal of flood debris… and the city is only part of the affected area.

Houston’s pension plans were already on shaky ground, so this won’t help. Many local governments in Florida, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands may see the same, thanks to Irma and Maria.

So what does it mean to you?

For one, we should plan for substantially higher state and local taxes in the future.

And if you’re a public worker or retiree, you better think about how you will make ends meet if your benefits get slashed.

I’m going to do my part by working even harder to find income-generating investments for my subscribers, to help recover some of what the pension crisis may cost them.

This is, as John Mauldin says, a problem we can’t just muddle through. All we can do is prepare for it—and now is the time to start.

Free Report: The New Asset Class Helping Investors Earn 7% Yields in a 2.5% World

While the Fed may be raising interest rates, the reality is we still live in a low-yield world. This report will show you how to start earning market-beating yields in as little as 30 days... and simultaneously reduce your portfolio’s risk exposure.

Claim your free copy here.

John Mauldin Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife