Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - Jeff_Berwick
2.Fragile Stock Market Bull in a China Shop -James_Quinn
3.Sheffield Leafy Suburbs Tree Felling's Triggering House Prices CRASH! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Government Finances and Gold - Cautionary Tale told in Four Charts - Michael_J_Kosares
6.Gold Stocks Winter Rally - Zeal_LLC
7.The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? - Plunger
8.Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - MarketsToday
9.Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom - Stewart_Dougherty
10.Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - Jim_Willie_CB
Last 7 days
The Precious Metals Bears' Fear of Fridays - 23rd Nov 17
UK Economic Austerity, Bloodletting and Incompetence - 23rd Nov 17
Stocks Are At The End Of The Line – Prepare Yourself Now! - 23rd Nov 17
Some Traders Hit. Some Traders Miss. Here's How to be Part of the 1st Group - 22nd Nov 17
Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Global Gold Demand to Remain Robust - 22nd Nov 17
Relationship between Crude Oil Price and Oil Stocks - 22nd Nov 17
Harry Dent’s Gold Prediction Invalidated - 22nd Nov 17
Gold Sector is On a Long-term Buy Signal - 21st Nov 17
Saudi Arabia and Israeli Alliance Targets Iran - 21st Nov 17
What History Says for Gold Stocks in 2018-2019 - 21st Nov 17
US Bond Market Operation Twist by Another Name and Method? - 21st Nov 17
Learning from Money Supply of the 1980s: The Power and Irony of “MDuh” - 20th Nov 17
Trump’s Asia Strategy, Goals and Realities - 20th Nov 17
Crude Oil – General Market Link - 20th Nov 17
Bitcoin Price Blasts Through $8,000… In Zimbabwe Tops $13,500 As Mugabe Regime Crumbles - 20th Nov 17
Stock Market More Correction Ahead? - 19th Nov 17
Universal Credits Christmas Scrooge Nightmare for Weekly Pay Recipients - 18th Nov 17
Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom - 18th Nov 17
Facebook Traders: Tech Giant + Technical Analysis = Thumbs Up - 18th Nov 17
Games Betting System For NCAA Basketball Sports Betting - Know Your Betting Limits - 18th Nov 17
Universal Credit Doomsday for Tax Credits Cash ISA Savers, Here's What to Do - 18th Nov 17
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Q3 2017 - 17th Nov 17
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing - 17th Nov 17
Mystery of Inflation and Gold - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Ready To Pull The Rug Out From Under You! - 17th Nov 17
Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 - 17th Nov 17
Play Free Online Games and Save Money Free Virtual Online Games - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Crash Omens & Predictions: Another Day Another Lie - 16th Nov 17
Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe - 16th Nov 17
Announcing Free Trader's Workshop: Battle-Tested Tools to Boost Your Trading Confidence - 16th Nov 17
Instructions to Stop a Dispossession Home Sale and How to Purchase Astutely at Abandonment Home - 16th Nov 17
Trump’s Asia Tour: From Old Conflicts to New Prospects - 16th Nov 17
Bonds And Stocks Will Crash Together In The Next Crisis (Meanwhile, Bond Yields Are Going Up) - 16th Nov 17
A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near - 16th Nov 17
Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - 16th Nov 17
Gold’s Long-term Analogies - 16th Nov 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Traders Workshop

History Says Global Debt Levels Will Lead to Another Crisis

Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017 Oct 18, 2017 - 02:44 PM GMT

By: GoldSilver

Interest-Rates

Jeff Clark : It may feel like we’ll escape a debt crisis since, well, the world hasn’t ended in spite of runaway debt levels. Some of us hard money people feel like we’re taking crazy pills; how the heck can debt be so out of control, so completely unpayable, and yet the financial system keeps chugging along as if nothing’s wrong?

Well, history has a message for us: the current calm won’t last forever, because there is a direct link between government debt levels and the number of financial crises that occur. And since global debt levels are high—the second highest level in the past 150 years—it’s not exactly a stretch to conclude that another financial crisis is coming.


Analysts at Deutsche Bank recently released an extensive study that demonstrates the link between debt and crisis. One chart in particular screamed for attention.

They measured G-7 government debt levels, as a percent of GDP, and charted that figure against the number of crisis those countries have experienced. Here are the primary events they classified as a crisis or shock:

  • 15% fall in stocks
  • 10% decline in the country’s currency exchange rate
  • 10% fall in bonds
  • A sovereign default
  • 10% inflation rate

They logged every time a nation encountered any of these events within a one-year period, and compared that to government debt levels. It’s not hard to spot the correlation.

 

Since 1864, the higher government debt levels, the greater the number of countries hit by a financial crisis or shock. Even in the 1970s when debt was “low,” it rose steadily, indicating politicians were relying on debt to help solve their economic problems. And that reliance led to greater crises.

You can see that current G-7 government debt levels are at the second highest reading in at least 153 years. Are these countries really going to buck the historical trend and avoid any further financial crises or shocks? It would be borderline irresponsible to think so (hello, gold haters).

So how did we get into this debt spiral?

The Root Cause of Current Debt Levels

The simplest explanation is that governments spend more than they bring in. And since each year's deficit is added to the debt, the total keeps going up and up. It’s so high now that it’s mathematically impossible to repay (at least in current dollars).

How is it that central bankers and politicians can continue this free-for-all spending? You can tie it to one thing…

The world made a final break from a gold standard in 1971, when President Nixon ended gold convertibility. Up to that point there was some kind of gold (or silver) monetary regime for literally centuries (the primary exception to a lid on spending was during periods of war as the chart shows).

Now the entire world is on a fiat currency system for the first time in recorded history. And a fiat currency system always leads to ever increasing debt and money printing, because politicians and central bankers have no built-in controls to prevent them from doing so. Need more currency? Just spend it anyway or print it.

I have a question for those who mock the gold standard, or believe the fiat system is superior: why have all of the following events occurred since the world severed its last monetary tie to gold in 1971?

  • UK property and secondary banking crisis, 1973-1975
  • US Recession and oil crisis, 1973-1975
  • US Recession, 1980
  • US Recession, 1981-1982
  • Numerous Emerging Market defaults, mid-1980s
  • US Savings and Loan mass failures, late 1980s/early 1990s
  • Nordic banking and economic crises, late 1980s
  • US Recession 1990-1991
  • Japanese asset price bubble bursting, 1992
  • Mexican Peso crisis, 1994
  • Asian financial crisis, 1997
  • Long-Term Capital Management crisis, 1998
  • Dot.com crash, 2000
  • US Recession, 2001
  • Housing market crash, 2007
  • Stock market crash, 2008
  • Great Recession, 2008-2009
  • Euro Sovereign crisis, 2010-2012

That’s 18 major financial crises in 46 years. An average of one every two-and-a-half years.

I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume we’ll escape another crisis. Government debt is simply too high, and history shows this makes crises much more likely, maybe even inevitable.

This is a primary reason Mike and I continue to buy gold regularly. In fact, while researching this article, I ordered another one of these.

I hope your portfolio is ready for the next financial shock that history says is on its way.

Source: https://goldsilver.com/blog/history-says-global-debt-levels-will-lead-to-another-crisis/

https://goldsilver.com

© 2017 Copyright  GoldSilver - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife