Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Market Election Year Cycles – What to Expect? - 4th Jun 20
Why Solar Stocks Are Rallying Against All Odds - 4th Jun 20
East Asia Will Be a Post-Pandemic Success - 4th Jun 20
Comparing Bitcoin to Other Market Sectors – Risk vs. Value - 4th Jun 20
Covid, Debt and Precious Metals - 3rd Jun 20
Gold-Silver Ratio And Correlation - 3rd Jun 20
The Corona Riots Begin, US Covid-19 Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 3rd Jun 20 -
Stock Market Short-term Top? - 3rd Jun 20
Deflation: Why the "Japanification" of the U.S. Looms Large - 3rd Jun 20
US Stock Market Sets Up Technical Patterns – Pay Attention - 3rd Jun 20
UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 2nd Jun 20
US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming - 2nd Jun 20
Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste - 2nd Jun 20
Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse - 2nd Jun 20
The importance of effective website design in a business marketing strategy - 2nd Jun 20
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

History Says Global Debt Levels Will Lead to Another Crisis

Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017 Oct 18, 2017 - 02:44 PM GMT

By: GoldSilver

Interest-Rates

Jeff Clark : It may feel like we’ll escape a debt crisis since, well, the world hasn’t ended in spite of runaway debt levels. Some of us hard money people feel like we’re taking crazy pills; how the heck can debt be so out of control, so completely unpayable, and yet the financial system keeps chugging along as if nothing’s wrong?

Well, history has a message for us: the current calm won’t last forever, because there is a direct link between government debt levels and the number of financial crises that occur. And since global debt levels are high—the second highest level in the past 150 years—it’s not exactly a stretch to conclude that another financial crisis is coming.


Analysts at Deutsche Bank recently released an extensive study that demonstrates the link between debt and crisis. One chart in particular screamed for attention.

They measured G-7 government debt levels, as a percent of GDP, and charted that figure against the number of crisis those countries have experienced. Here are the primary events they classified as a crisis or shock:

  • 15% fall in stocks
  • 10% decline in the country’s currency exchange rate
  • 10% fall in bonds
  • A sovereign default
  • 10% inflation rate

They logged every time a nation encountered any of these events within a one-year period, and compared that to government debt levels. It’s not hard to spot the correlation.

 

Since 1864, the higher government debt levels, the greater the number of countries hit by a financial crisis or shock. Even in the 1970s when debt was “low,” it rose steadily, indicating politicians were relying on debt to help solve their economic problems. And that reliance led to greater crises.

You can see that current G-7 government debt levels are at the second highest reading in at least 153 years. Are these countries really going to buck the historical trend and avoid any further financial crises or shocks? It would be borderline irresponsible to think so (hello, gold haters).

So how did we get into this debt spiral?

The Root Cause of Current Debt Levels

The simplest explanation is that governments spend more than they bring in. And since each year's deficit is added to the debt, the total keeps going up and up. It’s so high now that it’s mathematically impossible to repay (at least in current dollars).

How is it that central bankers and politicians can continue this free-for-all spending? You can tie it to one thing…

The world made a final break from a gold standard in 1971, when President Nixon ended gold convertibility. Up to that point there was some kind of gold (or silver) monetary regime for literally centuries (the primary exception to a lid on spending was during periods of war as the chart shows).

Now the entire world is on a fiat currency system for the first time in recorded history. And a fiat currency system always leads to ever increasing debt and money printing, because politicians and central bankers have no built-in controls to prevent them from doing so. Need more currency? Just spend it anyway or print it.

I have a question for those who mock the gold standard, or believe the fiat system is superior: why have all of the following events occurred since the world severed its last monetary tie to gold in 1971?

  • UK property and secondary banking crisis, 1973-1975
  • US Recession and oil crisis, 1973-1975
  • US Recession, 1980
  • US Recession, 1981-1982
  • Numerous Emerging Market defaults, mid-1980s
  • US Savings and Loan mass failures, late 1980s/early 1990s
  • Nordic banking and economic crises, late 1980s
  • US Recession 1990-1991
  • Japanese asset price bubble bursting, 1992
  • Mexican Peso crisis, 1994
  • Asian financial crisis, 1997
  • Long-Term Capital Management crisis, 1998
  • Dot.com crash, 2000
  • US Recession, 2001
  • Housing market crash, 2007
  • Stock market crash, 2008
  • Great Recession, 2008-2009
  • Euro Sovereign crisis, 2010-2012

That’s 18 major financial crises in 46 years. An average of one every two-and-a-half years.

I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume we’ll escape another crisis. Government debt is simply too high, and history shows this makes crises much more likely, maybe even inevitable.

This is a primary reason Mike and I continue to buy gold regularly. In fact, while researching this article, I ordered another one of these.

I hope your portfolio is ready for the next financial shock that history says is on its way.

Source: https://goldsilver.com/blog/history-says-global-debt-levels-will-lead-to-another-crisis/

https://goldsilver.com

© 2017 Copyright  GoldSilver - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules