Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Dollargeddon - Gold Price to Soar Above $6,000 - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Is Gold Price On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself - Chris_Vermeulen
3.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - P_Radomski_CFA
5.Why The Uranium Price Must Go Up - Richard_Mills
6.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” - GoldCore
8.More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
9.It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - Steve_H_Hanke
10.Fiat Currency Inflation, And Collapse Insurance - Raymond_Matison
Last 7 days
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 20th Sep 18
The Stealth Reason Why the Stock Market Keeps On Rising - 20th Sep 18
Sheffield School Applications Crisis Eased by New Secondary Schools Places - 20th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - 19th Sep 18
US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? - 19th Sep 18
Prepare for the Stock Market’s Volatility to Increase - 19th Sep 18
The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - 19th Sep 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 'Approved Used' Bad Paint Job - Inchcape Chester - 19th Sep 18
Are Technology and FANG Stocks Bottoming? - 18th Sep 18
Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections - 18th Sep 18
Lehman Brothers Financial Collapse - Ten Years Later - 18th Sep 18
Financial Crisis Markets Reality Check Now in Progress - 18th Sep 18
Gold’s Ultimate Confirmation - 18th Sep 18
Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices  - 18th Sep 18
Sheffield Best Secondary Schools Rankings and Trend Trajectory for Applications 2018 - 18th Sep 18
Gold / US Dollar Inverse Correlation - 17th Sep 18
The Apple Story - Trump Tariffs Penalize US Multinationals - 17th Sep 18
Wall Street Created Financial Crash Catastrophe Ten Years Later - 17th Sep 18
Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Stock Market - 17th Sep 18
Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - 17th Sep 18
Financial Markets Macro/Micro View: Waves and Cycles - 17th Sep 18
Stock Market Bulls Prevail – for Now! - 17th Sep 18
GBPUSD Set to Explode Higher - 17th Sep 18
The China Threat - Global Crisis Hot Spots & Pressure Points - 17th Sep 18 - Jim_Willie_CB
Silver's Relationship with Gold Reaching Historical Extremes - 16th Sep 18
Emerging Markets to Follow and Those to Avoid - 16th Sep 18
Investing - Look at the Facts to Find the Truth - 16th Sep 18
Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - 15th Sep 18
Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - 15th Sep 18
Trading The Global Future - Bad Consequences - 15th Sep 18
Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - 15th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - 14th Sep 18
Growing Number of Small Businesses Opening – and Closing – In the UK - 14th Sep 18
Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video - 14th Sep 18
Esports Is Exploding—Here’s 3 Best Stocks to Profit From - 13th Sep 18
The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War - 13th Sep 18
How Trump Tariffs Could Double America’s Trade Losses - 13th Sep 18
Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - 13th Sep 18
Trading Cryptocurrencies: To Win, You Must Know Where You're Wrong - 13th Sep 18
Gold, Silver, and USD Index - Three Important “Nothings” - 13th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term SELL Signal - 13th Sep 18
Does Gambling Regulation Work - A Case Study - 13th Sep 18
The Ritual Burial of the US Constitution - 12th Sep 18
Stock Market Final Probe Higher ... Then the PANIC! - 12th Sep 18
Gold Nuggets And Silver Bullets - 12th Sep 18
Bitcoin Trading - SEC Strikes Again - 12th Sep 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

Relief Rally in Gold Mining Stocks

Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017 Dec 16, 2017 - 05:43 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

In recent days the gold stocks (GDX, GDXJ) traded within 1% of our downside targets of GDX $21.00 and GDXJ $29.50. Last week we wrote: “the miners are getting oversold and a bounce could begin from those levels.” GDXJ troughed first last week at $29.84 while GDX printed a low of $21.27 on Monday. From their September peaks down to those lows, GDX and GDXJ had declined nearly 17% and 21% respectively. They are oversold, nearly touched good support and now the rate hike is behind them. We expect a rally in the sector well into January.


With a rebound underway we should turn our attention to potential upside targets. GDX closed the week at $21.99. It has resistance at $23.00 including its 200-day moving average at $22.83. GDXJ closed at $31.46. It has resistance at $33.00. Its 200-day moving average is at $33.49. In case we are being too conservative, our optimistic upside targets would be GDX $23.50 and GDXJ $33.50.

While mid to late December has been an excellent buy point over each of the past four years, we do not expect the gold stocks (this time) to match those fabulous returns. The gold stocks are not currently as oversold as they were in each of the past four years. The bullish percentage index (BPI), a breadth indicator is currently at 21.4%. Aside from the December 2015 low (which came in January 2016 at a BPI of 12%), the BPI at previous lows did not exceed 10%. Furthermore, a look at the rolling rate of change for 100 days and GDX’s distance from its 100-day exponential moving average shows that GDX currently is nowhere close to as oversold as those four previous points.

Another reason we should not expect a sizeable rebound is metals prices do not have much room to rally before running into strong resistance. Gold closed the week at $1257. It faces long-term moving average resistance at $1266-$1268 and very strong resistance above $1280. Silver meanwhile could find strong resistance at $16.60 to $16.75. Its 200-day moving average is at $17.01 and declining. Silver closed the week at $16.06.

Precious metals and gold stocks especially have begun a rebound that should last at least three or four more weeks. Due to a lack of an extreme “long-term” oversold condition (like in each of the past four December’s) and the presence of nearby overhead resistance, we would not expect sizeable gains. Another reason is strong fundamentals for precious metals (namely declining real interest rates) are not yet in place. With all that being said, some values are starting to emerge in the juniors and the sentiment in the sector has become encouraging from a contrarian standpoint. Conditions are improving but it remains early to be outright bullish on the sector. In the meantime, the key for traders and investors is to find the oversold companies with strong fundamentals with value and catalysts that will drive buying.

To follow our guidance and learn our favorite juniors for 2018, consider learning more about our premium service.

Good Luck!

Email: Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
Service Link: http://thedailygold.com/premium

Bio: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT  is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2014 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.  Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, and his editorials are regularly published in 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules