Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Five Charts That Show We Are on the Brink of an Unthinkable Financial Crisis- John_Mauldin
2.Bitcoin Parabolic Mania - Zeal_LLC
3.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – 2 - Raul_I_Meijer
4.Best Time / Month of Year to BUY a USED Car is DECEMBER, UK Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Labour Sheffield City Council Election Panic Could Prompt Suspension of Tree Felling's Private Security - N_Walayat
6.War on Gold Intensifies: It Betrays the Elitists’ Panic and Augurs Their Coming Defeat Part2 - Stewart_Dougherty
7.How High Will Gold Go? - Harry_Dent
8.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – Forks and Mad Max - Raul_I_Meijer
9.UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall - GoldCore
10.New EU Rules For Cross-Border Cash, Gold Bullion Movements - GoldCore
Last 7 days
Stock Index Trend Trade Setups for the SP500 & NASDAQ - 22nd Jan 18
Stock Market Deceleration / Distribution - 22nd Jan 18
US Markets vs Govt Shutdown: Stock Markets at all time highs - 22nd Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - 1 Month Driving Test Review - 22nd Jan 18
Why should you use high-quality YouTube to mp3 converter? - 22nd Jan 18
Silver As Strategic Metal: Why Its Price Will Soar - 21st Jan 18
Stocks, Gold and Interest Rates Three Amigos Ride On - 21st Jan 18
Why Sometimes, "Beating the S&P 500" Isn't Good Enough - 21st Jan 18
Bunnies and Geckos of Sheffield Street Tree Fellings Protests Explained - 21st Jan 18
Jim Rickards: Next Financial Panic Will Be the Biggest of All, with Only One Place to Turn… - 20th Jan 18
Macro Trend Changes for Gold in 2018 and Beyond - Empire Club of Canada - 20th Jan 18
Top 5 Trader Information Sources for Timely, Successful Investing - 20th Jan 18
Bond Market Bear Creating Gold Bull Market - 19th Jan 18
Gold Stocks GDX $25 Breakout on Earnings - 19th Jan 18
SPX is Higher But No Breakout - 19th Jan 18
Game Changer for Bitcoin - 19th Jan 18
Upside Risk for Gold in 2018 - 19th Jan 18
Money Minute - A 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy - 19th Jan 18
Discovery Sport Real MPG Fuel Economy Vs Land Rover 53.3 MPG Sales Pitch - 19th Jan 18
For Americans Buying Gold and Silver: Still a Big U.S. Pricing Advantage - 19th Jan 18
5 Maps And Charts That Predict Geopolitical Trends In 2018 - 19th Jan 18
North Korean Quagmire: Part 2. Bombing, Nuclear Threats, and Resolution - 19th Jan 18
Complete Guide On Forex Trading Market - 19th Jan 18
Bitcoin Crash Sees Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars - 18th Jan 18
The Interest Rates Are What Matter In This Market - 18th Jan 18
Crude Oil Sweat, Blood and Tears - 18th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - Week 3 HSE Black Test Review - 18th Jan 18
The North Korea Quagmire: Part 1, A Contest of Colonialism and Communism - 18th Jan 18
Understand Currency Trade and Make Plenty of Money - 18th Jan 18
Bitcoin Price Crash Below $10,000. What's Next? We have answers… - 18th Jan 18
How to Trade Gold During Second Half of January, Daily Cycle Prediction - 18th Jan 18
More U.S. States Are Knocking Down Gold & Silver Barriers - 18th Jan 18
5 Economic Predictions for 2018 - 18th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - What You Need to Know Before Buying - Owning Week 2 - 17th Jan 18
Bitcoin and Stock Prices, Both Symptoms of Speculative Extremes! - 17th Jan 18
So That’s What Stock Market Volatility Looks Like - 17th Jan 18
Tips On Choosing the Right Forex Dealer - 17th Jan 18
Crude Oil is Starting 2018 Strong but there's Undeniable Risk to the Downside - 16th Jan 18
SPX, NDX, INDU and RUT Stock Indices all at Resistance Levels - 16th Jan 18
Silver Prices To Surge – JP Morgan Has Acquired A “Massive Quantity of Physical Silver” - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Bankruptcy and the PFI Sector Spiraling Costs Crisis, Amey, G4S, Balfour Beatty, Serco.... - 16th Jan 18
Artificial Intelligence - Extermination of Humanity - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Goes Bust, as Government Refuses to Bailout PFI Contractors Debt and Pensions Liabilities - 15th Jan 18
What Really Happens in Iran?  - 15th Jan 18
Stock Market Near an Intermediate Top? - 15th Jan 18
The Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018 - 15th Jan 18
London Property Market Crash Looms As Prices Drop To 2 1/2 Year Low - 15th Jan 18
Some Fascinating Stock Market Fibonacci Relationships... - 15th Jan 18
How to Know If This Stock Market Rally Will Continue for Two More Months? - 14th Jan 18
Everything SMIGGLE from Pencil Cases to Water Bottles, Pens and Springs! - 14th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Very Bad MPG Fuel Economy! Real Owner's Review - 14th Jan 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

6 Critical Money Making Rules

The Way to the New Cold War

Politics / New Cold War Jan 08, 2018 - 10:46 AM GMT

By: Dan_Steinbock

Politics Despite continued nuclear threats, all US postwar presidents have failed to reset relations with Russia. Why?

The “New Cold War” between the US and Russia began a decade ago. The elevated tensions in the Korean Peninsula are only a part of the collateral damage around the world.

But what led to the new friction? The simple response is the Wolfowitz Doctrine.


The Wolfowitz Doctrine

In late 1989, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and US President George H. W. Bush declared the Cold War. In February 1990, then-Secretary of State James Baker suggested that in exchange for cooperation on Germany US could make “iron-clad guarantees “that NATO would not expand “one inch eastward.”

As Gorbachev acceded to Germany’s Western alignment on the condition that the US would limit NATO’s expansion, Baker’s own top officials at the Pentagon began to push Eastern Europe in the US orbit.

That’s how the Wolfowitz Doctrine – named by Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Paul Wolfowitz, later the prophet of George W. Bush's neoconservatives - was developed amid the end of the Cold War.

The Doctrine deemed the US as the world’s only remaining superpower and proclaimed its main objective to be retaining that status. Its first objective was “to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union.”

Bush-Clinton “shock therapy” and Russia’s Great Depression

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, bilateral ties remained warm between the George H. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations and President Boris Yeltsin until the neoliberal “shock therapy” – the huge privatization and liberalization project designed by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the US Treasury – led to a nightmare Depression in Russia.

As Russia struggled for survival, three former Soviet satellites - Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic - were invited to join the NATO. By the mid-90s, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and the Baltic states were ushered into NATO; against the angry but ultimately futile protests by presidents Yeltsin and Gorbachev.

By then, the 1990s destabilization had paved way to the rise of President Vladimir Putin who was able to re-stabilize the economy between 2000 and 2008, when Russia enjoyed a major boost from rising commodity prices..

George W. Bush’s NATO enlargement and nuclear primacy policy

In 2001, President George W. Bush wanted to reset US Russia relations. But if there was a historic opportunity, it was soon lost. After the White House was swept by the 9/11 attacks and neoconservatives’ unilateral foreign policy, it began incursions into Afghanistan and invaded Iraq.

Meanwhile, NATO began looking even further eastward to Ukraine and Georgia, while Moscow’s protests turned angrier.

Most Russians saw the Rose Revolution in Georgia 2003, and US effort to build an anti-ballistic missile defense installation in Poland with a radar station in the Czech Republic, as intrusions into its sphere of interest, along with US efforts to gain access to Central Asian oil and natural gas.

In June 2002, the Bush administration withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM), which had been in force for 30 years. The construction of the US missile defense system was feared to enable the US to attack with a nuclear first strike.

The withdrawal was a "fatal blow" to the 1970 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and led to a world without effective legal constraints on nuclear proliferation. One of its consequences is the ongoing nuclear debacle in the Korean Peninsula.

From Obama sanctions to Trump’s reversals

Like Clinton and Bush, President Obama wanted to reset US-Russia relations. By March 2010 both countries agreed to reduce their nuclear arsenals.

Yet, the reset was not supported by his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and US ambassador to Russia John Beyrle. Subsequently, rising tensions in Crimea were seized to bury the effort.

What followed was a series of Obama sanctions against Russia in 2014 and 2016, with the support of the European Union (EU).

In the 2016 campaign trail, Trump lauded President Putin as a strong leader, arguing in favor of friendlier relations. Meanwhile, FBI began investigating alleged connections between Trump's former and current campaign managers and advisers.

In January 2017, Trump and President Putin began phone conferences as the White House still mulled lifting economic sanctions to reset relations with Russia. By May, former FBI chief and the Bush neoconservatives’ loyalist Robert Mueller was appointed to investigate alleged Russian interference in the 2016 US elections.

In the fall, Trump approved still new sanctions on Russia crushing hope for the reset in US-Russian relations. By the year-end, his administration’s new security strategy named China and Russia as competitive rivals.

The primacy of Wolfowitz Doctrine

It was the Wolfowitz Doctrine that undermined the efforts of four post-Cold War presidents to reset relations with Russia.

In each case, the US “military-industrial complex”- about which President Eisenhower, a five-star general, had warned already in 1961 – has played a critical but low-profile role behind the scenes.

President Clinton did not oppose the military interests, as long as they supported US economic interests. Bush’s inner circle was identical with Pentagon’s ultimate insiders and neoconservative hawks. Obama talked against the military and security complex but, eventually, became its loyal cheerleader. Trump fought efforts to kill the reset of Russia relations – until the appointment of the special counsel.

The Wolfowitz doctrine has prevailed – against all postwar US presidents.

Dr Steinbock is the founder of the Difference Group and has served as the research director at the India, China, and America Institute (USA) and a visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more information, see http://www.differencegroup.net/

© 2018 Copyright Dan Steinbock - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules