Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Boris Johnson Hits Coronavirus Panic Button Again, UK Accelertoing Covid-19 Second Wave - 25th Sep 20
Precious Metals Trading Range Doing It’s Job to Confound Bulls and Bears Alike - 25th Sep 20
Gold and Silver Are Still Locked and Loaded… Don't be Out of Ammo - 25th Sep 20
Throwing the golden baby out with the covid bath water - Gold Wins - 25th Sep 20
A Look at the Perilous Psychology of Financial Market Bubbles - 25th Sep 20
Corona Strikes Back In Europe. Will It Boost Gold? - 25th Sep 20
How to Boost the Value of Your Home - 25th Sep 20
Key Time For Stock Markets: Bears Step Up or V-Shaped Bounce - 24th Sep 20
Five ways to recover the day after a good workout - 24th Sep 20
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels - 23rd Sep 20
Beware of These Faulty “Inflation Protected” Investments - 23rd Sep 20
What’s Behind Dollar USDX Breakout? - 23rd Sep 20
Still More Room To Stock Market Downside In The Coming Weeks - 23rd Sep 20
Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher - 23rd Sep 20
Key Gold Ratios to Other Markets - 23rd Sep 20
Watch Before Upgrading / Buying RTX 3000, RDNA2 - CPU vs GPU Bottlenecks - 23rd Sep 20
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Will Chinese Dragon Boost or Devour Gold?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Jan 11, 2018 - 04:42 PM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

China may slow down its U.S. debt buying. Will gold rally or plunge, then?

Dragons Love Hoarding Gold and Not Only

Dragons love gold. In Greek mythology, dragons were set by the gods to guard golden treasures. It makes perfect sense, since it would be rather difficult to find better guards. Everybody who watched The Hobbit series knows that this is true – the powerful Smaug hoarded a lot and was really obsessed with his shiny treasure.


The Chinese dragon is also believed to hoard a lot of gold. With more than 1,800 tons of gold officially owned, China has the fifth largest gold reserves in the world (and many analysts speculate that the country’s true gold reserves might be much higher than the official number). The impact of Chinese holdings on gold prices is rather questionable, but the importance of China’s economy for the global markets is beyond doubts. Three years ago, the stock market crisis in Shanghai caused the global stock market sell-off in August. 2016 started with a Chinese bang, when the global stock markets – worried about an economic slowdown in China – plunged.

Will China Dump U.S. Treasuries?

Now, concerns arose that China could stop or slow U.S. Treasuries buying. Is there anything to worry about? Yes. And no. Let’s see. China is one of the largest official holders of U.S. assets and world’s biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. As one can notice in the chart below, China’s foreign reserves excluding gold exceed $3 trillion.

Chart 1: China’s foreign reserves excluding gold from 1980 to 2017.


According to Bloomberg, “senior government officials in Beijing reviewing the nation’s foreign-exchange holdings have recommended slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasuries”. The report sent U.S. Treasury yields higher. As the next chart shows, the yields had already been rising due to less intense buying from central banks and the expectations of widening fiscal deficits. On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped even further, reaching a 10-month high.

Chart 2: Price of gold (yellow line, left axis, London P.M. Fix, in $) and yields on 10-year Treasuries (red line, right axis, in %) over the last twelve months.


Implications for Gold

What does it all mean for the gold market? Well, rising bond yields should be negative for the yellow metal, which does not bear any interest and becomes less attractive when rates are climbing. Bill Gross claims that a bear market in bonds has begun. As the U.S. Treasuries are also considered a safe-haven, such a change could sink gold prices as well.

However, we cannot end the analysis here. Most analysts do so, as they focus on simple correlations. People are not aware that relationships may change depending on the broad economic context. We are. Look at the chart above. In December, the correlation between 10-year Treasury yields and gold prices turned positive.

Why? You see, what really matters is not the change in yields, but the reason behind it. When bond yields rise because investors expect faster economic growth, it is clearly bad for gold. But when bond yields jump as traders are afraid of inflation or don’t want to hold the U.S. dollar, it doesn’t have to be negative for the yellow metal. Actually, the opposite might be true.

Conclusions

On Wednesday, concerns emerged that China could stop or slow their buying of U.S. Treasuries. We believe the fears were slightly exaggerated, as China has to manage its renminbi exchange rate, so large changes to the composition of the foreign exchange reserves are not likely (we wrote about China and the gold market in the October edition of the Market Overview). Nevertheless, bond yields have been rising recently, which should make gold struggle. This hasn’t happened yet and the correlation between bullion and Treasury yields broke down thanks to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which supported gold prices.

However, if rates continue to rise, the price of gold should eventually drop, especially when the greenback rebounds. Please be aware of that. We have analyzed the drivers of the gold market thoroughly and real interest rates are among the most important factors. The positive correlation may last a while, but the current situation is unlikely to last in the long term. Either rates drop and gold continues to drop, or yields continue its upward move and the yellow metal declines. Given the current economic environment (solid economic growth, monetary policy tightening), the second scenario is more likely to us. You have been warned. Good luck!

Thank you.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the gold ETFs and their impact on gold price, we invite you to read the April Market Overview report. If you're interested in the detailed price analysis and price projections with targets, we invite you to sign up for our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts . If you're not ready to subscribe at this time, we invite you to sign up for our gold newsletter and stay up-to-date with our latest free articles. It's free and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules