Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Ray Dalio: This Debt Cycle Will End Soon - John_Mauldin
2.Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices 2019 No Deal BrExit 30% Crash Warning! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale - Andrew_Butter
5.Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - Troy_Bombardia
6.More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - Troy_Bombardia
7.US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - Troy_Bombardia
8.TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - James_Quinn
9.How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - Nadeem_Walayat
10.This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - Patrick_Watson
Last 7 days
Natural Gas Price Setup for a Big Move Lower - 13th Dec 18
How to Get 20% Off Morrisons Weekly Supermarket Shopping - 13th Dec 18
Gold Price Analysis: Closer To A Significant Monetary Event - 13th Dec 18
Where is the Stock Market Santa Claus Rally? - 12th Dec 18
Politics and Economics in Times of Crisis - 12th Dec 18
Owning Precious Metals in an IRA - 12th Dec 18
Ways to Improve the Value of Your Home - 12th Dec 18
Theresa May No Confidence Vote, Next Tory Leader Betting Market Analysis and Forecasts - 12th Dec 18
Gold & Global Financial Crisis Redux - 12th Dec 18
Wow Your Neighbours With the Best Christmas Projector Lights for Holidays 2018! - 12th Dec 18
Stock Market Topping Formation as Risks Rise Around the World - 11th Dec 18
The Amazing Story of Gold to Gold Stocks Ratios - 11th Dec 18
Stock Market Medium term Bullish, But Long Term Risk:Reward is Bearish - 11th Dec 18
Is a Deleveraging Event about to Unfold in the Stock Market? - 11th Dec 18
Making Money through Property Investment - 11th Dec 18
Brexit: What Will it Mean for Exchange Rates? - 11th Dec 18
United States Facing Climate Change Severe Water Stress - 10th Dec 18
Waiting for Gold Price to Erupt - 10th Dec 18
Stock Market Key Support Being Re-Tested - 10th Dec 18
May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis - 10th Dec 18
Listen to What Gold is Telling You - 10th Dec 18
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing - 10th Dec 18
Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals - 9th Dec 18
Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? - 9th Dec 18
Rising US Home Prices and Falling Sales - 8th Dec 18
Choosing Who the Autonomous Car Should Kill - 8th Dec 18
Stocks Selloff Boosting Gold - 8th Dec 18
Will Weak US Dollar Save Gold? - 7th Dec 18
This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - 7th Dec 18
US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - 7th Dec 18
The Secret Weapon for Getting America 5G Ready - 7th Dec 18
These Oil Stocks Are a Ticking Time Bomb - 7th Dec 18
How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - 7th Dec 18
How easy is it to find a job in the UK iGaming industry? - 6th Dec 18
Curry's vs Jessops - Buying an Olympus TG-5 Tough Camera - 5th Dec 18
Yield Curve Harbinger of Stock Market Doom - 5th Dec 18
Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - 5th Dec 18
Global Economic Outlook after Trump-Xi Trade War Timeout - 5th Dec 18
Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - 5th Dec 18
Subverting BREXIT - British People vs Parliament Risks Revolution - 5th Dec 18
Profit from the Global Cannabis Boom by Investing in the Beverage Industry - 4th Dec 18
MP's Vote UK Government Behaving like a Dictatorship, in Contempt of Parliament - 4th Dec 18
Isn't It Amazing How The Fed Controls The Stock Market? - 4th Dec 18
Best Christmas LED String and Projector Lights for 2018 - Review - 4th Dec 18
The "Special 38" Markets You Should Trade ebook - 4th Dec 18
Subverting BrExit - AG Confirms May Backstop Deal Means UK Can NEVER LEAVE the EU! - 3rd Dec 18
The Bottled Water Bamboozle - 3rd Dec 18
Crude Oil After November’s Declines - 3rd Dec 18
Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Asia China Markets Risks - 3rd Dec 18
Weekly Charts and Update on Equity Markets, FX Trades and Commodities - 3rd Dec 18
TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - 3rd Dec 18
Stock Market Key (Short-term) Support Holds - 3rd Dec 18
Stocks Bull Market Tops Are a Process - 3rd Dec 18
More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - 3rd Dec 18
A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold - 2nd Dec 18
Elliott Wave: SPX Decision Time Is Coming Soon - 2nd Dec 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How You Could Make £2,850 Per Month

Review of Gold, Silver and Copper Charts and Implications of the Latest COTs

Commodities / Commodities Trading Apr 03, 2018 - 10:52 AM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Commodities

We've certainly got plenty to look at in coming days, but perhaps a good place to start is with a review of some of the latest COTs, because of their implications for the immediate future. The following charts make very clear why those in control of publishing COT data hold up its release for three days (the data is always for Tuesday's close) so that those at the top of the food chain can position themselves comfortably to benefit from early knowledge of what's going on before the ordinary shmuck does—observe how the uptrends in both copper and the broad market S&P 500 index presaged by the COTs have already started by the end of the week. In looking at the charts, keep in mind that markets were closed on Friday.


Short-term trend in gold is down, intermediate trend neutral, with long-term outlook very positive. On its latest 6-month chart we can that it has backed off again from resistance, this time from a slightly lower level, with the retreat predicated by the now bearish COTs, or rather it would be if it didn’t take three days for this information to be made public. Taking into account that the COT probably eased on Wednesday's and Thursday's drop, further short-term weakness look likely until this COT has moderated.

Click on chart to pop-up a larger, clearer version. Silver's price pattern looks less positive than gold's, but its latest COTs look flat out bullish, with the habitually wrong Large Specs having given up on silver completely and now shorting it, which is something we have never seen throughout the history of the site. This is viewed as being very bullish indeed. Even so, silver will probably have to wait for gold to sort itself out before it can mount a significant rally, since it is unlikely to rise by itself while gold languishes. Continued near-term weakness will be viewed as an opportunity to build positions further in silver investments. The latest silver COTs are so bullish that even if silver does drop in sympathy with gold, it is unlikely to be by much.

Click on chart to pop-up a larger, clearer version. It's also worth taking a brief look at copper and its COTs because of its implications for metals markets generally. Copper's COT has been decidedly bearish for some time, and it is thus not surprising that the price has dropped back from its December high. However, as it arrived back at an important support level last week, its COTs eased right back from earlier bearish readings to levels that permit copper to turn higher again, and that's what happened last week with another rally starting. With the price near to a still rising 200-day moving average, this rally is believed to have legs and should carry further.

Click on chart to pop-up a larger, clearer version. The broad stock market picked up on Friday and advanced off significant support near to its rising 200-day moving average, where a small base pattern formed over the past week. Overall the pattern is viewed as bearish with the two sharp drops so far this year regarded as a warning. However, it is entitled to rally off this support towards its March highs, although it is quite likely that it will turn lower again before it gets to them. Latest COTs quite came in bullish and support the rally scenario, although we should note that these S&P500 index COTs are volatile and can change tack very quickly.

Clive Maund has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.

Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Clive Maund and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Clive Maund is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in the content preparation. Clive Maund was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

Charts provided by the author.

CliveMaund.com Disclosure:
The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund's opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stoc kmarket analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund's opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules