Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19
The IPO Market Is Nowhere Near a Bubble - 9th Oct 19
US Stock Markets Trade Sideways – Waiting on News/Guidance  - 9th Oct 19
Amazon Selling Fake Hard Drives - 4tb WD Blue - How to Check Your Drive is Genuine  - 9th Oct 19
Whatever Happened to Philippines Debt Slavery?  - 9th Oct 19
Gold in the Negative Real Interest Rates Environment - 9th Oct 19
The Later United States Empire - 9th Oct 19
Gold It’s All About Real Interest Rates Not the US Dollar - 8th Oct 19
A Trump Impeachment Would Cause The Stock Market To Rally - 8th Oct 19
The Benefits of Applying for Online Loans - 8th Oct 19
Is There Life Left In Cannabis - 8th Oct 19
Yield Curve Inversion Current State - 7th Oct 19
Silver Is Cheap – And Getting Cheaper - 7th Oct 19
Stock Market Back to Neutral - 7th Oct 19
Free Market Capitalism: Laughably Predictable - 7th Oct 19
Four Fundamental Reasons to Buy Gold and Silver - 7th Oct 19
Gold and Silver Taking a Breather - 7th Oct 19
Check Engine Warning Light ECU Dealer Diagnostic Cost - Land Rover Discovery Sport - 6th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

The Stock Market Is Going To Crash

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 May 07, 2018 - 03:02 PM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Stock-Markets

Well, everyone else has been calling for a market crash, so I thought maybe I should too. But, while I think the market will likely crash again, I don’t think it is going to happen just yet, as I still believe this bull market has several more years to run.

When I peruse the articles on Seeking Alpha, it seems to be en vogue today to be bearish. The headline articles discuss how the market has now moved into being a bear market, or that the VIX is about to skyrocket, or the market is overvalued, discussions of black swans, the impending debt crisis, etc.


Turn back the clock to early 2016 and 45% lower in the S&P500, and were we not reading the exact same articles?

And, of course, this time is certainly different. There are a whole new set of issues that we need to worry about, right?

I mean, are the issues with which we are now grappling much worse than what we faced back in 2016 and 2017 when the market saw one of its strongest rally in years?

Think about it. Are we dealing with anything worse than the cessation of QE, North Korean atomic threat, major terrorist attacks worldwide, Brexit, Frexit, Grexit, Trump election, rising interest rates, and many more I don’t even care to list.

Now, if you have been an active member of the market over the last several years, and you have not come to the realization that all these “issues” mattered not to the market as it continued to soar, then you have not been paying attention. All these issues are purely bearish noise which a prudent investor learns how to tune out. Rather, a prudent investor understands when this noise simply helps build that wall of worry which the market climbs.

Have you been a prudent investor these last two years? If not, don’t you think it is time to take stock as to what you did wrong, and how you can correct that in the future?

And, if you do not have the tools to recognize what is bearish noise then maybe you can come join us at ElliottWaveTrader.net. We foresaw this rally years ago, as well as the correction within which we are now mired.

As to our immediate future, I am going to give you one number to watch in the coming week: 2645SPX.

As long as the market holds over 2645SPX early in the coming week, we are setting up to rally towards 2720SPX.

However, if the market breaks down below 2645SPX with an impulsive 5-wave structure, then we will be setting up to drop to the 2530-2555SPX region over the next week or so.

Now, for those who are going to read this article, and view this as my being indecisive, I want to remind you that my job is to give you guideposts to understand which path the market will take in the coming week. Anyone who can tell you with certainty what the market WILL do is truly clueless about how non-linear markets work.

Moreover, when you understand that the market has been mired within a 4thwave correction (the most variable wave within Elliott’s 5-wave structure), then you understand we are not yet set up for the trending move, as whipsaw will likely continue to be the name of the game.

For the last several months, the stock market has been desperately trying to shake both the longs and the shorts out of their positions. But, this is nothing new to those who understand how 4th waves take shape.

Once the market dropped in February down to our target for this 4th wave between 2424-2539SPX, I expected a rally to take us back over 2720SPX. After the rally back up to as high as 2800SPX from the 2532SPX low, I noted that the easy part of this 4th wave was likely done, and the action will likely become much more complex from that point forth. And, the market as certainly been much more choppy since that time.

And, as I noted during the week to my members, seasoned and experienced traders find huge value in understanding where we are within the market structure, as they reduce the number of trades they do during a 4th wave, in addition to reducing the amount of risk they are willing to accept during a 4th wave.

But, understanding that we are in a 4th wave also suggests that there is likely another rally around the corner; the 5th wave. So, I still expect that this market will see another rally, potentially into 2019, which takes us over 3000 in the SPX.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the S&P 500.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2018 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules