Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - James Burgess
3.Gold Price Trend Analysis - - Nadeem_Walayatt
4.The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - Richard_Mills
5.Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
7.Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - P_Radomski_CFA
8.Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - Ellen_Brown
9.Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - Zeal_LLC
10.The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation - Plunger
Last 7 days
Waiting for Gold Price to Erupt - 10th Dec 18
Stock Market Key Support Being Re-Tested - 10th Dec 18
May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis - 10th Dec 18
Listen to What Gold is Telling You - 10th Dec 18
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing - 10th Dec 18
Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals - 9th Dec 18
Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? - 9th Dec 18
Rising US Home Prices and Falling Sales - 8th Dec 18
Choosing Who the Autonomous Car Should Kill - 8th Dec 18
Stocks Selloff Boosting Gold - 8th Dec 18
Will Weak US Dollar Save Gold? - 7th Dec 18
This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - 7th Dec 18
US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - 7th Dec 18
The Secret Weapon for Getting America 5G Ready - 7th Dec 18
These Oil Stocks Are a Ticking Time Bomb - 7th Dec 18
How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - 7th Dec 18
How easy is it to find a job in the UK iGaming industry? - 6th Dec 18
Curry's vs Jessops - Buying an Olympus TG-5 Tough Camera - 5th Dec 18
Yield Curve Harbinger of Stock Market Doom - 5th Dec 18
Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - 5th Dec 18
Global Economic Outlook after Trump-Xi Trade War Timeout - 5th Dec 18
Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - 5th Dec 18
Subverting BREXIT - British People vs Parliament Risks Revolution - 5th Dec 18
Profit from the Global Cannabis Boom by Investing in the Beverage Industry - 4th Dec 18
MP's Vote UK Government Behaving like a Dictatorship, in Contempt of Parliament - 4th Dec 18
Isn't It Amazing How The Fed Controls The Stock Market? - 4th Dec 18
Best Christmas LED String and Projector Lights for 2018 - Review - 4th Dec 18
The "Special 38" Markets You Should Trade ebook - 4th Dec 18
Subverting BrExit - AG Confirms May Backstop Deal Means UK Can NEVER LEAVE the EU! - 3rd Dec 18
The Bottled Water Bamboozle - 3rd Dec 18
Crude Oil After November’s Declines - 3rd Dec 18
Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Asia China Markets Risks - 3rd Dec 18
Weekly Charts and Update on Equity Markets, FX Trades and Commodities - 3rd Dec 18
TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - 3rd Dec 18
Stock Market Key (Short-term) Support Holds - 3rd Dec 18
Stocks Bull Market Tops Are a Process - 3rd Dec 18
More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - 3rd Dec 18
A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold - 2nd Dec 18
Elliott Wave: SPX Decision Time Is Coming Soon - 2nd Dec 18
Junior Gold Stocks Q3’18 Fundamentals - 1st Dec 18
Little-Known BDC Stocks Thrive Amid Rising Rates and Earn Investors +7% Yields - 1st Dec 18
Ray Dalio: This Debt Cycle Will End Soon - 1st Dec 18
Bank of England Warns UK House Prices 30% BrExit Crash! - 1st Dec 18
Gold Fundamentals Improving but Not Bullish Yet - 30th Nov 18
What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale - 30th Nov 18
Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting Imnplications for Stock Market - 30th Nov 18
The US Economy is Getting Worse. What this Means for Stocks - 30th Nov 18
Trailblazers Leading the Way in Online Reputation Management - 30th Nov 18
The Shift in Trend from Physical Printers to Online Printers - 30th Nov 18
UK House Prices 2019 No Deal BrExit 30% Crash Warning! - 30th Nov 18
Stocks Rallied, New Uptrend? - 29th Nov 18
The Fed Will Probably Stop Hiking Rates in 2019. What’s Next for Stocks - 29th Nov 18
Love. Fear. Inflation. A Precious Metals' Trifecta - 29th Nov 18
GBP/USD – Double Bottom or Further Declines? - 29th Nov 18
Stock Market Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? - 29th Nov 18
UK Government and Bank of England BrExit Economic Armageddon Propaganda - 29th Nov 18
Why the Crude Oil Price Collapsed to $50 - 28th Nov 18
Gold Joins the Decline – the Earth is Shaking - 28th Nov 18
Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall - 28th Nov 18
GE’s Stock Price Crash Holds an Important Lesson About Investing - 28th Nov 18
5 Rules for Successful Trading - 28th Nov 18
Dollar Trend Imposes: EURUSD to Fall to 1.11 - 28th Nov 18
Gold, Original Money, Fiat Money - 28th Nov 18
When Will the Stocks Bull Market End? - 28th Nov 18
Looking ahead: Why the Smart Money is Investing in Green Energy - 28th Nov 18
The Yield Curve Will Invert Soon. What’s Next for the Stock Market - 27th Nov 18
Silver Trading and the Hands of a Broken Clock - 27th Nov 18
What's Inside SMIGGLE Christmas Advent Calender 2018 - 27th Nov 18
Investing in Recession Proof Trailer Parks - 27th Nov 18
The Advantages and Disadvantages of Debt Consolidation - 27th Nov 18
GDX, This Most-Hated Stock Could Return You 140% in Just a Few Months - 27th Nov 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How You Could Make £2,850 Per Month

Is It 2016 Again For U.S. Equities, Emerging Markets And Gold?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018 Jun 11, 2018 - 05:42 AM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Stock-Markets

Bears seem to be roaming wherever you look, whether it be in the US equity market, the gold market, and especially in the emerging markets as of recently. Whether I read articles, or the comments to those articles, it seems there is a common expectation that “emerging market dominoes are falling” and it will “cause deleveraging and contagion” across portfolios worldwide.

It certainly sounds like a dire situation is developing in the world today. Does it not?


Now, where have I heard this story before? Oh, yes. Back in early 2016, the common belief was the same as it seems to be now.

Yet, as we began 2016, I noted the following in my weekend update to subscribers of my analysis:

“Lastly, as I have been mentioning several times, I see the potential for 2016 being the year that major commodities, many emerging markets, and the U.S. equity market all bottom, and we begin a global melt up. So, stay tuned, as 2016-2018 will likely be a very interesting time.”

So, why was most of the market so bearish in early 2016, whereas I saw something so extremely different?

Most market participants and analysts alike see price heading in a specific direction and assume that it will continue in that direction indefinitely. While often there are times they would be correct for maintaining such an expectation, such as the stock market rally from 2016-2018, which we foresaw before it occurred, many of these prognostications do not have the benefit of understanding the larger perspective of where markets reside within their respective cycles. Understanding how markets progress and regress in the larger scale of their respective cycles can assist the average investor in maintaining on the correct side of the market the great majority of the time.

When our analysis of market sentiment (based upon Elliott Wave structures) couple with supporting technical readings, it usually provides us with a high probability perspective. And, that perspective aligns currently in the emerging markets, US equities and gold in the same way it did back in early 2016.

Admittedly, I do not see the same upside potential gains in the US Equity market and emerging markets as I did back in 2016, I still see the same bottoming set up as we experienced in early 2016. While we saw the potential for a multi-year rally beginning in early 2016 for equity and emerging markets, I think this rally will only present us with 6-12 months of rally potential.

For this reason, I see an opportunity in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. I think this fund presents us with a good vehicle to take advantage of the opportunity I am expecting in the emerging markets.

When it comes to the EEM, as long as the market holds over the 43 region, I am looking for a minimum upside target of 55, with a more ideal target at 60. In other words, as long as 43 holds as support, the sentiment pattern is pointing much higher rather than pointing to the implosion that many seem to be quite certain is taking hold. So, I would simply recognize the extreme negative sentiment as pointing to a bottoming in the complex.

Yet, since we can never know, with certainty, what the market will do, as we only base our analysis upon probabilities, we use these support levels within our risk management plans, and I suggest you do the same.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2018 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules