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US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

Currencies / US Dollar Jun 22, 2018 - 08:04 AM GMT

By: Austin_Galt

Currencies Previous analysis updated – price has continued rallying right up to the previous swing high and I believe the 2018 top was made today at 95.22. The expectation of a mini crash in the second half of the year remains unchanged.


Daily Chart

Pattern – we can see price turning down here creates a double top, and a bearish one at that as it is with the trend. Price actually nicked above the previous swing high before turning back down and closing lower, and in the process making a bearish outside reversal candle. This bearish stance will obviously need follow through to the downside while a move above today’s high will likely nullify both the short term and indeed longer term analysis.

Moving averages – still in a major bearish position despite the recent rally.

RSI – created a triple bearish divergence at this high. Nice.

Monthly Chart

Pattern – we are following a broadening top formation with a 5 point broadening top already in place. I believe this will morph into an even more bearish 7 point broadening top. In the meantime, a point 6 low is needed and my expectation is that price is about to get slammed into that low.

Fibonacci – price is currently back at resistance from the 38.2% angle. I doubt this resistance will be overcome. My target for the point 6 low remains the 76.4% angle while the 76.4% retracement level of 78.78 is not out of the question either.

Moving averages – price recently found support at the 200 month moving average (black) but with these averages in a bearish position I expect that support to be temporary only.

Summing up – I believe the high for 2018 was set today at 95.22 and a mini crash is about to unfold which sees price plummet to around the 80 level in the coming months.

By Austin Galt

www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

Austin Galt has previously worked as a stockbroker and investment banker while studying technical analysis for over two decades. He is also the author of the book White Night: A Colombian Odyssey

Email - info@thevoodooanalyst.com 

My website is www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

© 2018 Copyright  The Voodoo Analyst - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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