Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Bitcoin Tension Ramps up

Currencies / Bitcoin Jul 03, 2018 - 11:09 PM GMT

By: Mike_McAra

Currencies

The recent couple of days have turned the short-term outlook on its ear for some traders. The last couple of months have seemed like sooth sailing, not something that could be said about the Bitcoin market too many times in the past. Now, we get a different reading and some might say that the tide has turned. But you need to go deeper than that.

Bitcoin has gone up and the bulls are euphoric. This is a marked change from the recent weeks when there was little to nothing for Bitcoin aficionados to cheer to. The main question, however, remains: “Has anything changed?” With the recent appreciation, we could also ask: “Does this action change anything?” Is there anything that could drive the profits on our hypothetical speculative positions?


The move up is transpiring to the mainstream media. In an article on the CNBC website, we read:

After a sluggish start to the year, bitcoin started the month of July with a 12 percent rebound off of last week’s lows.

The cryptocurrency rose 4 percent Monday to near $6,550 as of 9:30 a.m. ET, hitting a high of $6,609.50, according to data from CoinDesk.

Last week, bitcoin skidded to its lowest level since November under $6,000, which traders attributed to CME futures contracts expiring and overall lackluster interest from new buyers. The world’s largest and first cryptocurrency has struggled from that lack of enthusiasm, and prices have dropped 52 percent since January, according to CoinDesk.

Actually, the article takes a sober approach, contrasting the recent action to the upside with the previous drop of 52%. So, even though the title might be implying a bullish change, the text offers a more balanced point of view, highlighting the extent of the previous declines. At a risk of stating the obvious,  Bitcoin’s recent rally pales in comparison with the previous depreciation.

Another point worth stressing is that even if you look at Bitcoin in a longer time horizon, like two or three years and are tempted to conclude that the currency is still up, consider the road you would have take had you bought Bitcoin at that time. To call it a roller coaster would be an understatement. How many investors would have been able to hold on to the currency through all the lows? And even if it’s not fancy to say this, Bitcoin’s volatility is something to keep in mind, something that might potentially get out of hand very quickly. That’s why being ultra bullish or bearish on this market all the time is not a great idea.

Back Above April 1 Low

On BitStamp, we are seeing a rebound from the recent low below $5,800. In particular, this rebound has brought Bitcoin above the level of the April 1 low. So, it’s tempting to see this action as a bullish turnaround.

We’re not in the business of choosing tempting outcomes, though. Actually, we’re very interested in seeing situations which look tempting one way but turn out to be exactly the opposite of what can be seen on the surface. And right now, if we’re not seeing such a situation, then at least we’re seeing one which could very quickly evolve to be one.

The short-term bullish outlook is not confirmed by daily closes. Neither is it confirmed by the volume that has accompanied the move up. So, in spite of the flashy nature of the move, we haven’t really seen much in the way of a bullish confirmation. The move above the April 1 low is the main bullish hint and it is not even confirmed yet.

Given the extent of the declines we can see on the chart above, it is only natural for Bitcoin to rebound and go up for some time before turning back South. This is further supported by the fact that the RSI is now back around 50, which suggests that the currency is not in an extreme position, so a move to the downside wouldn’t necessarily exhaust the selling power.

Limited Sign

On the long-term Bitfinex chart, we see that the currency is not in an extreme position either. Taking a look at the long-term chart and seeing Bitcoin in perspective might decisively change one’s outlook. Even if the current action seems exciting, it is nothing extraordinary compared with previous corrections in the currency.



Bitcoin is still above the level from which the bulk of the rally to $20,000 occurred. This level is at around $5,400, not very far from where the currency is trading at the moment of writing these words. So, there’s no bullish indication based on this level.

The one bullish indication we’re seeing at the moment is the fact that Bitcoin went below the level of the February bottom ($6,000) and came back above this level. This is a bullish indication and one based on a very significant support level – the February bottom was spectacular in terms of the volume. So, which one is more important – the lack of a range of bullish indications or the presence of one indication based on an important level?

Our answer here is that we might be seeing a short-term correction in the Bitcoin market. This might be why the currency is above the February low. At the same time, we haven’t seen multiple confirmed bullish indications, so the overall outlook remains bearish. A move up at this time is nothing out of the usual, given the extent of the previous declines. Betting on higher prices at this time, or even getting out of the shorts doesn’t seem the way to go as the volatility might rise rapidly and if Bitcoin goes back down, there might not be time to get back on the short side of the market.

The one thing that’s worth monitoring at this time is the volume in Bitcoin – if we see a further move up confirmed by the volume, we might change our short-term outlook but we’re not seeing this at the moment and the outlook remains bearish.

Summing up, the situation is very tense but the outlook remains bearish at the moment.

If you have enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive free follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter – it’s free and if you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up now.

Regards,

Mike McAra
Bitcoin Trading Strategist

Bitcoin Trading Alerts at SunshineProfits.com

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mike McAra and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mike McAra and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. McAra is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Mike McAra’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Mike McAra, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Mike McAra Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in