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Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Sep 18, 2008 - 09:11 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe December NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes below March's low crossing at 1703.75 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1527.12 later this fall. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1809.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 23.00. pts. at 1670.00 as of 5:55 AM CST. First resistance is broken support marked by March's low crossing at 1703.75. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1735.52. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1639.75. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1527.12. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by December NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.


The December S&P 500 index was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's sharp decline. Wednesday's breakout below July's low crossing at 1202.00 has renewed the decline off May's high while opening the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1135.90 later this fall. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1250.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is broken support marked by July's low crossing at 1202.00. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1223.56. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1157.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1135.90. The December S&P 500 Index was up 14.50 pts. at 1177.50 as of 5:59 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


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INTEREST RATES
December T-bonds were steady to slightly lower in quiet overnight trading as they consolidate some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish warning traders that a short-term top might be near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119-02 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 124-12 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 123-27. Second resistance level is monthly resistance crossing at 124-12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120-11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119-02. Overnight action sets the stage for September T-bonds to open steady to 3/32's lower when the day session begins later this morning.

ENERGY MARKETS
October crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this summer's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends this summer's decline, last January's low crossing at 84.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 100.29. Second resistance is broken support marked by the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 100.48. First support is Monday's low crossing at 90.51. Second support is last January's low crossing at 84.60.

October heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight but remains above the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 282.10. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 252.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 288.37. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.94. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 267.12. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 252.09.

October unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 248.85. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 226.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 272.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is broken support marked by the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 248.85. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 261.63. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 233.48. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 226.34.

October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's breakout above the 20- day moving average crossing at 7.718 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 8.880 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.528 would temper the near- term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8.214. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.880. First support is the reaction low crossing at 7.023. Second support is the 2005 July low crossing at 6.980.

CURRENCIES

The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.74. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the July-September rally crossing at 76.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.74. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.46. First support is the overnight low crossing at 77.31. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 76.50.

The December Euro was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's breakout above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.496. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 146.985 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 145.420. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July- September decline crossing at 146.985. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.496. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.378.  

The December British Pound was slightly higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's breakout above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.7889 confirming that a low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If December extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 1.8318 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.7694 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.8207. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1.8318. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.7889. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.7694.

The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's breakout above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9017 confirming that a low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at .9232 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8937 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .9222. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at .9232. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9017. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8937.

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and trading above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9414. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 95.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 91.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 94.79. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 95.91. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 92.22. Second support is monthly support crossing at 91.80.  

The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at .9812 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9339 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at .9717. Second resistance is May's high crossing at .9812. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9441. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9339.

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PRECIOUS METALS
October gold was sharply higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's historic rally due in part to a flight to quality move on the part of investors amidst the financial meltdown on Wall Street. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 896.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 794.00 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 893.30. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level crossing at 896.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 807.70. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 794.00.  

December silver was sharply higher overnight and is trading above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.462 as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 13.878 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.462 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 13.065. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 13.878. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.463. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.465.

December copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 325.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this summer's decline, last December's low crossing at 289.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 323.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 325.39. First support is the 87% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 303.96. Second support is last December's low crossing at 289.75.

FOOD & FIBER

December coffee closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below August's low crossing at 13.515 as it extended this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, last August's low crossing at 12.785 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.23 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.  

December cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 24.95. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 23.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

October sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends this month's decline, June's low crossing at 10.86 is the next downside target.

October cotton closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

December corn was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated some of Tuesday's limit down move. The corn market appears to be trying to divorce itself from negative influences from outside markets but so far has not confirmed that the divorce is complete. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 5.79 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above the late-August high crossing at 6.28 3/4 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. Closes below Wednesday's low of $5.26 would open the door for a test of August's low of $5.05. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.68 1/4. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.79 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.26. Second support is August's low crossing at 5.05.

December wheat was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Higher energy, precious metals along with a rebound in the equity markets overnight provided light support to the market. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session opens later this morning. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008 rally crossing at 5.98 is the next downside target.

December Kansas City Wheat closed up 27-cents at 7.61 1/2.

December Kansas City Wheat closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 6.88 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20- day moving average crossing at 8.24 1/4 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.

December Minneapolis wheat closed up 34 1/2-cents at 7.89 1/4.

December Minneapolis wheat closed sharply higher on Wednesday erasing Tuesday's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. If December extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 rally crossing at 6.88 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 5th gap crossing at 8.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low been posted.    

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
November soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as it rebounds off the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2008 rally crossing at 11.15 1/2. Light support came from spillover strength from crude oil, precious metals and the equity markets overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If November extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 10.45 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.43 1/4 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.72. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.43 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 11.07. Second support is April's low crossing at 10.45 1/4.

December soybean meal was higher due to light short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are neutral hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 342.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If December extends the decline off last month's high, August's low crossing at 311.20 is the next downside target.

December soybean oil was higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 75% retracement level of the August-2007/March-2008 rally crossing at 45.52. Light support overnight came from a rebound in crude oil and precious metals prices. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the August-2007/March-2008 rally crossing at 40.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

LIVESTOCK

October hogs closed up $0.80 at $68.27.

October hogs closed higher on Wednesday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If October extends the decline off August's high, the April low crossing at 65.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 70.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 69.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 70.15. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 65.80. Second support is the April's low crossing at 65.25.
February bellies closed down $0.02 at $90.10.

February bellies closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.62 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 84.60 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.  
October cattle closed down $0.15 at 102.60.

October cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 99.51 is the next downside target.
October feeder cattle closed down $1.37 at $106.30.

October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, March's low crossing at 104.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

By INO.com

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Comments

KRISHNA RAO
18 Sep 08, 09:50
THE PLAIN TRUTH

i fail to understand WHEN will they stop. I think they are damaging the economy more by these manipulations instead of biting the bullet once. They have managed to foster and develop a tactical lack of confidence in the markets as you never know what is going to hit you next. ( THEY HAVE LURED IN THE SOVREIGN WEALTH FUNDS AND AMBUSHED THEM )

The question being who gains out of these manipulations ??

Lets assume that they are smart instead of stupid..

There is no Standard, only a relative sense of measurement of worth or value may be in say commodities like oil and agri products.

NOW , IF IRAN IS ATTACKED NEXT MONTH .. WHO GAINS ??

IS SOME BODY BUYING OIL CONTRACTS ?? ( GOLD ) ??

REGARDS ,

KRISHNA RAO


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