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Theresa May No Confidence Vote, Next Tory Leader Betting Market Analysis and Forecasts

Politics / UK Politics Dec 12, 2018 - 10:38 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Theresa May, Britain's disastrous Prime Minister is likely counting down to her final hours in office after this morning failing to resign in response the triggering of a Vote of No Confidence in her leadership of the Conservative Party that follows her disastrous decision Monday to pull the Tuesday vote on her "EU Withdrawal Agreement" and then her catastrophic tour yesterday of Europe's capitals, literally begging EU Leaders for some scraps off their table. Most of whom looked on in amusement at the leader of a once mighty nation now groveling at their feet. Which was the straw that broke the camels back for many Tory MP's who wrote letters in their dozens to the Tory Party's 1920 back bench committee to triggered a vote of no confidence to take place between 6pm and 8pm today.


Today's vote of No confidence sets in motion the procedure that will result in a New leader for the Conservative party. As my analysis of nearly a month ago warned to expect with several possible BrExiteers as potential new leaders such as Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab.

NO DEAL HARD BrExit Tory Chaos, Theresa May Leadership Challenge

Theresa May No Confidence Vote

May consistent view is that Theresa May, Britain's disastrous Prime Minister will lose a vote of no confidence. However, now that the vote has been announced. The betting markets are clearly favouring Theresa May winning the vote with Betfair offering odds of just 1.4, against 3.35 for her losing today's vote, which presents an risk vs reward betting opportunity.

Furthermore my analysis of the betting markets further fine-tuned expectations of who was most likely to win what I saw as an inevitable Leadership challenge that I will now seek to update.

18 Nov 2018 - Next Tory Leader, Prime Minister Forecast and Betting Market Odds

Theresa May - Exit Dates

Firstly a month ago the odds at 2.9 favoured Theresa May leaving office before the end of December

Sunday 18th November - 4am

The latest odds show a widening in end December and a narrowing in Jan to March, which basically puts her leaving date at a coin toss now i.e. that she could lose today and but still stay on as PM for a few weeks into January rather that resigning. Personally, I still favour Theresa May leaving this month, but it is virtually a coin flip.

Next Tory Leader

Whilst Theresa May has vowed to fight on to win today's vote of no confidence for which she requires at least 50% of Tory MP's to vote for her. However, my consistent view is that her days in office were numbered and so who is most likely to replace her as Britain's Next Prime Minister in the countdown to BrExit day (29th March 2019).

A month ago the betting markets basically put the following four contenders neck and neck of which I most favoured Boris Johnson and rank outsider Jacob Rees-Mogg.

  • Dominic Raab
  • Sajid Javid
  • Boris Johnson
  • Michael Gove

18th Nov - 4am

The latest betting now puts Boris Johnson as the favourite though Dominic Raab and Sajid Javid are close at 7.2. Of note is that Jacob Rees-Mogg extending to 22 is now no longer in the running for PM, whilst Michael Gove who I LEAST would want to see as PM continues to cling on in contention at 10.

Therefore my analysis and now the betting markets continue to imply that Boris Johnson is most probable to become Britain's next Prime Minister in the countdown to a probable NO DEAL BREXIT.

For first Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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