Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

With Weaker Climate Consensus, Expect Elevated Climate Change

Politics / Climate Change Dec 16, 2018 - 04:24 PM GMT

By: Dan_Steinbock

Politics As the UN climate conference concluded with the expected dissension, efforts to contain global climate change are weakening at the worst historical moment. Emerging and developing countries will pay much of the bill.

As representatives from more than 100 countries debated climate change in the COP24 - the 24th UN climate change conference – held in Katowice, Poland, the outcome could only be divisive.


In the past, collective consensus by major economic powers - U.S., the EU, Japan and China - fueled success. Now the planned withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Accord resulted in a hollow consensus, supported by big-oil opposition.

Like the recent G20 Summit, which welcomed trade but did not reject protectionism that undermines trade, Katowice agreed on a “compromise,” which welcomed the alarming climate UN (IPCC) report, but not its actual findings. The price could be the virtual extinction of small island states as seas rise, followed by soaring costs of climate change in emerging and developing economies.

Katowice’s “administrative” compromise virtually ensures that the extreme urgency required by the “rule book,” which would allow countries to implement the Paris Agreement, will be ignored.

The planned Trump exit from Paris Accord

Risks have escalated since June 1 2017, when President Trump announced his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement - an international pact intended to reduce the effects of climate change by maintaining global temperatures “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.”

The Accord was negotiated by almost 200 parties and adopted by consensus in December 2015. Based on the UN convention on climate change, it focuses on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in 2020. 

However, Trump calls the pact a “bad deal” for the U.S. and sees the withdrawal as a key piece of the “America First” stance. The White House began to pave the exit path in March 2017, when Trump signed an executive order to start the formal process of repealing President Obama’s climate agenda.

The withdrawal split the White House, the Congress, and the nation. A few powerful lobbying groups, energy giants and billionaires effectively hijacked the fight against climate-change, which most Americans and U.S. cities support.

More recently, the White House ignored a new government report, which concluded that, in the absence of significant steps to subdue global warming, U.S. economy will take severe hits and cause the death of thousands of Americans by 2100.

It is within the U.S. president’s constitutional authority to withdraw from the Paris deal without first receiving congressional or senatorial approval. But legal questions linger as to how the Trump White House can execute the withdrawal and what role the U.S. can play in future international climate meetings.  

The role of China, emerging and developing economies

Since the early 2010s, it has often been said that China is the “world’s greatest polluter.” That’s true but only in aggregate terms. By default, big nations pollute more than small ones.

Moreover, emerging economies that are still industrializing generate relatively more pollution than advanced nations, which industrialized over a century ago.

The simple fact remains that, on per capita basis, the U.S. and major European economies remain the greatest polluters by far, however.

According to research, China contributes barely 10-12% of human influence on climate change. That figure has remained fairly steady over the industrial period. It is lower than might be expected for the world’s largest aggregate emitter.

 As the major advanced economies, including the U.S. and Europe, have been emitting far longer, their net contribution on climate change remains relatively far higher. Climate change is not just cumulative but accumulative.

If the U.S. exit will materialize, global climate risks will intensify dramatically, particularly in emerging and developing economies.

The 10 countries most affected by climate risk

Between 1998 and 2017, Puerto Rico, Honduras and Myanmar ranked highest among the countries that have been most affected by climate change. Less developed countries are generally more affected than industrialized countries. Yet, even, high income countries feel climate impacts more clearly than ever before.

Regarding future climate change, the new Global Climate Risk Index can serve as a red flag for already existing vulnerability that may further increase in regions where extreme events will become more frequent or more severe due to climate change. The 10 countries most affected in the past two decades feature mainly poorer economies in Asia (Myanmar, Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand) and Americas (Honduras, Haiti, Nicaragua and Guatemala) (Figure).

Figure          Long-Term Climate Risk *

* Annual averages, 1998-2017: Climate Risk Index 2019, GermanWatch; Difference Group

The Index measures long-term global risk as a function of death toll, deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, absolute losses in US$ millions, losses per unit GDP in percentage and total number of climate events from 1998 to 2017. In this regard, there are differences among the most affected countries.

In the case of Puerto Rico, the top rank was driven by a very high death toll and costly economic losses, but the number of events was low relative to other countries. In Myanmar, the high death toll explains the score. In Dominica, Puerto Rico and Haiti, the losses per unit GDP drove high rankings.

In international comparison, the Philippines death toll has been relatively high in the past two decades, while its economic losses were among the highest. But it is the number of total events in the Philippines (over 300) that was the highest among the top-10 countries.

Only Vietnam and Bangladesh come close, but even they had just two-thirds of the climate events in the Philippines. And in the top-ranking Puerto Rico and Honduras, total events were less than a 10th and 5th of those in the Philippines.

Toward accelerated climate change

Since the 1980s typhoons that strike East and Southeast Asia have intensified by 12–15%, with the proportion of storms of categories 4 and 5 having doubled, even tripled. Under increasing greenhouse gas forcing, the projected ocean surface warming pattern suggests that typhoons striking Asia will intensify further.

Ironically, global climate change will penalize particularly those economies where living standards remain low and that are most vulnerable to collateral damage. The more poor economies will lose lives, the more that will bespeak about the effective indifference of advanced nations toward real human rights.

Timing matters. Under the agreement, the earliest date of the U.S. withdrawal is November 2020 - the last month of the Trump presidency, in the absence of a prior impeachment. That’s when Americans have to decide whether they really prefer energy profits, at the expense of future generations in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Furthermore, time is running out. According to estimates, current climate policies virtually ensure that the increase in global temperatures is on pace for somewhere around 3.3 degrees Celsius.

That does not bode well for the future.

Dr Steinbock is the founder of the Difference Group and has served as the research director at the India, China, and America Institute (USA) and a visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more information, see http://www.differencegroup.net/

© 2018 Copyright Dan Steinbock - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Dan Steinbock Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules