Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment - 24th June 19
Stock Market New High, but…! - 24th June 19
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends - 24th June 19
How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms - 24th June 19
5 basic tips to help mitigate the vulnerability inherent in email communications - 24th June 19
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - 24th June 19
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Yield curve suggests that US Recession is near: Trading Setups

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019 Jan 11, 2019 - 10:26 AM GMT

By: FXCOT

Stock-Markets

Investors think recession risk is quite high. This, though, raises another question: Since investors have access to the same news and data as the Fed, how can they know the economy better than the Fed? Economist Jesse Edgerton of J.P. Morgan has found that economic data has a better record of predicting recession than the yield curve and right now, the data sees lower odds than the yield curve. Short-term interest rates are set by the Federal Reserve, and long-term rates by bond market investors. The curve has been flattening for the past two years as the Fed has slowly raised short-term rates in hopes of a “soft landing,” a slowing in growth that keeps both unemployment and inflation low and stable. But in recent months the flattening has been driven by falling bond yields. The usual interpretation: Investors in their collective wisdom think the Fed is overdoing it with rate increases and could shove the economy into recession, in which case short-term rates will be lower in a few years than they are now.


Investors in their collective wisdom think the Fed is overdoing it with rate increases and could shove the economy into recession, in which case short-term rates will be lower in a few years than they are now.

The yield curve can act as self fullfilling prophecy. When the long end of the curve starts to fall, it can trigger a herd mentality where more money will start to feed into the safety of long term treasuries. So in a way the inverting of the curve will not only predict the recession but causes it.

We attach some major charts and the market trading setups Dollar Index

Dollar Index has fallen below our key support level at 95.5. No bounce of these levels suggests there could be some more bearish pressure. Unless the FED is outright bullish when they talk later today, the narrative may not change. Risk aversion will be another trigger for some more dollar rally. We continue to suggest to clients to not trade manually or based on charts and indicators. Our trading system is pure price action based system which trades on BREAKOUT and Volatility and SCALPING. These are systems used in professional bank desks on super select prop desks. It takes out imagination fueled trades based on charts. If you would like to connect your mt4 to our system, please contact us

The stock indices are returning to the previous broken support level at 2600 to 2625. We expect equity markets to face fierce resistance and some short term pull back is expected. The 2625 level will decide the ultimate course of S&P if the bull market can pull back to 2800 or not.

The fear index, vix, is pointing to some short term bounce in volatility. The index has been continuously above 20 levels and has made trading far ore costly.

The weekly charts of ifutures show overhead resistance at 2630/25. We see those levels in play. The resolution of China trade talks and potential NK meeting will take it there.

The 30 min of the continuous futures, suggests that prices are not backing away yet of the strong overhead resistance. There could be further strength left in the rally before exhaustion. Bear market rallies can be sharp and take out almost all the bears. Be careful if you are a early shorter.

GOLD is near breakout level. 1298 level is the barrier and once it clears, we could push to 1325. Watch out for dovish fed commentary today.

Oil is nearing strong resistance at 54. A breakout above 54 could see some string upside move to 64. Only dollar strength can put a lid on oil.

Onto forex markets, things are dicey and difficult. Forex markets have become virtually impossible to trade for the small time retail trader trying to decipher charts and indicators. It simply is a 50:50 game. That is the reason why we rely on one of the world most profitable and secretive trading systems in the world. It operates on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and GOLD. It trades automatically with complete risk management.

Yesterday, when EURUSD broke out from 1.1482 to 1.1569, thousands of traders were caught short as the pair broke out.There was no specific reason for the price action. A normal trader would have missed the whole move. But FXCOT system entered long at precisely the break out level and rode the whole move to 1.1569. It is just the latest example of the perfection of the system.

EURUSD breakout was traded by FXCOT TRADE COPIER

See above how it went long at 1.1482 and kept initial stops at 1.1450 and then later to breakeven and later to trailing stops to protect stops. This is just one of the examples of the trades it has taken among hundreds available for scrutiny.

The system has made +6.5% in January, 2019. It performance in 2018 has been stellar where it made +130% return. See the performance below.

January returns are interim as we are still trading. These results are realised on client accounts and it could be on yours. All you need is a MT4 terminal from a world leading forex broker. You can apply here: New Application for MT4 account for FXCOT system .

Please contact us if you have any queries

FXCOT is Investment Management firm specializing in futures and forex trading. We run a high return trading system for our premier clients. The trading systems uses four different strategies to take advantage of various market conditions. We also send daily trade setups and economic commentary.

© 2019 Copyright FXCOT - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules