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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Financial Markets 2019

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, January 18, 2019

SPX and Gold; Pivotal Points at Hand / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Leaving aside our usual inclusion of macro fundamentals and market ratios, today let’s take a simple technical look at the S&P 500 and gold.

As the US stock market was becoming deeply oversold (and over-hated, sentiment-wise) in December we planned for a holiday seasonal bounce, which finally arrived with the immediate reversal after the Christmas Eve massacre when the machines (and a few human casino patrons) drove it to its downside climax. The bounce was almost a certainty, given the sentiment backdrop of the moment.

Our (NFTRH) view however, has been for an eventual decline from a significant momentum divergence (MACD & RSI) to the obvious support of 2100-2200 (which is also the rough measurement from the bearish pattern) on SPX per this weekly chart. The current market bounce was expected and necessary to rebuild the conditions for enough downside to meet our target.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

2018-2019 Pop Goes The Debt Bubble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Fiat paper money: Once gold and silver derivatives
Today, instruments of debt issued by central banks

After the 2008 financial crisis, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke invoked Milton Friedman’s theory that a helicopter drop of money could prevent a collapsing credit bubble from becoming a Great Depression.

When credit bubbles burst, defaulting debt and disappearing demand cause the velocity of money to plunge; and, in 2008, Bernanke resorted to Friedman’s untested theory hoping to prevent the US economy from collapsing as it did in the 1930s.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 11, 2019

Yield curve suggests that US Recession is near: Trading Setups / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: FXCOT

Investors think recession risk is quite high. This, though, raises another question: Since investors have access to the same news and data as the Fed, how can they know the economy better than the Fed? Economist Jesse Edgerton of J.P. Morgan has found that economic data has a better record of predicting recession than the yield curve and right now, the data sees lower odds than the yield curve. Short-term interest rates are set by the Federal Reserve, and long-term rates by bond market investors. The curve has been flattening for the past two years as the Fed has slowly raised short-term rates in hopes of a “soft landing,” a slowing in growth that keeps both unemployment and inflation low and stable. But in recent months the flattening has been driven by falling bond yields. The usual interpretation: Investors in their collective wisdom think the Fed is overdoing it with rate increases and could shove the economy into recession, in which case short-term rates will be lower in a few years than they are now.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 10, 2019

What’s Next for the US Dollar, Gold, Stocks & Bonds? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Axel_Merk

The quip, “if you aren’t confused, you aren’t paying attention” needs to be replaced: “with the Fed confused, you better pay attention.”  You may want to buckle up. Let me explain.

It all starts with the Fed... In assessing our crystal ball for 2019, the starting point is the Federal Reserve (Fed) because they provide an anchor for the price of risk-free assets (Treasuries) around which risk assets are priced.1 When rates were near zero and the Fed purchased Treasuries, it wasn’t only Treasury yields that were depressed, but the Fed pulled down yields of risk assets as well. Differently said, the Fed made it appear as if risky assets were less risky; this didn’t only affect bonds, but also equities that enjoyed years of rising prices on the backdrop of low volatility. This was the era of compressed risk premia.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 10, 2019

Gold, Stocks and the Flattening Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

The 3 Amigos were a blogger’s way of not boring himself to death while fleshing out important macro indicators month after month.

Amigo #1 (SPX/Gold ratio) got home and dropped from target. What’s more, it has taken back the ratio’s equivalent of the entire Trump rally and that is an eventuality we are very open to on nominal SPX as well.

The gaps are interesting and among several possibilities for 2019 we could see fear, loathing and a fill of the lower gap (a greed gap of sorts) prior to a filling of the upper gap, which could blow out the stock bull in manic fashion one day. Relax, it’s just one of several possible road maps. For now, we simply state that SPX/Gold reached a very viable target and dutifully dropped with the market stress.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 07, 2019

Market Predictions for 2019 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Michael_Pento

Bond Yields Continue to Fall in First Half of Year

The epoch bond bubble continues to build and become a dagger over the worldwide economy and markets. Wall Street Shills are fond of claiming that global bond yields remain at historically low levels due to central bank manipulations, but this argument is no longer tenable. It was once true, but QE on a net global basis has now gone negative. And the data shows the amount of U.S. publicly traded debt relative to GDP is much greater today than it was prior to the start of the Great Recession—even after adjusted for the size of the Fed’s balance sheet--in other words, taking into account all the debt the Fed has purchased and is still rolling over.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Gold and Dow Jones Big Profits from Big Channels / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: readtheticker

Big profits come from big swings within the long term channels. Here are the big channels for gold (GLD) and Dow Jones (INDU). Readtheticker has price data for 100+ years for the important securities.  The red arrows are points of interest. Gold holds support, demand present.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The primary focus of my in-depth analysis for January will continue to be on the UK housing market and I will seek to forecast the prospects for the US housing market for at least 2019, seeking to replicate the accuracy of my last US housing market 3 year trend forecast https://youtu.be/82ncGGgbhAk.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Warning: A Lehman Event is About to Hit Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Last week’s rally was the result of multiple interventions.

“Someone” took advantage of the extremely light holiday volume to ramp markets higher via indiscriminant buying. The media is trying to portray this action as the result of “investors” or “value seekers” but neither of those groups was involved.

This was a clear and obvious buying program made by “someone” who didn’t want stocks to officially enter a bear market by falling 20%. One of the key “tells” that this was manipulation is that underperformers like banks and homebuilders didn’t lead the rally.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Fake Markets and Return of the “Plunge Protection Team” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: MoneyMetals

It’s amazing what passes as a market these days.

Stocks rallied during the Christmas week, and the mainstream financial press would like you to believe bargain hunters swooped in after the weeks of heavy selling to grab some deals. The truth is there are very few actual people still evaluating the merits of publicly traded companies.

The markets are driven by programmed trading and central planning. The artificial nature of markets was on full display last week.

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sitenews

Monday, December 31, 2018

Happy New Year 2019 From the Market Oracle / sitenews / Financial Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Market Oracle Wishing a Happy and Prosperous New Year 2019 to all our readers.

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