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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Financial Markets 2019

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, May 20, 2019

A Brief History of Financial Entropy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Michael_Pento

The global economy began an experiment with fiscal and monetary alchemy when it exited the gold standard almost 50 years ago.
In 1971 the USD completely separated from the last vestiges of its tether to gold. In effect, it released the worldwide monetary system from any limitations of base money growth, as it was no longer pegged to the increase in the mine supply of gold. This is because the USD was once linked to gold and the rest of the developed world linked their currencies to the dollar. This was the case ever since The Bretton Woods agreement of 1944.

Therefore, when the U.S. severed the link to gold, the world entered into its doomed experiment with global fiat currencies and began its journey down the road to financial entropy.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 20, 2019

Are You Being Tossed Around By The China News? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

As I watched and traded the market action over the last several weeks, I witnessed something quite amazing. Yet, this was not the first time I have seen this.

Each time the market was set up for a smaller change of directional move, a news event or a “tweet” seemed to have come out at almost the exact time we need to see the market change direction.

While many saw the news as affecting the market direction, I saw the news as fitting into the market cycle.

I guess it is a matter of perspective, right?

Well, I am quite certain that many of you are thinking to yourself – “boy, that Avi is really foolish. It was clearer than the nose on my face that the negative China news caused the market to drop, whereas seemingly good China news caused the market to then rally.” And, if one takes a very superficial view of the market, one may come to that conclusion. However, I am attempting to open your minds to a much more mature and accurate perspective on how to view markets.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 17, 2019

Deflationary Assets Surge in Performance Over Inflationary Assets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Donald_W_Dony

Deflationary assets (financials, technology, industrials, healthcare and consumer products) are outperforming inflationary assets (commodities), once again.

Deflationary sectors have been dominant over inflationary assets for most of the last seven years. Outside of the short-term surge in performance from commodities in 2016, deflationary assets have held the top performance spot for most of the period from 2012 to 2019.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Trade Wars and Other Black Swan Threats to Your Investments / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: MoneyMetals

An unexpected news event caused the stock market to plunge over the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrials losing several hundred points. Stocks had been crawling back up toward new highs last month in low volatility trading…until suddenly, a black swan arrived.

According to Investopedia, “A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict.”

In the current era, a black swan can arrive by way of a simple tweet.

President Donald Trump took to Twitter to announce his administration would impose new tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as Friday while threatening an additional 25% levy on Chinese exports “shortly.”

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Dangers Beyond a Trade War with China / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Harry_Dent

U.S. markets have had a bad week. After reaching all-time highs recently – the Dow at 26,656.39 on April 23 (not quite new high), the S&P 500 at 2,945.83 on April 30, and the Nasdaq at 8,164 on May 3 – they’ve spent the last three days in the red. Monday, the Dow shed as much as 1.8% before pulling back to close only slightly lower. On Tuesday it had bled 1.8% by the close. The Nasdaq dropped 2.2% during trading before clawing some of that back. It ended trading on Tuesday 2% down.

In fact, the Dow had its worst day yesterday since January 3.

From the sounds of it, investors are unhappy with The Donald’s China trade deal tweets on Sunday. Really, they could have chosen any issue at hand – there are so many – for a reason to correct, but a correction was due regardless… because a pause is needed before the final blow-off rally in my Dark Window scenario.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 11, 2019

US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China – Stock Markets, Gold, and Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today, the US increased tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods as the US/China trade deal breaks down.  China has vowed to retaliate for the move.  The past week has seen the global markets shocked by two items: Iran sanctions and US/China trade breakdown.  The markets had been expecting a US/China trade deal to be reached and optimism was quite high – hence the rally in the Chinese stock market and the rally in the US stock market.  What next?

Well, we believe this news, as well as future news that will likely hit the markets over the next 3+ months, will continue to prompt the Shake-Out we have been warning about.  Depending on how severe these news events are, the rotation in the markets could be quite severe as well.

Our recent analysis suggests that recent lows in the US stock market may be near-term support and that the US stock market may attempt to form a bottom near these lows.  Our research shows the Transportation Index is leading this move.  We believe the ORANGE Moving Average level, as well as the RED and GREY Fibonacci projection points, will act as a temporary price floor this week and next.  The YM could move lower by 100 to 200 points today, retesting these low levels, before recovering near the end of the day.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, May 09, 2019

Trade Negotiation in Jeopardy After China Reneged its Commitment / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Summary

  • The odds of trade war escalation rises after Trump sent a pair of tweets threatening to increase tariffs to Chinese goods.
  • If there is no deal by this Friday, the tariffs to Chinese goods will rise to 25% from 10% on $300 billion. Additional $325 billion of Chinese goods will also get 25% tariff.
  • The rapid deterioration is due to the reversal of China’s commitment to address the U.S. core complaints.
  • U.S companies with huge presence and sales in China, like Apple, can suffer if there’s trade war escalation.
  • Elliott Wave Analysis on Apple suggests another major correction can happen.
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 07, 2019

Stocks, Oil, Gold: Inflation-Adjusted Returns / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

In late 1999, the hyper-bullish technology stock sector was nearing the end of its nearly decade-long run to unsupportable and overly optimistic highs. At the center of the hype and fascination were new companies, headed by twenty-something geniuses. They were referred to as startups.

The multiples of earnings that normally applied in order to assess value of these companies was thrown aside. That is because most of them did not have any earnings.

Nevertheless, they were attractive enough to garner huge crowds of support.  Just the hint of a revolutionary idea could boost an unknown small private company into the spotlight of the new issue market with over subscription being commonplace.

Technology stocks collapsed in 2000, and were eventually joined by the broader stock market which began a two-year descent that saw the S&P 500 lose fifty percent of its value.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 03, 2019

MAY Analysis - Stock Market, Machine Intelligence Stocks, House Prices and Gold & Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's a head up for planned analysis for MAY 2019 that will first be made available to Patrons who support my work. I aim to post at least 4 pieces of analysis as was the case for April. Primary analysis to include an update to the stock market trend forecast i.e. any deviation from trend, a look at Gold and / or Silver, more stocks to invest to profit from the machine intelligence mega-trend as well as reaping individual personal benefits i.e. in terms of longevity. As well as continuing in-depth analysis in my series seeking to conclude towards a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 03, 2019

US Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged – The Shake-Out Begins / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US Federal Reserve announced today they are leaving rates unchanged based on their latest meeting.  The markets should take this as a sign of relief.  Yet, hear all-time highs and expecting the Fed may actually decrease rates a bit, the market reacted with quiet price rotation near these highs.

The US Fed could have shaken up the markets even more, but we believe this move by the Fed will be interpreted as “Fed Uneasiness” with regards to the overall US and global economy at the moment.  A failure to prompt a rate increase could be seen as weakness by the Fed and uneasiness over the fragility of the US and Global economies.  Once this shake-out settles, the markets will go back to doing what the markets always do – interpreting future fair values.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Why Are The Markets Ignoring The US Treasury Yield Curve Inversion? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research continues to support a Bullish price bias over the next 30+ days, very likely reaching to new all-time highs again, before June/July 2019.  For many months, other researchers have continued to predict “doom and gloom” with warnings of Treasury yield inversions, global collapse events, and other crisis events.  Yes, we believe continued price rotation will drive future price swings and they could be volatile moves – yet we believe any crisis event will actually become an incredible opportunity for long traders to BUY into the markets at extreme lows.

Recently, our researchers focused on OIL and the Transportation Index as key elements suggesting this upside move is far from over.  Oil has moved from below $55 ppb to well above $60 ppb.  We believe this move will continue higher to target the $64 ppb level were resistance is likely to be found.  We do believe that some price rotation in Oil is likely to happen in the Summer months – when travel increases and Summer blend gas hits the markets.  Winter has been uniquely difficult this year and the rise in Oil prices, where OPEC and foreign market events have attempted to push prices above $50 ppb, is warranted given global economic activities.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

March Analysis Update - UK House Prices and Machine Intelligence Stocks Investing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's a quick heads up on what I am currently working on. I aim to complete two further pieces of analysis before the end of March that will first be made available to Patrons who support me work.

Firstly a continuation of my UK house prices series of analysis, with my fifth piece seeing if house building says anything different to my preceding analysis that continues to paint a bullish picture for UK house prices for many years.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 24, 2019

Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues…

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Forecasts

Friday, March 22, 2019

Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! / Forecasts / Financial Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

Today’s biggest news was that the Fed predicts no more rate hikes this year. Given that we are extremely late in this economic expansion cycle, this probably means that the Fed is also done hiking rates for this economic expansion cycle.

Of course, the news outlets and social media took this as “the Fed now acknowledges ‘recession risks’, so it’s time to run for the hills!”

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: EWI

Dear Investor,

Elliott Wave International is opening the doors to their entire lineup of trader-focused Pro Services -- but only for a week! It's a ticket that's worth $1,229.

Starting Wednesday, March 20, you get a week of free access to every forecast, every chart, every piece of expert analysis for 50+ markets -- stocks, forex, cryptos, gold, oil and more.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 15, 2019

Deflationary Assets are Outperforming / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Donald_W_Dony

During the current bull market, deflationary assets (industrials, technology, financials, communication, consumer discretionary and real estate) have greatly outperformed inflationary assets (commodities) for most of these past 10 years.

Martin Pring's Deflation/Inflation Index (Chart 1) illustrates that deflationary assets have largely outperformed inflationary assets from late 2011 to the beginning of 2016 and again from mid-2018 to the present.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

Gold and Stocks Bear Market Rallies: The Nascent Narcotic / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger reflects on the implications of recent market moves. The 2018-2019 bear market rally that we identified during the last week of 2018 via the 2019 Forecast Issue, entitled "2019: Mayhem, Misallocation and the Mockery of True Price Discovery," is now on record as one of the most ferocious rallies ever recorded, as short sellers are being carried out on stretchers and in body bags left, right and center. The youngsters out there who think their new and highly sophisticated analytical software will guide them through this minefield of intervention and deceit have obviously forgotten (or conveniently ignored) the immortal phrase from the lips of the legendary Marty Zweig, "Don't fight the tape and don't fight the Fed."

Earlier this month, I did fight the tape and the Fed by shorting the S&P 500 slightly beneath the 200-dma (daily moving average) at 2,738, placing the stop-loss at a 2-day close over 2,755. This resulted in a modest haircut of 23 S&P points and an ample serving of humility. I now have Marty's picture up on my wall right above the monitor to remind me that only in free markets can you use the old tools from preintervention eras.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 06, 2019

Higher Interest Rates & Market Risks Require Active, Careful Investment Management / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins me for a terrific conversation about gold, the Fed, stocks and the dollar. And find out why he believes investors will soon realize that it DOES matter again about where you put your money. Don’t miss my interview with Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.

Gold and silver markets closed out the month of January on a high note as the Federal Reserve signaled it would back off on further rate hikes.

On Wednesday, Fed policymakers voted unanimously to leave the central bank’s benchmark interest rate unchanged. Fed chairman Jerome Powell cited recent weakness in economic growth forecasts.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 05, 2019

A Crash is Coming - Bonds Yields, Oil and Credit Are Rolling Over / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Let’s cut through the nonsense.

The only reason that stocks are rallying is because investors are hoping the Fed has reinstated its policy of inflating stocks…

However, HOPE is very different from reality. And the Fed hinting at halting its rate hikes and possibly altering the schedule of QT is VERY different from cutting rates and engaging in QE.

Put simply, a Fed that says it might be less hawkish is not a dovish Fed. And the markets know it, though stocks always “get it last.”

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 04, 2019

Is The Stock Market Manic? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

VIX challenged Long-term support at 16.39, closing beneath it on Friday.  Primary Cycle [C] has been delayed another week.  While investors are heaving a sigh of relief, the Wave structure and Cycles suggest a strong reversal may be imminent.

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