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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stocks Going Sideways, Flat Correction or Some Topping Pattern?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 Feb 04, 2019 - 05:43 PM GMT

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock-Markets

Stocks were mixed on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index remained above the 2,700 mark. So will the uptrend continue? Or is this a topping pattern ahead of a downward reversal?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.3% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. So volatility was relatively small despite the monthly jobs data release. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation on Wednesday and it continued slightly higher in the late last week. The market is now at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% (2,713.88). It has gained 370 points from the late December medium-term low, but it is still around 235 points below the September 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3% on Friday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,710-2,720, marked by the mentioned 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Friday's daily high. The resistance level is also at 2,750-2,760. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,650, marked by the recent fluctuations. The support level is also at 2,615-2,625, marked by the short-term local lows.


The broad stock market broke below its two-month-long trading range in the mid-December, as the S&P 500 index fell below the level of 2,600. Then the market accelerated lower and it broke below the 2,400 mark. Since then, the market has retraced 61.8% of the whole decline off the September high. The index trades close to a possible resistance level of its previously broken upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart:

Short-Term Consolidation

The index futures contracts trade between 0.0% and +0.1% vs. their Friday's closing prices. So expectations before the opening of today's trading session are virtually flat. The European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. Investors will wait for the Factory Orders number announcement at 10:00 a.m. They will also wait for more quarterly corporate earnings releases. The broad stock market will likely fluctuate within a short-term consolidation after the recent rally. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some short-term technical overbought conditions.

The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it continues to fluctuate along the 2,700 level. The nearest important resistance level is at around 2,710-2,715. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,675-2,690, among others. The futures contract extends its short-term consolidation this morning, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Nasdaq Remains Close to 6,900

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it extends its short-term consolidation. The market gained over 1,100 points from December the 26th local low of around 5,820 in the recent weeks. The nearest important resistance level is now at 6,950-7,000. The support level is at 6,800-6,850, marked by the recent consolidation. The Nasdaq futures contract continues going sideways, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Apple Going Sideways, Amazon Lower After Earnings

Let's take a look at the Apple, Inc. stock (AAPL) daily chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). Apple released its quarterly earnings on Tuesday after the trading session's close. Then the stock broke above its recent trading range and the resistance level of $155-160. It retraced some more of its November-December sell-off. The next possible resistance level is at $170:

Now let's take a look at the daily chart of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN). The market broke above one of its three-month-long downward trend lines recently. Since then it has been going sideways. There is a resistance level at around $1,700-1,750. On Friday it bounced off that resistance level following Thursday's quarterly earnings release:

Dow Jones Slightly Above 25,000 Mark

The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its short-term uptrend on Friday, but it remained close to the medium-term downward trend line. So will it continue higher and reach the record high again? Or reverse lower in the near term? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far:

Japanese Nikkei Still Close to 21,000

Let's take a look at the Japanese Nikkei 225 index. It accelerated the downtrend in late December, as it fell slightly below the level of 19,000. Since then it has been retracing the downtrend. Recently it got close to 21,000 mark. For now, it still looks like an upward correction and the Nikkei is relatively weak, as it remains below the October - November local lows:

The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation on Wednesday, as investors reacted to the Fed's Rate Decision release. Is this a new medium-term uptrend or still just an upward correction before another medium-term leg lower? The market trades at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the whole medium-term decline. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. But we can see some short-term technical overbought conditions.

Concluding, the S&P 500 index will likely open virtually flat. We may see some profit-taking action. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far.

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Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts
SunshineProfits.com

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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