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UK House Building 20 Years Shortfall

Housing-Market / UK Housing Jun 01, 2019 - 02:36 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

The Tory government has once more pledged to build 300,000 homes per year to address Britain's chronic housing crisis which is set against the current pace of construction of about 200,000 homes per year. However, every government of the past 20 years has made similar promises to increase house building to targets of anywhere between 250,000 to 400,000 homes per year and ALL have FAILED to deliver! Every house building manifesto promise BROKEN! That's by Labour, Coalition, Tories, and our current DUP/Remain barely able to open a tin of beans government. So the first message is to take government house building targets with a giant pinch of salt!


However, against this consistent mantra of increasing house building is the reality of the real agenda which is actually not to increase house building to meet demand but rather one of leveraging house prices as being one of the primary drivers of the UK economy and thus the chances for electoral success, so forget opinions polls it is house prices that are one of the most accurate predictors for the outcome of UK general elections.

UK House Prices the Most Accurate General Election Forecast Predictor

Where the post financial crisis agenda has been further skewed towards inflating mortgage debt backed bank assets i.e. property values, which has been the primary objective of Governments since the financial world was brought to the very precipice of financial armageddon that scared the worlds governments and central banks shit less including the Bank of England, hence the policy of inflating asset prices so as to ensure that the insolvent banking crime syndicate does not collapse, hence the Bank of England has been busy funneling some £650 billion into the banking sector through a myriad of means the most prominent of which is Quantitative Easing or QE, that currently stands at £450 billion.

This is my latest analysis in a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. Where analysis to date suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria warnings of impending doom for Britains housing market, perpetrated no less than the Government and Bank of England which has warned to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.

Instead my analysis so far continues to paint a picture for UK house prices to remain on an overall upwards trend trajectory.

uk-house-prices-analysis-2019

So let's take a look at one of the fundamental drivers of UK house prices, HOUSE BUILDING, to see what has happened to date and what is likely to happen over the coming years and what it means for house prices, the facts rather than the manifesto bullshit promises of every government.

UK House Building and Population Growth

The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: UK House Building and House Prices Trend Forecast

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Scheduled Analysis :

  • China Stock Market SSEC
  • UK Housing market analysis
  • Betting on the Tory Leadership Contest
  • Stock Market Trend Forecast June 2019 Update
  • Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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