Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Perfect Storm Brewing for Price Inflation

Commodities / Inflation Jun 12, 2019 - 03:50 PM GMT

By: MoneyMetals

Commodities

A “perfect storm” is brewing for midwestern farmers. Unending rains have led to the flooding of tens of millions of acres of farmland. The deluge comes on the heels of years of low crop prices.

It has the makings of an agriculture disaster on a scale never seen before.

The nation may see a “perfect storm” in terms of food inflation. Prices for some farm commodities figure to be a lot higher in the months ahead as markets adjust to dramatically lower crop yields. This will be coupled with price hikes associated with tariffs on all manner of goods from China and elsewhere.


To top it off, the Fed is signaling a reversal. The next move in interest rates now figures to be lower.

Grain and soybean prices are already on the move. Corn prices began climbing rapidly in early May. Today the price per bushel is 20% higher than a month ago. Wheat prices are 7% above the lows of a month ago, and soybeans are 11% higher.

Chinese tariffs on U.S. agricultural products pushed prices lower earlier in the year. However, the longer-term effect of those particular tariffs may wind up being less than many think. The market for food commodities is global and demand is somewhat inelastic.Text Box: CPI Inflation Surpassed 3% in Past Year


More than a billion Chinese need to be fed. What they don’t purchase directly from the U.S. will need to be purchased elsewhere. We can expect to see an increase in American exports to other places.

President Trump increased the tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 25%. Americans can look forward to paying higher costs for many consumer goods in the months ahead. The chart below shows recent CPI data through April.

Costco told investors to watch for higher prices on the merchandise they sell in the most recent earnings call. The retail giant recently declared “prices will go up on things.”

Fed Chair Powell is using the tariffs and the prospect of price inflation as justification for changing course. He said last week the central bank “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” He and his cohorts stand ready to combat a weakening jobs market and dwindling international trade by lowering interest rates.

Bond yields are deeply inverted. Historically inversions of this sort have been a dark omen. They often signal a recession and falling stock prices.

Given the central bankers’ obsession with stock prices and ongoing pressure from the Trump administration to avoid any major correction, the Fed moving preemptively to cut interest rates isn’t surprising.

However, it isn’t at all certain that lowering rates now can forestall what is coming. Individuals and corporations have already binged on debt. The growing mountain of borrowed money is weakening the nation’s economic prospects, not making them stronger.

The adjacent chart is telling:

Stock prices are riding upon the “Fed Put.” There is no great earnings strength anymore. Stock investors simply won’t sell stocks because they anticipate the Fed will step in with stimulus.

That expectation is 100% logical given the central bank’s track record. But logic also dictates something else: stock prices will one day reflect earnings reality.

If lowering rates doesn’t work to prop up stock prices, we can count on the Fed to double down by dropping rates again or by finding even more exotic and aggressive ways to stimulate.

This all amounts to bad news for the U.S. dollar and for consumers who will have to contend with higher prices.

But there is a silver lining for precious metals investors…

Concerns over price inflation have been absent from the markets for nearly a decade. Gold and silver markets are heavily reliant upon safe-haven demand as a key driver. With powerful inflationary forces now building, that demand looks like it’s about to surge.

By Clint Siegner

MoneyMetals.com

Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, perhaps the nation's fastest-growing dealer of low-premium precious metals coins, rounds, and bars. Siegner, a graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals' brand and reach. This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs.

© 2019 Clint Siegner - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in