Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 Jun 18, 2019 - 09:30 AM GMT

What stands out from the long-term chart is that Silver tends to be pretty much dead for most of the time, only really coming alive towards the later stages of precious metals bull market manias when everyone begins piling in just before the bubble pops! Which is a warning not to get carried away with fantasy targets for Silver but try and keep things real by focusing on what silver has done in the past, namely the Silver price cap is $50.

I could try and hunt for fundamental reasons why Silver tends to spike from time to time but it's really just speculative interest i.e. a buying mania. With all of the reasons often put forward such as a weak dollar not stacking up to close scrutiny, for yes a falling dollar is bullish for Silver, but not to the extent that many gold and silver bugs imagine it to be as the long-term dollar chart illustrates little correlation against the Silver long-term chart.

Presently Silver is stuck in a multi-year trading range of between $13.50 and $21, pending a mania driven spike higher.

The downtrend off of a high of $21.23 was targeting a trend towards support of $13-$14, that a decline to $13.86 achieved during 2018. However there is no sign on the long-term chart that the Silver price is going to come alive any time soon i.e. it could continue to trade in a tight trading range of $18.50 to $13 for some years.

On the brightside the downside is limited to around $13, with greater upside potential of a trend to $18 and then $21 a breakout of which would target a spike to at least $35 and if your nimble you could cash out on the way towards $50.

Whilst the longer the silver price spends trading at low price levels then less investment in new supply (mining) thus sows the seeds for a future mania driven price spike.

The rest of this analysis was first made Patrons who support my work. Silver Investing Trend Analysis and Price Forecast 2019

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Nadeem Walayat

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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