Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Tesco Shelves, Stock Piling, Hoarding Preppers - 22nd Mar 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing - 21st Mar 20
Your Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade—Fix It with the “Anti-Stock” - 21st Mar 20
CORONA HOAX: This Is Almost Completely Contrived and Here’s Proof - 21st Mar 20
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 - 21st Mar 20
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test - 21st Mar 20
Napag and Napag Trading Best Petroleum & Crude Oil Company - 21st Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - Government PANICs! Sterling Crashes! - 20th Mar 20
UK Critical Care Nurse Cries at Empty SuperMarket Shelves, Coronavirus Panic Buying Stockpiling - 20th Mar 20
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War - 20th Mar 20
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin - 20th Mar 20
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking - 20th Mar 20
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - 20th Mar 20
The Coronavirus Contraction - Only Cooperation Can Defeat Impending Global Crisis - 20th Mar 20
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? - 20th Mar 20
Alessandro De Dorides - Business Consultant - 20th Mar 20
Why a Second Depression is Possible but Not Likely - 20th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Market Final S/T Push?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 Jul 03, 2019 - 03:13 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  The intermediate-term correction continues  to unfold.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers.  If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com

 A Final S/T Push?

Market Overview

The short-term top anticipated in the last newsletter did not disappoint and SPX retraced fifty-two points, assisted by the minor cycle which was due to make its low last week, and arrived on Wednesday.  It is important to note that a similar cycle only caused a pull-back of thirty-two points on June 16.  Last week’s deeper set-back of fifty-two points represents deceleration in the current uptrend, warning us that a larger cycle is beginning to roll over, which fits in with our expectation that we are about to resume the downtrend into August-September before long. 

With the minor cycle having made its low and providing upward lift to prices, it is now a question of whether we are now heading for a slightly new high, or will simply retest the 2064 high reached on the last up-thrust.  Enough congestion was produced at last week’s low to take the index up to about 2995-3000.  With the market closing strong on Friday, and IWM leading the other indexes, it is likely that the current budding uptrend will first blossom before fading in the next few days. 

I mentioned earlier that the market action had nullified a previous EWT structure which called for a zig-zag correction, but the current market pattern has not eliminated the possibility of this still being another form of a large corrective formation!  I’ll leave it to the EWT experts to render final judgment, but until the index does more than make a pip-squeak new high, the danger of a severe retracement is still present.

Technical Analysis (Charts appearing below are courtesy of QCharts.)

SPX daily chart

You can see how well the trend lines drawn at the top of the rally have contained prices.  I expect that this will continue for the next up-thrust.  Above, I mention that deceleration was evident because the last pull-back was greater than the first.  Even more evident is the fact that the second up-phase of the uptrend, which was ninety points, is far shorter than the first.  This means that if we are making an impulse wave from the 2728 bottom, it should top out with a rally which is shorter than 90 points.  In other words, the rally would have to come to an end below 3003, which is consistent with the P&F projection.  Something else to hang our hat on!

The major premise is that we are still in a large corrective wave and that the index will eventually take us to the vicinity of the 2346 low (or lower) before we resume our long-term uptrend.  But for now, since we have already made a new all-time high – and are probably ready to make another – let’s look at the current pattern!  Since we came out of the original blue channel, we seem to have morphed into a wider, less steep, purple channel which remains valid as long as we make new highs and stay within its confines.  We know (with a certain amount of certainty) that we are about to make a short-term top in the vicinity of SPX 3000.  We cannot be sure of what that top will represent until we analyze the subsequent market action, but we do have a pretty good hunch that it will be followed by a decline into the August-September cycle lows, and it will make all the difference in the world if we manage to remain above the lower purple channel line and the 2728 level.  The odds of doing this are small at this time, but we will need to drop below 2728 to ascertain that we are still in a major corrective wave   

 

SPX hourly chart

With the minor cycle having made its low last week, it’s a pretty good bet that we’ll keep going up next week, especially since Trump and Xi Jinping have agreed to some sort of a truce in their trade war, however long that is likely to last, because the fundamental disagreements have not and may not ever be resolved completely.  But that agreement probably created enough of a catalyst to push the market a little higher in conjunction with cycles and structure (chicken/egg situation).

There are several trend lines shown above!   Some of these will be penetrated and some will act as resistance, until we get to the vicinity of the projection and are ready for a reversal.  Then, we’ll start breaking trend lines on the downside, including the primary conventional trend line which has not yet been drawn but which, when it is broken, will signal the beginning of the next downtrend.  Just keep in mind that when we end this rally, what we start is not likely to be anything minor, but its extent has not yet been determined except in time, since it is likely to continue into August-September.  It would be wise not to look for a resumption of the uptrend at least until then, and perhaps until considerably later, depending on how the current structure pans out when it is complete.

Best S/T guesstimate at this time is that we make another slightly new high before we roll over.   

QQQ, SPX, DJIA, IWM (weekly)

I am deeply grateful to the muse which keeps inspiring IWM to lead the rest of the market in all time frames.  On the following charts, it is apparent that this index continues to lag severely.  It did so in conjunction with DJIA for a period of time, but the latter has since then made a good recovery.  Not IWM, which first showed itself to be the leader on the downside last week, and then on the upside.  But its statement is clear with regard to the longer term:  this market is not ready to resume its long term uptrend in the near future, period!

UUP (dollar ETF)

UUP did find some support on the lower minor channel line.  It has not had much of a bounce, but that could still be ahead of us.  Normally, one would expect a retracement to about the middle of the channel, even in an index which shows weakness by remaining below all three MAs.

GDX (Gold miners ETF) daily

After a strong breakout above the base line, GDX is consolidating.  If no serious selling takes place over the next week, it could make another push to its next projection target of ~28 before engaging in a deeper and more prolonged correction. 

ACB (Aurora Cannabis) daily

Aurora is looking better and may be putting an end to its consolidation period.  After an initial low and retest of that low, it bounced back up to the top of a short base.  As long as both oscillators remain strongly positive, I believe that the stock could break above its purple trend line and move up to the red one before more consolidation takes place.

 

BNO (U.S. Brent oil fund) daily

BNO found resistance where expected and was pushed back below both MAs.  It may retest the top of the minor trend before more of a pull-back.

 

Summary

The minor cycle which bottomed last week is providing the lift necessary to push the index to the vicinity of 3000 and to complete the move from 2728 before a more protracted decline takes hold.   

Andre 

FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTON

For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to anvi1962@cableone.net, or go to www.marketurningpoints.com and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules