Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro - 21st Oct 20
Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price - 21st Oct 20
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone - 21st Oct 20
High-Profile Billionaire Gives Urgent Message to Stock Investors - 21st Oct 20
What's it Like to be a Budgie - Unique in a Cage 4K VR 360 - 21st Oct 20
Auto Trading: A Beginner Guide to Automation in Forex - 21st Oct 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? - 20th Oct 20
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation - 20th Oct 20
Last Chance for this FREE Online Trading Course Worth $129 value - 20th Oct 20
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 20th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 32 Inch Curved Gaming Monitor Unboxing and Stand Assembly and Range of Movement - 20th Oct 20
Best Retail POS Software In Australia - 20th Oct 20
From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One - 19th Oct 20
Wales Closes Border With England, Stranded Motorists on Severn Bridge? Covid-19 Police Road Blocks - 19th Oct 20
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes - 19th Oct 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout - 19th Oct 20
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids - 19th Oct 20
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth - 19th Oct 20
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before - 19th Oct 20
Is Oculus Quest 2 Good Upgrade for Samsung Gear VR Users? - 19th Oct 20
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold - 17th Oct 20
US 2020 Election: Are American's ready for Trump 2nd Term Twilight Zone Presidency? - 17th Oct 20
Custom Ryzen 5950x, 5900x, 5800x , RTX 3080, 3070 64gb DDR4 Gaming PC System Build Specs - 17th Oct 20
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again - 16th Oct 20
US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue - 16th Oct 20
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today - 16th Oct 20
Why Now is BEST Time to Upgrade Your PC System for Years - Ryzen 5000 CPUs, Nvidia RTX 3000 GPU's - 16th Oct 20
Beware of Trump’s October (November?) Election Surprise - 15th Oct 20
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc - 15th Oct 20
Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy - 15th Oct 20
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? - 15th Oct 20
Things you Should know before Trade Cryptos - 15th Oct 20
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt - 14th Oct 20
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… - 14th Oct 20
US Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind - 14th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 31.5 Inch VA Gaming Monitor Amazon Prime Day Bargain Price! But WIll it Get Delivered? - 14th Oct 20
Karcher K7 Pressure Washer Amazon Prime Day Bargain 51% Discount! - 14th Oct 20
Top Strategies Day Traders Adopt - 14th Oct 20
AMD is KILLING Intel as Ryzen Zen 3 Takes Gaming Crown, AMD Set to Achieve CPU Market Dominance - 13th Oct 20
Amazon Prime Day Real or Fake Sales to Get Rid of Dead Stock? - 13th Oct 20
Stock Market Short-term Top Expected - 13th Oct 20
Fun Stuff to Do with a Budgie or Parakeet, a Child's Best Pet Bird Friend - 13th Oct 20
Who Will Win the Race to Open a Casino in Japan? - 13th Oct 20
Fear Grips Stock Market Short-Sellers -- What to Make of It - 12th Oct 20
For Some Remote Workers, It Pays to Stay Home… If Home Stays Local - 12th Oct 20
A Big Move In Silver: Watch The Currency Markets - 12th Oct 20
Precious Metals and Commodities Comprehensive - 11th Oct 20
The Election Does Not Matter, Stick With Stock Winners Like Clean Energy - 11th Oct 20
Gold Stocks Are Cheap, But Not for Long - 11th Oct 20
Gold Miners Ready to Fall Further - 10th Oct 29
What Happens When the Stumble-Through Economy Stalls - 10th Oct 29
This Is What The Stock Market Is Saying About Trump’s Re-Election - 10th Oct 29
Here Is Everything You Must Know About Insolvency - 10th Oct 29
Sheffield Coronavirus Warning - UK Heading for Higher Covid-19 Infections than April Peak! - 10th Oct 29
Q2 Was Disastrous. But What’s Next for the US Economy – and Gold? - 9th Oct 20
Q4 Market Forecast: How to Invest in a World Awash in Debt - 9th Oct 20
A complete paradigm shift will make gold the generational trade - 9th Oct 20
Why You Should Look for Stocks Climbing Out of a “Big Base” - 9th Oct 20
UK Coronavirus Pandemic Wave 2 - Daily Covid-19 Positive Test Cases Forecast - 9th Oct 20
Ryzen ZEN 3: The Final Nail in Intel's Coffin! Cinebench Scores 5300x, 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x - 9th Oct 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Slowing Western economies will force new QE: Trading Setups and Deep analysis

Economics / Global Economy Jul 08, 2019 - 03:07 PM GMT

By: QUANTO

Economics

The world is slowing down dramatically. At the same time, the largest economy is hurtling towards an election. Al governments who go to election will try to massage the numbers and pump the stock markets. So while the economy slows, the governmment is buzy pumping markets higher with his tweets.

The slowing down economy can be seen in numerous metrics and we believe central banks will be forced to begin a new round of QE. This time they will need to face up to inflation even as they pump in money.

Key metrics and charts shown below.


Germany Construction PMI

Construction PMI reported at 50.0 is lower than the previous release at 51.4. The mean for " Construction PMI " over the last 33 releases is 53.2. The current actual data is lower than the mean of the last 33 releases. The last reported data was on 2019-07-04

US ISM Employment Index

Crude Inventory

The current actual data at -1.085 is higher than the previous release at -12.788. There is a larger drawdown than expected. The mean for " EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change " over the last 100 releases is -0.4. The current actual data is lower than the mean of the last 100 releases. The last reported data was on 2019-07-03

Factory orders: Dip in June

Trump Tariff war is having a slowing effect on factory orders. Things are going to get worse a factory orders have an impact on hiring and then on the larger economy. The current actual data at 0.1 is lower than the previous release at 0.2. The mean for " Factory Orders ex Transportation " over the last 61 releases is 0.1. The current actual data is lower than the mean of the last 77 releases. The last reported data was on 2019-07-03.

ISM Prices

Pirce ticked higher even as activity slowed down. The current actual data at 58.9 is higher than the previous release at 55.4. The mean for " ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices " over the last 55 releases is 54.8. The latest release is greater than the mean of the last 55 releases. The last reported data was on 2019-07-03.

ISM Nonmanufacturing new orders

Not only is factory order suffering, the new orders for non-manufacturing section is also slowing down. Data came in at 55.8 lower than the previous release at 58.6. The mean for " ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders " over the last 53 releases is 58.4. The current actual data is lower than the mean of the last 53 releases.

Non Manufacturing Business Activity

Business activity slowed down in the non-manufactring sector.The current actual data at 58.2 is lower than the previous release at 61.2. The mean for " ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity " over the last 52 releases is 59.1. The current actual data is lower than the mean of the last 52 releases.

ISM Employment in Nonmanufacturing

One of the most important indices within the ISM report is the employment index. It ticked lower in June. Data came in at 55 is lower than the previous release at 58.1. The mean for " ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment " over the last 54 releases is 54.3. The latest release is greater than the mean of the last 54 releases. The last reported data was on 2019-07-03

The PMI shows the weakening trend in business activity and survey.

UK Car registration On the other side of atlantic, UK is slowing down far faster than any other G7 economy. We just look at one parameter here and leave the more detailed one later.

The current actual data at -4.9 is lower than the previous release at -4.6. The mean for " New Car Sales YoY " over the last 25 releases is -7.0. The latest release is greater than the mean of the last 25 releases. The last reported data was on 2019-07-04

Fundamentally, we do see a major slowdown in US, UK and EU. We have not looked at Asia but generally Asian economies feed upon the western counterparts. Central banks will have to restart their QE programs and this time its effect will be much lower.

Dollar Index is at resistance and it could dip lower.

DXY is trading a tad below recent tops in the boundaries of 96.90, challenging the critical support at the 200-day SM in the 96.60 region. This significant area of contention is also reinforced by the multi-month resistance line, today at 96.73. Immediately above emerges the 100-day SMA at 97.08 ahead of the 55-day SMA at 97.31, considered interim hurdles and the last defence of a test of June tops near 97.80.

Crypto Charts

Bitcoin on normal candlestick daily shows a price action which looks tired and unwilling to push higher. But on the renko charts free of much of the noise, the uptrend is solid and pushing teh outer boundary of the bollinger bands. Only under 10000 can bitcoin be considered for shorting.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD pair dropped to fresh nine-month lows on Thursday, albeit now seemed to have found some support ahead of mid-1.3000s. The mentioned support nears Nov. 2018 swing lows and should now act as a key pivotal point for the next leg of a directional move. Given the recent bearish break below important confluence support – comprising of the very important 200-day SMA and 5-1/2-month-old ascending trend-line, bearish traders are likely to maintain their dominant position. However, technical indicators on the daily chart have moved on the verge of falling into the oversold territory, which might eventually turn out to be the only factor holding investors from placing any aggressive bearish bets. Sustained weakness below the mentioned support will confirm a fresh near-term bearish breakdown, though traders are likely to wait for Friday’s important releases of monthly jobs report from Canada and NFP from the US.  A follow-through selling now seems to turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide further towards challenging the key 1.30 psychological mark before the bearish momentum gets extended further towards the 1.2970-65 region. On the flip side, attempted recoveries might now confront immediate resistance near the 1.3100 round figure mark and any subsequent up-move seems more likely to remain capped near weekly tops, around the 1.3140-45 supply zone.

AUDUSD setups

The prevalent USD selling bias helped build on the recent up-move. Bulls seemed rather unaffected by softer Aussie retail sales figures. Fading US-China trade optimism capped gains amid thin trading. The AUD/USD pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick to near two-month tops and has now retreated to the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 0.7030 region. The pair continued gaining positive traction for the third consecutive session on Thursday and built on the post-RBA bounce from 50-day SMA amid the prevalent US Dollar selling bias. The ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields to their lowest level in more than 2-1/2 year lows kept the USD bulls on the defensive and remained supportive of the recent up-move. The buck was further pressurized by Wednesday's disappointing US macro data, showing that the US private-sector employers added less-than-expected 102K jobs in June while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell to 55.1 as compared to 55.9 expected and 56.9 previous, which reinforced market expectations that the Fed will eventually cut interest rates in July.

GBPUSD Setups

GBP/USD pair continues to hold below the 1.2763/72 resistance (the 7th June high and February low) and they maintain a slightly negative bias. The Elliott wave count on the daily chart is negative implying that the market is likely to slide back towards the 1.2559/1.2506 recent lows. Below 1.2506 would target the 1.2444 December 2018 low. This is the last defence for 1.2108, the 78.6% retracement of the move up from 2016. The market will have to overcome last weeks high at 1.2784 on a closing basis in order to generate some further upside interest. This will target the 200 day ma at 1.2913, but we are looking for this to then cap the topside.

In a world where fundamentals and technicals and Twitter feeds are driving the markets, it is important to be cautious in trading. We use QUANTO trade system to trade forex. It is the most profitable trading system in the world and generated considerable wealth.

QUANTO TRADE COPIER The Trade history performance is shown below. The current performance can be checked at https://quanto.live

Source: https://quanto.live/2019/07/04/slowing-western-economies-will-force-new-qe-trading-setups-and-deep-analysis/

QUANTO is a trading system which combined Market Profile Theory and Kletner channels. It is hugely profitable. There was a trader back in If you would like to start right away, please contact us.  Our email: Partners@quanto.live

By Quanto

http://quanto.live

Quanto.live is a Investment Management firm with active Trading for clients including Forex, Crypto. We send our trades via trade copiers which are copied to clients trading terminals. Top notch fundamental analysis and trading analysis help our clients to generate superior returns. Reach out to us: http://quanto.live/reach-us/

© 2019 Copyright Quanto - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules