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US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

Housing-Market / US Housing Jul 20, 2019 - 03:36 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

This is the final analysis in my US housing market series that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast.

  • Current State
  • Momentum Analysis
  • US ECONOMY - GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Producer Prices Index
  • Yield Curve
  • US Debt
  • QE4EVER!
  • DEMOGRAPHICS
  • US Home Builders Index (XHB)
  • US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
  • US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
  • Peering into the Mists of Time

Formulating a US House Prices Forecast

Momentum , economic and trend analysis paints an overall bullish picture for US house prices, one of first a continuation of the correction coming into 2019 that resolves in a resumption of the bull run into the end of 2020 that was targeting house price inflation of about +7% over these 2 full years of data into early 2021. Which would convert into the Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to about 242 (Jan 2021 data).

However, against this we have a near certain Imminent real terms SELL Signal, that implies to expect a much tougher 2019 and a shallower bounce into the end of 2020, which will likely see house prices entering into a significant down trend going into 2021. So US house prices will be lucky to achieve even half 7%.

US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion

Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a relatively weak continuation of the US housing bull market into late 2020 at a much shallower pace than experienced in recent years for a likely gain of just 3% over the next 2 years (Jan 2019 to Jan 2021) before entering into a downtrend going into 2021 i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to 232.4 (Jan 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.

Peering into the Mists of Time

Standing here in April 2019, late 2020 and 2021 look set to be a tough time for the US economy, house prices, and the stock market, markets that tend to discount the future i.e. not wait for GDP to start falling before they take a tumble. Which is good because any drops in target stocks will provide another opportunity to invest in the machine intelligence mega-trend.

The whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work: https://www.patreon.com/posts/us-house-prices-26484438

So for First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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