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Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update (1/2)

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 Aug 01, 2019 - 05:20 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

Silver, the precious metals coiled swing has just given us a taste of what to expect as the price shot higher during July, last trading at $16,56, up 12% since my analysis of 10th June ($14.74). Silver had been lagging the gold price all year, even entering into a downtrend early July that resolved in a $2, 15% surge higher as the following Silver / Gold graph illustrates.


My analysis of 11th June concluded in my following updated expectations for 2019 Silver Investing Trend Analysis and Price Forecast 2019

Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion

Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Silver price to continue to trade in a volatile trading range with an upward bias towards a target of $18.50 later in 2019 as it steps higher into each successive trading range i.e. $15.25 to $16.25, then $16.25 to $17.30, then $17.30 to $18.50, which would represent a 25% gain on it's current price of $14.74. Whilst a spike to at $35+ remains a longer term objective.

Remember Silver is for Long-term INVESTING rather than to try and trade because it is a volatile messy market in terms of TA. Where the key accumulation zone for the past 5 years has been $14 to $15 which is where we find the Silver price currently trading.

The bottom line is that I see Silver as a coiled spring because in historic terms it is very undervalued against Gold and so I expect that spring to eventually propel Silver into an overbought state against Gold even though we are likely several years away from when that happens.

Silver at $16.56 is well on it's way of achieving $18.50, especially given my most recent in-depth analysis of the gold price which following the Gold price breaking out of 5 year old trading range painted a picture of the gold price trading as high as $1630 by early October.

27th July 2019 - Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update

Gold Price Forecast Conclusion Update

Silver Investing Strategy

Firstly, my long standing approach to Silver has been one of buying (accumulating) when the Silver price is cheap to invest to capitalise on long-term Spikes, as the silver price tends to be quite erratic in behaviour, prone to a lot of false signals so Silver can be a difficult market to trade i.e. tends to run stops and sharp movements contrary to the likes of Gold, just as we have experienced during the past month, with the bulk of the silver moves taking place towards the end of precious metals bull markets as illustrated by my analysis of May 2018 -

Silver Forecast 2018 and Beyond, Investing for the $35+ Price Spike!

In terms of a Silver market position then as is currently the case the silver market can usually be expected to be a dead market with the tendency to flat line not just for many months but even years as it tends to play second fiddle to Gold in terms of tradable swings, usually only really coming alive towards the latter stages of precious metal bull markets.

Existing Silver Price Targets

How high could silver go during 2019. My last update of 11th June concluded in $18.50 being achievable. Whilst the upper end of expectations were for a 2019 spike high to $21. With the long-term target of $35 as illustrated by the following chart.

Silver Price Forecast Conclusion

Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Silver price to trade in a volatile trading range with an upward bias towards a target of $21 later in 2019 which would represent a 42% gain on it's current price of $14.70. Whilst the spike to at least $35 remains as a longer term outlook.

(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)

So the Silver big question for 2019 is will the price be capped at resistance at $21 or like the Gold price breakout of its 5 year trading range to target the next resistance area of $25.

The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work. Silver Investing Trend Analysis and Price Forecasts 2019 Update

  • Is Silver is Still Cheap Relative to Gold?
  • Trend Analysis
  • Inflation Mega-trend QE4EVER Reminder
  • Silver Price Trend Forecast

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Disclaimer, I am invested in Silver (SLV)

Your mega-trends investing analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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