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Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

ROCHE - RHHBY Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing

Companies / Life Extension Aug 14, 2019 - 07:08 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Companies

We are currently galloping full speed along an exponential curve that unlike the neural nets of the 1990's, that promised a lot but delivered very little, this time it really looks like we are on the verge of AI success, not only that but it heralds changes in every aspect of our lives most of which we cannot even imagine today, hence the term the singularity is often used, the AI event horizon beyond which we cannot see.

My latest analysis in this series focuses on how to profit and capitalise on the unfolding machine intelligence driven mega-trend through investing in leveraged to AI Human Life Extension stocks.


The whole of this analysis including 4 sector stocks to invest in has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Investing to Profit and Benefit from Human Life Extension AI Stocks and Technologies

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

ROCHE - RHHBY (Tertiary)

Roche ranks as the worlds No 3 Pharma company though significantly smaller than J&J. However it's stock price has basically gone nowhere for the past 5 years which is why I class it as a tertiary risk play for this Swiss drugs giant that fundamentally is on a similar path to JNJ, as a competitor AI drugs company with its own diverse portfolio of products. Where AI is concerned Roche is fast developing its own machine learning infrastructure for instance to convert cancer patient data into computer models to identify individual cancer therapies. And similar to J&J has been busy acquiring biotech companies aimed towards developing their machine learning capabilities.

Roche Financials

Current Price $35  
Market Cap $240bn  
Enterprise Value $240bn  
Total Cash $13.5bn  
Net Income $10.7bn  
P/E Ratio 22.6  
Forward P/E 14.2  
Dividend Yield 3%  
Sales Growth 6.3%  
Price to Sales Ratio (lower better) 3.68  
Price to Cash Flow Ratio (lower better) 10.78  
PEG Ratio (lower better) 32.6  
Debt to Equity (lower better) 61.88  
Stock Price 3 Year Change 8%  
Ratio to S&P 20%  

The consequences of the likes of Roche's high PEG, low sales growth is reflected in its abysmal stock price performance of just 8% over the past 3 years. On the plus side Roche pays a decent dividend of 3%. And it's PE is lower than that of J&J's 25 though again it's forward PE of 14 can be discounted as unreliable, perhaps 18 or 19 is more likely. Also on the plus side Roche generates a healthy profit of $10.7 billion per annum and has a large cash mountain of $13.5bn towards investments and acquisitions, so is a safe stock with the potential to grow given the input of AI.

Trend - Roche's trend is all over the place, and not much comparable to that of the S&P by virtue of it being a Swiss company. The stock basically appears to be stuck in a trading range pending a breakout higher. Which is good if one can time purchases towards the lower end of its range of say $29 which is set against its current price of $35 towards the upper end.

Long-term Investing - Roche after spectacular bull run during he first pat of the decade rising from $14 to a peak of 38.54 early 2015 has since remained stuck in what is now is a 5 year trading range that typically ranges between $37 and $29. So if you had invested in Roche 5 years ago you would have made nothing in terms of capital gains. Which in my opinion is GOOD! Given this sector and stocks fundamentals then this stock should eventually breakout higher, and if the last breakout is anything to go by 2011 to 2015 than the stock price could easily double and probably more than triple. Of course we could just wait for the breakout than accumulate whilst it trades in the range.

Conclusion - This stock has gone nowhere for the past 5 years. Despite that the stock has good fundamentals and pays a healthy 3% dividend. Whilst no one knows when the stock will breakout of its trading range of $37 to $29. However the eventual breakout is likely to be higher that could see the stock near triple in price before likely entering another trading range. So the strategy here is to accumulate whilst the stock trades in a range, and especially seeking to capitalise on dips towards and below $30.

So Roche is a safe dividend paying stock where the risk is you have to wait several years before you start to see significant capital gains.

The rest of this this analysis including 4 sector stocks to invest in to profit from AI driven Life Extension has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Investing to Profit and Benefit from Human Life Extension AI Stocks and Technologies

  • Intro & Humanities Quest for Immortality
  • Extending Telomeres
  • Slowing Down the Ageing Process - Strength Training
  • Slowing Down the Ageing Process - Metformin
  • LIMITLESS - Improving Cognitive Function and Fighting Brain Ageing Right Now!
  • Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks
  • Stock 1 - Primary
  • Stock 2 - Roche
  • Stock 3 - Tertiary
  • Stock 4 - ETF
  • AI Stocks Investing Portfolio Update

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Scheduled Analysis

  • AI Stocks Buying Levels
  • NASDAQ
  • GBP/USD
  • EuroDollar Futures
  • Bitcoin Update
  • UK Housing market series
  • Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis
  • EUR/RUB

Recent Analysis includes:

Your mega-trends investing analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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