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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Gold not in Real Bull Market Yet

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 Sep 25, 2019 - 02:08 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Is Gold now back in a bull market? Most gold bugs think so and are quick to proclaim that.

But, could Gold remain in a secular bear market? It hasn’t made a new all time high in 8 years and the perma-bull, financial asset loving crowd certainly believes so.

This is semantics because what really matters is making money and nothing else.


With that said, Gold is not in a real bull market yet. We can still make money but the point is, when Gold enters a real bull market we will make a lot of money and quite easily.

Simply put, other than from 1985-1987, Gold has never been in a real bull market without outperforming the S&P 500.

Take a look at the chart below which plots Gold (black) and Gold against the S&P 500 (blue).

Gold has performed well in nominal terms since 2016 despite underperforming the stock market and that is because its exceptional strength against foreign currencies.

Some Gold-hating, financial-asset loving perma-bulls have compared the recent move in Gold to the one in the mid 1990s. They didn’t do the proper research and analysis because this time around Gold made a new all-time high against foreign currencies (FC).

That is an extremely strong positive divergence whereas in the mid 1990s (and mid 1980s) Gold/FC showed a negative divergence.

 
In both intermarket and relative terms, the key relationship for Gold moving forward is Gold against the US stock market. The ratio is trying to carve out a long-term bottom.

To learn the stocks we own and intend to buy during the next correction that have 3x to 5x potential, consider learning more about our premium service.

Good Luck!

Email: Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
Service Link: http://thedailygold.com/premium

Bio: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT  is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2014 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.  Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, and his editorials are regularly published in 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world.

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