Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 Oct 16, 2019 - 08:19 AM GMT

By: QUANTO

Stock-Markets

As global risks continue to rise and collect, equity markets rise as wave of bond market flows lift the risk markets globally. As the old saying goes, buy equities when there is blood on the streets. With Turkey fighting in Syria, risks are tilted to the downside for equity markets.

we remain in a fragile period where the possibility of a phased trade deal may not be enough to bring buyers into the markets. With earnings season due to start next week, anxious investors will soon have even more to worry about.

We analyse some charts and key fundamental data points.


ECB Balance Sheet

China Trade data

China has been powerhouse of the world economy. Both exports and imports have fallen. This is bad news for the rest of the world esp the US which is tied strongly to the Chinese exports to keep its economy buzzing at low cost. US companies operating costs will rise over 20% if China exports start to sowdown as seen above.

Oil Short Seller

Speculators are climbing into Oil shorts. The slowing world economy, US Oil has been pumping at record pace and Chinese growth worries are all potential triggers for a 20% correction in Oil prices. Geo political risks have been keeping prices high.

Slowdown in Industrial Production

Industrial production in EU has seen a dramatic fall in the last 4 quarters. Mainly driven by the export fall in Germany automobile sector.

Wholesale Prices in Germany

The mainstay of EU economy, German economy, is under severe pressure. Prices are falling of the cliff. The demand destruction is evident in the above chart.

Oil Markets

Iranian tanker was attacked last week and thus the tension is still very high. Look at the normally docile shipping rate charts below...

Oil supertanker rates are skyrocketing after the latest Middle East attack

Trading charts

Dollar Index

Dollar index is at key support 98.5. The index is now very much in the strongest part of its uptrend and we will see a significant surge higher into 103. The downside is limited. The hard brexit risk is very much an active threat. China - US tensions has not been solved. Turkish offensive have led to further increase demand for safe haven flows. Given the risks, dollar index will be well bid.

VIX: Fear index

VIX has again fallen to 16 from 19x. However the traditional 12 -13 range may not return. We see 16-24 as likely range in next 6 months. If VIX goes above 20, we will, see major risk to equity markets.  

Market Breadth

A bearish signal triggered in small-caps as the S&P 600 %Above 200-day EMA ($GT200SML) moved below 40% and reversed the bullish signal from early September. All told, six of the nine breadth indicators are on active bullish signals and three are on active bearish signals. Large-caps continue to lead the charge with all three signals bullish.

GBPUSD pushed higher to 1.2690. The level is near the 200 DMA. The move capped a two day rise of over +400 pips. The move was largely on account of short covering and we do not see the move being sustainable.

GBP/AUD too rose from 1,8250 to 1.8680. Prices have since eased down. Any positive news on US-China trade deal will first affect this pair before any other as both are dealing with significant fundamental issues.

To be updated of new research and trading performance, Please register: FREE REGISTER

TRADECOPIER

Our trading system has been churning out positive returns month after month since May 2019.

The current month return stand at +12%. Total Returns

Month Returns

October returns now stand at +12%. Last month generated +25% returned.

The QUANTO TRADE COPIER SYSTEM shown above is a high performance FX trading system. We send trades to your trading terminal (MT4 terminal). If interested, contact us below.

The TRADECOPIER SYSTEM CAN BE ACCESSED BY EMAILING US AT partners@quanto.live OR filling the form REACH US

To be updated of new research and trading performance, Please register: FREE REGISTER

Source: https://quanto.live/dailysetups/roll-over-risk-to-new-highs-in-sp-500/

By Quanto

http://quanto.live

Quanto.live is a Investment Management firm with active Trading for clients including Forex, Crypto. We send our trades via trade copiers which are copied to clients trading terminals. Top notch fundamental analysis and trading analysis help our clients to generate superior returns. Reach out to us: http://quanto.live/reach-us/

© 2019 Copyright Quanto - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules