Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 Oct 16, 2019 - 05:51 PM GMT

Long-term Trend Analysis

The past 2 years have seen repeated failures to decisively breakout to new highs resolving in significant corrections. Last year's failure resolved in a major downtrend from 27k to 21.7k. Are we in for a similar fate this year?

RESISTANCE : There is heavy over head resistance above 27000 where each break above soon snaps back to under 27k.

SUPPORT is along a series of highs in the range of 26,500. So any decline should see a bounce of sorts from that level. Major support kicks in around 24k, and then we have the spike low of 21.7k.

TRENDLINES- Rising trend line support from 21.7k low is at 26,100 rising to 26,600 by the end of October. A failure of this trend line would trigger a significant decline to 25,300 which probably won't hold and thus target 24,700, which probably also won't hold and thus see a decline towards 24k. Therefore this is a significant trendline, a break of which would trigger a significant sell off.

The overall trend picture is one of limited upside with significant downside risks. Which calls for portfolio hedging strategies such as put options.

MACD - MACD is bearish, lower highs and lows. Warning that a sell off is looming.

The rest of this analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast into the end of 2019 has first been made available to Patrons who support my work. Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct to Dec 2019

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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