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Silver Price Trend, Gold Ratio, MACD and Elliott Wave Analysis

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 Nov 26, 2019 - 03:42 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

This analysis continues from part 1 (Silver Trend Forecast 2019 Update ).

Gold Silver Ratio

The Gold / Silver ratio has continued to trend lower, currently standing at 83.8, which implies to expect the Silver price to continue to out perform Gold over the coming months. So whilst Silver is no longer the SCREAMING BUY it was when trading at a ratio of 95, nevertheless is still CHEAP! Whilst we can dream of Silver reaching it's long-term average of 50 which on today's Gold price would suggest $29.6! However my more realistic target for 2019 has been for a move to 80, which in fact was briefly achieved early September. A ratio of 80 would put the Silver price on $18.60 against the current price of $18.07, so only marginally higher, so whilst still favouring Silver, however don't expect Silver to soar once more like it did during August relative to the Gold price.


Trend Analysis

This chart illustrates that the Silver price has overcome a string of resistance levels in it's recent run to $19.75, which now act as support under the Silver price with nearest support in the range of $17 to $17.75, so downside should be limited.

The Silver price is currently correcting from strong resistance area of $21 to $19.25. Which means so far it still suggests that the Silver price should go higher, i.e. it's not signaled a trend change, the first warnings of which would be if the Silver price broke below $17. Which therefore implies a messy trend higher to first target it's recent high of $19.75 and then my ultimate target for 2019 of $21.

MACD - Has unwound it's most overbought state since the Mid 2016 peak so supportive of a resumption of the bull trend.

Elliott Waves - Implies we are in a 4th wave correction that should resolve in another impulse wave higher to take the Silver price beyond the Wave 3 peak of $19.75.

Silver Price Trend Forecast

The rest of this analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast into the end of 2019 has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.Silver Trend Forecast 2019 Update - Nov to Dec 2019

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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