Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
UK Election Seats Forecasts - Tories 326, Labour 241, SNP 40, Lib Dems 17 - 12th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 Final Seats Per Party Forecast - 12th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 - 11th Dec 19
Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? - 11th Dec 19
Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits - 11th Dec 19
Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth - 11th Dec 19
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? - 10th Dec 19
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF - 10th Dec 19
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back - 5th Dec 19
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak - 5th Dec 19
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 - 5th Dec 19
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One - 5th Dec 19
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you - 5th Dec 19
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time - 5th Dec 19
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average - 4th Dec 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK General Election Forecast 2019

Stock Market Where Are We? 

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 Dec 01, 2019 - 10:15 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Most likely building an intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers.  If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com

 Where Are We? 

Market Overview

Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target of 3680+.  A few weeks ago, it was not clear if structurally, SPX would retest its 12/18 low of 2346 or even surpass it before making a new high, but recent action appears to have eliminated this possibility.  In EWT parlance, this means that 2346 was most likely wave 4 of the bull market and not just wave-A of 4, and that it was also the beginning of the final wave 5 of the bull market which has higher to go before coming to an end. 

Intermediate trend:  Based again on the long-term P&F chart, if 3160-3180 fails to bring about an intermediate top (likely), we could see the index run up to ~3240 after a minor correction has taken place.

Short-term trend: The count for the current bullish phase taken on the long-term P&F chart called for ~3180, a pause, and then 3240.  Refined with a short-term P&F chart, we could see the first top at 3150-3160.   That was the high achieved on Wednesday.  

Neither SPX, nor IWM is showing signs of an important top forming at the weekly level.  Last week, both made new 2019 highs.  For the SPX this is also a new all-time high, but nothing has changed in the relative strength between the two.  Longer-term, IWM is still relatively weaker than SPX by a wide margin.  Apparently, this has no short-term import; but an increase in the IWM relative weakness could precede an intermediate term reversal. 

Market Analysis (All charts are courtesy of QChart)

SPX daily chart

SPX made a new high last week but hit resistance from a couple of trend lines which pushed it back down on Friday.  This has caused additional deceleration to the trend from 2856, as well as another close slightly below the dashed mid-channel line which could lead to additional weakness over the next few days.  As long as it remains above 2990, SPX remains in a short-term uptrend.  The entire pattern is very similar to that of the short-term uptrend from early June whereby the first break of the blue dashed line was followed by one more little up-wave which led to a short-term reversal when prices turned down again.  This is what happened on Friday, but we will need some follow-through to the downside to start a downtrend. 

There are several technical reasons to believe that we are in a reversal area for a minor top but we will need confirmation that this is the case. Last week I mentioned that we could get either a retest of that high, or possibly a new high.  With that out of the way we now have a chance to decline into the cycle low due in the first half on December.

SPX hourly chart 

P&F projections are not always exact, but they are usually pretty accurate. This is why the short-term target of 3150-3160 which was reached on Wednesday and followed by a pull-back on Friday may very well indicate that a pause in the uptrend has started.  If that pull-back extends below 3125, we have a short-term top in place! 

It is too soon to obtain a target from the P&F chart.  However, Fibonacci retracement levels for the recent uptrend from 2856 can be useful as a substitute.  If a short-term correction has started, it would be normal for the index to decline to about 3035 (.382) or even 2998 (.50).   

With Friday’s close, the lower two indicators have given a strong sell signal, but the upper CCI has barely dipped into the red.  A little more weakness that pushes beyond the blue 50hr MA would give us the confirmation we need.   

UUP (dollar ETF) daily

UUP turned down on Friday.  If this is the end of the move from 10/21, the next decline could challenge the lower blue channel line.  A close below 2675 would enhance that possibility.

 

GDX (Gold miners ETF) weekly

GDX may have completed its correction with a successful retest of the 25.98 low.  If the budding uptrend can take it beyond
27.50, it could mark the start of a new bullish phase aiming to complete the small base count to 33.50-34.50.

BNO (U.S. Brent oil fund) daily

Last week, I suspected that BNO was close to ending its rally from 17.15.  Friday’s sharp decline to 18.95 which started with a gap opening looks like the beginning of something important.  The fact that it was on light volume could be due to Friday being a shortened session with many traders on a four-day weekend.  A move below 18.50 would be a bigger negative. 

 

Summary

A short-term top may have been reached last Wednesday.  If so, a near-term correction to about 3035- is a good possibility.

Andre 

FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTON

For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to anvi1962@cableone.net, or go to www.marketurningpoints.com and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules