Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Final Thrust Review - 19th Jan 20
Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect - 19th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - Trend Analysis - Video - 19th Jan 20
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) - 19th Jan 20
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 18th Jan 20
Gold Stocks Wavering - 18th Jan 20
Best Amazon iPhone Case Fits 6s, 7, 8 by Toovren Review - 18th Jan 20
1. GOOGLE (Alphabet) - Primary AI Tech Stock For Investing 2020 - 17th Jan 20
ERY Energy Bear Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th - 17th Jan 20
What Expiring Stock and Commodity Market Bubbles Look Like - 17th Jan 20
Platinum Breaks $1000 On Big Rally - What's Next Forecast - 17th Jan 20
Precious Metals Set to Keep Powering Ahead - 17th Jan 20
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle  - 16th Jan 20
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market - 16th Jan 20
America 2020 – YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY (PART TWO) - 16th Jan 20
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator - 16th Jan 20
MICROSOFT Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 15th Jan 20
Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II - 15th Jan 20
Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher - 15th Jan 20
Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' - 15th Jan 20
AMD is Killing Intel - Best CPU's For 2020! Ryzen 3900x, 3950x, 3960x Budget, to High End Systems - 15th Jan 20
The Importance Of Keeping Invoices Up To Date - 15th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 - 14th Jan 20
Walmart Has Made a Genius Move to Beat Amazon - 14th Jan 20
Deep State 2020 – A Year Of Living Dangerously! - 14th Jan 20
The End of College Is Near - 14th Jan 20
AI Stocks Investing 2020 to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Video - 14th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust - 14th Jan 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast Review - 13th Jan 20
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality - 13th Jan 20
Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I - 13th Jan 20
Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers - 13th Jan 20
AMAZON Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 11th Jan 20
Gold Price Reacting to Global Flash Points - 11th Jan 20
Land Rover Discovery Sport 2020 - What You Need to Know Before Buying - 11th Jan 20
Gold Buying Precarious - 11th Jan 20
The Crazy Stock Market Train to Bull Eternity - 11th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

ONS UK Unemployment Statistics Paint a FAKE Picture of Falling Unemployment

Economics / Unemployment Dec 17, 2019 - 11:07 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Today the ONS published it's latest labour market statistics which include headline grabbing news that unemployment has continued to fall to an historic low of just 1.28 million as the below graph illustrates, far below the trough before the financial crisis hit Britain. However there is a fly in the ointment of this rosy picture that the Governments economic propaganda arm (ONS is painting which is that official unemployment statistics have been manipulated lower by successive governments all the way to the point that on their own they are pretty much meaningless. For instance there are over 8.6 million people of working age who are ECONOMICALLY INACTIVE, that's another word for UNEMPLOYED!


I have been iterating this for MORE than a decade(01 Jul 2010 - UK Unemployment Forecast 2010 to 2015), REAL UK Unemployment is far higher than the official statistics state it to be, currently probably more than triple the official figure that puts real UK unemployment in the region of 5 million and not 1.28 million.

To illustrate this point the above graph also shows that the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits (claimant count) which has risen from 730,000 in 2016 to 1.21 million today. Whilst at the same time the number of people officially classed as unemployed has fallen from 1.7 million to 1.28 million today.

So what has changed that is apparently automatically reclassifying an increasing number of the hidden from statistics in receipt of benefits unemployed to be officially reclassified as being unemployed?

Well there is one Tory government policy that stands out which is the roll out of Universal Credit. As most of the hidden unemployed are claiming supposed in work benefits such as working tax credits, child tax credits, housing benefit etc... A large percentage of whom are actually NOT working! An industry of fake employed and fake self employments has grown up that number in their millions all to avoid having to undertake the duties of looking for a real job as required for those registered as unemployed i.e. in receipt of Job Seekers allowance. So as many as 3.5 million additional unemployed are claiming benefits without any requirements to look for work. Which suits the government fine, after all the mainstream press has liberally regurgitated the good news of falling unemployment, despite the fact that if one looks under the economies hood, one soon see's the mass of HIDDEN unemployed all in the service of fake statistics for state propaganda purposes.

The unintended consequences of Universal Credit is to expose the 'fake' workers, and so most of the people transferred over to Universal Credit tend to be reclassified to their actual state of unemployment which is probably why there are so many protests against Universal Credit as it threatens to end the gravy train that many millions have been on for decades.

The relative trend trajectories also suggest that claimant count is set to surpass the unemployed number within the next few months, which will illustrate just how fake Britain's economic statistics truly are that more people will be claiming out of work benefits than are recorded as being unemployed! In fact if things were left as is than by the time of the next UK general election I would not be surprised if claimant count had risen to over 3 million!

Though what is actually likely to happen is that the Government will CHANGE the methodology for calculating the claimant count numbers so as to reduce the number to roughly 800,000 below the fake Unemployed total so as to once more HIDE the true level of unemployment which is around 5 million.

How Fake Unemployment Statistics impacted the General Election

The Tory government continue to peddle the fake unemployment statistics for propaganda purposes, to bang the drum of having cut UK unemployment towards record lows despite the fact that the real number of unemployed being more than triple the official figure!

So the Tories gain some propaganda value for being able to pump out low unemployment graphs based on official statistics that paint them in a good economic light.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules