Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

What Expiring Stock and Commodity Market Bubbles Look Like

Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble Jan 17, 2020 - 03:48 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Stock-Markets

The Nasdaq bubble popped in 2000 after motoring upward on increasing volume in two separate phases. Volume rammed upward and RSI diverged. Like shootin’ fish in a barrel it was, except that at the time I was too inexperienced to see it. It was a steep slope and blow out.


The 2006 bubble in copper made a consolidation and a steep slope and blow out of its own with a little help from rising volume, but nothing like the above. No notable divergences here. The inflation trade of the time was starting to rotate, and rotate commodity herds did…

…to Uranium for instance. This one had 3 separate pumps to the top with volume surges on the first two and lamer volume on the top, which like others is a near vertical slope.

Then came the PEAK OIL!!! induced mania and bubble. Pickens, take a bow. Martenson, take a bow. Who ever else was out front pumping, take a bow. You even had congress convening and trying to legislate oil speculators as if it were some sort of national emergency instead of a friggin’ play, a bubble. The volume surged, congress convened and the bubble, which never went vertical, finally expired.

Now for silver, which reached the fabled Hunt Brothers bubble high of 1980. Why, it was going to its next stop at 100/oz. and beyond, maybe even on par with gold (little brother Palladium has become Platinum’s daddy after all). Silver was a bubble in the spring of 2011 as Bill Gross shorted long bonds because… INFLATION!!! among other hype making the rounds at the time (of inflation’s dramatic blow out). A big time volume surge accompanied silver’s final drive to 50.

Okay, speaking of Palladium here is the current specimen. There’s the vertical price action, there’s the building volume and there’s the overbought RSI. Matter of time?

And that brings us to the current headline bubble du jour. Oh wait, it’s not vertical and volume is not building. What is the meaning of this??

Well just maybe this one is going to expire of its own bloat as volume continues to be less interested. It’s been supported by panic monetary policy every step of the way and since 2016, a heaping layer of fiscal (read: political) policy as well. The above are all daily charts showing the approaches to and crack at the top of the respective bubbles. SPX excepted of course, because it has not cracked.

This monthly chart shows that SPX has gone up in 3 major phases with what could be the final one in process now. In this view the current rally looks vertical. Hmm. RSI is diverging negatively, unlike some of the momo volume bubbles of the past. But again, my thesis is that the bubble is in the extreme policy propping it literally from 2008 to the current day.

It’s going to stop where it stops. Our targets have been 3200 and 3300, which SPX hit this week. There’s another up higher. But among the things I’d be looking for on the daily chart above is a short burst of volume and a short burst of parabolic activity. May happen, or as noted above the pig may just roll over of its own bloat (legacy and current policy is bloated beyond comprehension in support of this monolith to the folly of man).

[edit] Okay, can’t resist…

History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of man…

NFTRH has tracked and been on the right side of this rampage since it began on Christmas Eve, 2018. The above give some clues about what we’ll be looking for going forward because when this Godzilla gets pissed, he’s not gonna rampage through Tokyo. Been there, done that. He’ll have another city built too high on false hopes to deal with.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $33.50 or a 14% discounted yearly at USD $345.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas, all archived/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar and get even more by joining our free eLetter. Or follow via Twitter ;@BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2019 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in