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China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections by 66% Due to Capacity Constraints

Politics / Pandemic Feb 12, 2020 - 07:13 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

China continues to lock down cities in an attempt to halt the spread of Coronavirus as apparently the virus can spread as an aerosol spray which would make it far more infectious than previously thought, which if true explains why passengers quarantined in their cabins on board the Diamond Princess in Japan are continuing to become infected, with the total now at 175 infected passengers and crew.

All this whilst official Chinese infections and deaths statistics appear to have hit a plateau with China reporting a falling rate of infection (+2000). But it's not a question of whether we should believe any statistics coming out of a totalitarian state where what the government states to be the facts are to be believed to be so under threat of punishment, rather it is also likely that propaganda is being coupled with the fact that the China is hitting capacity constraints in it's ability to diagnose infected persons or the cause of deaths as a consequence of Coronavirus, where actual cases presented beyond a certain number are either being rejected by the system or literally cremated as the dead are so as to prevent the spread of the virus.


Meanwhile the World Health Organisation has announced a major milestone in their work of the past month, which is that the Coronavirus from hence forth is to be called COVID-19, maybe at some point they will get around to the vaccine? Though at present they persist in following the Chinese communist party line that it is safe to travel to and from China, so we are all doomed!

Coronavirus Spread Day 65 - 11th Feb 2020 Update

My forecast for the number of infections and deaths by 11th of Feb 2020 vs actual reported:

  Infections Deaths
Forecast 94228 2826
Actual Reported 43143 1018
% Diff 46% 36%

 

Were this trend to continue into the end of February 2020 then the number of infected would total 458,000, whilst the number of deaths would total 10,803. So the latest data implies a lower spread but still a relatively high mortality rate of about 2.4%.

In reality the actual number of infections and deaths is likely closer to the forecast than what China's healthcare system hitting capacity constraints implies, as for some weeks all those even suspected of being infected are not being met by medical staff but by a barely protected army of police as the opening minutes of my most recent video illustrates.

CoronaVirus Pandemic Stocks Bear Market Risk 2020

The likelihood of China grossly under reporting the actual number of cases will be seen in -

a. The number of infections outside of China continuing to rapidly expand as contact with infected Chinese people acts as sparks for epidemics elsewhere.

b. That the outbreak in China will FAIL to subside, which is what it should do if the Chinese statistics were correct i.e. the pandemic would basically come to an end within the next couple of weeks. Instead I expect the number of infections to continue at a high reporting plateau for several more months.

So I still expect the actual pool of infected to pass 1 million by the end of February and thus the risks of a global pandemic remain highly probable.

And that there are large susceptible populations with poor healthcare infrastructure such as India that announced it's first infection a week ago where outbreaks could quickly overwhelm heathcare systems. Also that a vaccine is still a good 4 months away so far too late to have any impact on this pandemic.

The bottom line is no one should be fooled by coronavirus statistics out of China, the pandemic is NOT under control and the number of infected has likely already passed 200,000. With like wise the number of deaths exceeding 2,000 or about twice the official number, the evidence of which is being literally cremated.

Therefore given the actual continuing rate of spread of the virus in China then the forecast trend trajectories for the rest of the world is currently one of being in the calm before the storm stage with likely several outbreaks that risk over whelming healthcare systems around the world as has happened in China.

What's even more worrying is when one looks at the world map that apparently there have been no cases of the virus in Africa or South and Central America. That is very hard to believe, instead suggests that there are out breaks underway in those regions that will only make the light of day when the body bags start piling up.

Until then don't be fooled into a false sense of security, the pandemic IS coming to your nation, where my next analysis will be a forecast for the expected trend trajectory for the UK into the end of March 2020.

So take this calm before the storm stage to take measures to protect yourselves by both limiting exposure to risk of viral particles and in boosting ones immune systems so as to better cope with an infection, achieved by for instance consuming say 2 or 3 oranges a day for vitamin C, as one example of boosting ones immune system, another example is to ensure you get ample sleep. I will cover how to protect from the coronavirus in more detail in a future article.

Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger a Stocks Bear Market 2020?

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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