Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Coronavirus, Powell and Gold

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020 Feb 14, 2020 - 08:55 AM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

Coronavirus, Powell and Gold

The number of cases and deaths by the new coronavirus have escalated quickly. However, the fears subsided and the stock market rebounded. How did gold perform, and what can we expect from the king of metals next?

Should We Stop Worrying about the Coronavirus?

Well, that was a quick escalation. On February 2, when we wrote the first Fundamental Gold Report about the coronavirus, there were 14,557 confirmed cases and 305 deaths. Yesterday, the World Health Organization reported almost 45,171 cases and 1115 deaths. So, the number of infections and death toll of coronavirus have surged in recent days. Moreover, China has changed today its diagnosis methodology (to include “clinically diagnosed” cases), confirming 15,152 new cases and 254 additional deaths. Hence, as the chart below shows, the total number of cases in China has reached 59,800, while the global number has already surpassed 60,000.


Chart 1: Cases of Coronavirus in Mainland China

Meanwhile, the US stock market reached record closing highs yesterday as the chart below shows. Are investors blind? Are they irresponsible optimists? Well, it’s true that the Fed’s cheap money enables traders to have fun while the world is burning.

Chart 2: S&P 500 (green line, left axis) and gold (yellow line, right axis, in $) in 2020

But there is also a true ray of hope. Not counting today’s spike in new cases in China caused probably by the change in the methodology, the number of new cases reported daily there has been on a downward trend since February 4. It means that transmissions are still occurring but at a slower rate, which gives hope that the outbreak may be approaching its peak.

However, it’s far too premature to say that the containment is working – the case may be simply unconfirmed. And the virus may still spread outside China. Moreover, investors should remember that the economic impact of the new coronavirus is likely to be greater than in case of the SARS outbreak nearly 20 years ago. This is because: 1) it already killed more people than SARS did; 2) China’s government has taken more drastic measures – for example, many Chinese factors have been shut – to contain the epidemic; 3) China’s economy is now about four times greater than two decades ago. Some analysts slashed their forecast for China’s growth in 2020 to as low as 5 percent. When the virus is contained and the factories reopen, there will be a rebound, but there is no doubt that we will see a serious slowdown in Chinese growth in the first quarter and in global growth in the next few months.

Powell Remains Optimistic

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Congress this week. He reiterated his confidence in the sustainability of the record-long US economic expansion, saying that “there’s no reason why the current situation of low unemployment, rising wages, high job creation – there’s no reason why it can’t go on”. Powell admitted that the outbreak of the new coronavirus will impact China and that there will “very likely be some effects on the United States.” But he argued that it was too early to determine what those effects would be and would they lead to a material reassessment of the outlook.

However, Powell opened the door to increase asset purchases aggressively if needed. He said that the Fed has, aside the interest rates, two tools to fight the recession: forward guidance and quantitative easing. And that “we will use those tools — I believe we will use them aggressively should the need arise to do so.” That would be music to the gold bulls’ ears!

Implications for Gold

What does it all mean for the gold market? Well, the coronavirus has not made gold rally. Investors probably are aware that the current uncertainty is temporary and once the coronavirus is contained, global growth will resume. What is important is that the central banks will remain very accommodative until there is some resolution on the coronavirus. The fresh liquidity will support the risky assets. It seems to be negative for safe-havens such as gold, but the yellow metal often moves in tandem with the stock market in times of monetary accommodation. The chart above clearly shows that although gold has not rallied like crazy due to the coronavirus, it has been resilient when the fears subsided a bit.

Thank you.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the link between the U.S. economy and the gold market, we invite you to read the August Market Overview report. If you're interested in the detailed price analysis and price projections with targets, we invite you to sign up for our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts . If you're not ready to subscribe at this time, we invite you to sign up for our gold newsletter and stay up-to-date with our latest free articles. It's free and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Arkadiusz Sieron

Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in