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Coronavirus Infections Going Parabolic Outside China - Pandemic Day 84

Politics / Pandemic Mar 02, 2020 - 06:58 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Whilst China's infection numbers cannot be trusted, meanwhile the developed worlds numbers should prove more accurate, at least in the early stages of the pandemic. Though we still have two gaping holes on the world Map i.e. Africa and Central & South America, to imagine that there is just 1 infection in Egypt and 1 in Brazil is delusional, given the comings and goings of upwards of 1 million chinese workers across the continents, instead the infected number in Africa and South America already likely runs into the several thousands that as of yet remain unrecorded, so expect a sharp spike in numbers at some point when the degree of infections is acknowledged.


Nevertheless despite proper a record of African and the South Central America's numbers the official number of infections is literally going Parabolic, soaring by over 1775 overnight to 8564 to well above my trend forecast that projects to an official tally of 129,250 infections outside China by the end of March 2020.

South Korea Infection Spread Warning

Reliable South Korean data warns of literally exponential spread of the coronavirus in the early days of outbreaks, where R0 rather than being 2 to 2.6 as being the consensus view instead South Korean data calculates R0 to 4.6! Literally explosive growth in the number of infections before a nations healthcare system is able to respond, this explosive early growth is likely as a consequence that those infected can be asymptomatic for between 3 and 7 days and a few super spreads for as many as 14 days! Who unbeknown are literally infecting dozens of people per day who themselves go onto infect several each..

South Korea Coronavirus WARNING - R0 4.6 Infection Spread Rate!

UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - Day 34 Update

The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to increase on a daily basis, which now include person to person infections that are unable to be linked back to one of the growing outbreak hot spots across the world i.e. people who have brought the virus into the UK from China, South Korea or Italy which remain the main transmission points for the virus.

The fact that the UK only has 40 cases does not alter the fact that the UK is in the calm before the coronavirus storm stage as my forecast of 14th Feb 2020 concluded in the number infected to trend to 5000 by the end of March resulting in some 90 deaths, which would represent a huge parabolic increase from the current tally of 40 infected.

However my analysis of what is happening in South Korea illustrates that outbreaks tend to be explosive, soon jumping from 1 to 1000 infected in a matter of days, which is likely the pattern to expect in the UK, that I am sure will prompt emergency, even panic response such as cancellation of virtually all public events, schools, universities and colleges being closed, and infected hot spots being quarantined, all likely to start taking place by Mid March, as I first warned to expect to happen over 2 weeks ago. Where Britain's school could remain closed until September!

UK Coronavirus WARNING - All Schools, Colleges, and Universities Closed by Mid March, Outbreaks Imminent!

US Coronavirus Infections About to Go Parabolic

Apparerntly the US does not have tests that can test for the Coronavirus, so how many hundreds of infected are roaming the streets busy infecting US citizens because the CDC is incompetent?

My US trend forecast is for 13,000 infected by the end of the month and about 180 deaths. Though it remains to be seen WHEN the US will be able to get it's act together and actually start to accurately test suspected patients !

The bottom line is that most western nations are still in the calm before the coronavirus storm change where outbreaks could spread a nearer to r5.0 rather than oft mentioned r2.6, at least for the first few days of an outbreak, which means the UK having just 40 managed cases is nothing to get complacent about for there WILL be outbreaks in the UK that will be just as bad as in South Korea and closer still Italy, it is only a matter of time that should not be wasted but rather utilised to prepare for, especially given the fact that the NHS has only spare capacity for 400 cortically ill patients, that could number 1000 by the end of March alone, let alone be able to cope with that which will follow in April and May. And worse still most of the beds will likely be occupied by HEALTH workers, as they are most at risk of becoming infected. So the general public stands a hope in hells chance of being treated for Coronavirus once the epidemic starts to get going by Mid March.

Stock Market Trend Implications

My stock market analysis and trend forecast BASED on my Coronavirus analysis of late January was first made available to Patrons who support my work. That basically WARNED to expect THIS decline on the 9th of February! Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger a Stocks Bear Market 2020?

Whilst my latest update of what to expect has first been made available to Patrons who support my work - The Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Begins, When Will it End?

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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