US Coronavirus Infections About to Go Parabolic - Day 42 Update

Politics / Pandemic Mar 04, 2020 - 02:15 PM GMT

Apparently the CDC has been sending out Coronavirus test kits that don't work! So how many hundreds of infected have been roaming US streets infecting fellow citizens because the CDC is incompetent. it looks like the CDC wants to 'control' media attention on the Coronavirus than actually do their job in preventing outbreaks, much as the WHO have been shown to be little more than media whores rather do anything proactive in preventing outbreaks, an example of which is failure to halt all flight from China! That they should have done in January!.

My US trend forecast is for 13,000 infected by the end of March resulting in about 180 deaths. Though the actual number may turn out to be significantly higher because I see little sign that the US is taking the Coronavirus seriously enough, where many are still shrugging it off as being not that much worse than the flu. Instead it is at least 15 times as deadly as the flu, and depending on quality of healthcare can be 100 times as deadly!

The bottom line is that most western nations are still in the calm before the coronavirus storm stage where outbreaks could spread at nearer to r0 5.0 rather than oft mentioned r0 2.6, at least for the first 4 or 5 days of an outbreak, which means the UK and US having only 50 managed cases each is nothing to get complacent about for there WILL be outbreaks that will be just as bad as in South Korea and Italy, it is only a matter of time that should not be wasted but rather utilised to prepare for, especially given the fact that the likes of Britain's NHS has only spare capacity for 400 critically ill patients that could number 1000 by the end of March alone, let alone be able to cope with what looks increasingly likely for April and May. And worse still most of the beds by then will likely be occupied by infected HEALTH care workers, as they are most at risk of becoming infected. So the general public stands a hope in hells chance of getting treated for Coronavirus once the epidemic gets going by Mid March.

Stock Market Trend Implications

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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