Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

UK Covid-19 Deaths are REAL Extra Deaths, Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State

Politics / Pandemic Apr 24, 2020 - 06:01 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

My last analysis (Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?) focused on answering the question are Covid-19 real extra deaths or are they people who would have died anyway. The answer to which was expected to be in the weekly total registered death statistics as published by the ONS Where my analysis concluded in a central expectation for the number of total UK deaths registered for the week ending 3rd April to jump by 44%. And for every percentage below then Covid-19 could be deemed to be less significant, but for every percentage above then would deem to be more deadly.


The actual data as published by the ONS showed a shocking 59% jump in the number of weekly deaths as the updated table illustrates.

So there you have it, Covid-19 deaths ARE REAL EXTRA DEATHS of people, most of whom WOULD otherwise be alive today! Furthermore my analysis at the time warned of worse to come for the subsequent week ending 10th of April 2020 projecting to a 69% increase over the 5 year average.

ONS data published on the 21st of April showed a 80% jump in the number of weekly deaths, a trend that would have continued to worsen in subsequent weeks had it not been for the lockdown which is expected to moderate the number of extra deaths over the coming weeks.

So unfortunately the Covid-19 deaths are real extra deaths, which means the lockdown's are necessary because the UK government is incompetent, unable to manage outbreaks in a competent manner as South Korea has which gave advance warning of what was necessary instead we have two clueless morons advising the government at daily press briefings, hopefully they will be held to account for their incompetence..

My trend forecast as of 22nd of March concluded in the UK trending towards 123,000 infected testing positive, and 8,100 deaths by the end of April 2020.

My latest update as of 20th of April has the number infected at 124,743 and the number of deaths at 16,509 against 8,064 forecast that resolves to a shockingly high case fatality rate of 13.2%. Were this trend to persist than the UK would be heading for about 22,000 deaths by the end of April. Meanwhile 125,000 testing positive X15 and X30 translates into herd immunity of between 3% to 6%, so the price paid in lives lost does not amount to much immunity in the general population.

Which just illustrates the degree to which the Boris Johnson's government has been negligent in the handling of Covid-19! So instead of 100 deaths the UK looks set to become Italy 2.0!

Lets hope a future public inquiry does not result in a whitewash of all those in charge who have proven to be criminally negligent! Who sat on their asses until Mid March and then hit the panic button when the deaths started rolling in!

This also brings into the question the competency of all facets of Britain's institutions from the civil service, to the NHS to the city clowncil's.

Imagine if Britain had to go to war? It would be a total disaster ending in obvious defeat because the morons in charge would be so unprepared they would probably run out of bullets on the first day!

So the UK response to the coronavirus has been disastrous, heading for where Italy currently is on 24,000 deaths. This despite advance warning! With the Italian Prime Minister screaming down the telephone to get ready for what was coming our way, instead BJ would joke about shaking hands with covid-19 patients, so not much of a surprise the idiot got infected.

Also what's the point of making forecasts when morons are in charge who repeatedly FAIL to ACT! Even now the morons are making calls around the world hunting for PPE equipment! There needs to be justice for the 16,000 dead and likely many more thousands to come!

The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Is the Stock Market Correct to Ignore The Great Coronavirus Economic Depression?

  • Rabbits in the Headlights
  • Paving the Way for War with China 
  • The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History?
  • Crude Oil Prices Go NEGATIVE!
  • UK Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
  • US Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
  • Stock Market Implications and Forecast

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in