Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

New Stocks Bull or Same Old One?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020 Jun 10, 2020 - 04:25 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

 SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.

Intermediate trend Up from March 23,2020.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers.  If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please go to www.marketurningpoints.com and request a trial.

New Bull or Same Old One? 

Important Cycles

Did the 4.5-year cycle bottom in March instead of waiting for its ideal low point in July?  This is a possibility according to a Hurst analyst.

Point & Figure Overview of SPX

Intermediate projection:  3220-3250?

Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QChart)

SPX-IWM weekly charts 

Trying to reconcile the market action with the background of pandemic, riots, and economic statistics which rival those of the great depression can make your head spin!  That is why technical analysis is the only sane alternative to understanding what is taking place.  Keeping it simple, the market found a low in March and started a rally which just made a new high last Friday.  This rally, for the time being at least, has taken the market out of the bear territory and opened the possibility that we have resumed the long-term trend which started in 2009.  Possible!  If the market continues its uptrend and makes a new high, this will be confirmed.  But this is not yet a given, because it is also possible that the rally is about to come to an end.  The base that was formed at the 2450 level by SPX had the potential of supporting a move to the 3220-3250 level (conservative count) or to about 200 points higher (liberal count). Any projection past these levels would include some “weak count” which is not reliable. Assuming the conservative count is correct, what happens over the next several weeks will decide whether we are still in a bull market. 

SPX daily chart

 On Friday, SPX reached 3212 in what looks like a buying climax.  Since the daily high occurred at resistance, very near the projection posted above, and there is still a chance that the 45-td cycle low (ideally due Tuesday) is still ahead of us, we could get a pull-back for a couple of days followed by another test of the projection area.  This is what I would like to see to suggest that my analysis is correct. 

To show that the move has ended, SPX needs first to fall below the near-term trend line.  Next should come some congestion forming a topping area or, if we are going to move higher, forming a base for the next phase up.

The oscillators made new highs with the price.  The only negative divergence remains in the A-Ds.  That would indicate that higher prices should come before we start a decline; it does not tell us how much higher we need to go.

 

SPX hourly chart

 In the last Newsletter, I had expected that a short-term correction was in the making, but it was cut short by the better than anticipated, non-farm payrolls report on Friday which seems to have come as a big surprise to analysts.

 The uptrend started at 2767 and appears to have run into resistance at 3214 (shown on the daily chart) as well as from various trend and channel lines drawn on the hourly chart.  There was not enough of a retracement to go beyond the shortest MA, or to cause the oscillators to give a sell signal.  Nor was there clear enough negative divergence to indicate the probability of a top, except in the A-Ds.  The futures lost a little more ground after the close, but not enough to be convincing.  We should know better on Sunday night!  If they continue to decline, it will probably suggest a lower opening on Monday. 

At first glance, the move does appear complete, especially with what looks like an exhaustion gap taking place at Friday’s opening.  If it is, at the very least we should expect it to be filled right away.

 

UUP (dollar ETF) daily

It’s interesting that the “good” report on Friday did not cause a stir in UUP.  Perhaps this tells us that the data was distorted.  In any case, the index continues to be pulled lower by the bottoming 3-mo cycle which has approximately three more weeks to go. 

 

GDX (Gold miners ETF) monthly

The monthly chart of GDX shows that a significant base has been formed since 2013 and that the index has risen above it.  This is suggestive of long-term price appreciation.  Near-term, the index appears to be consolidating after breaking out of its base.   

 

PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.) daily

PAAS is also correcting after tracing a new recovery high from the severe sell-off in March.  It has found resistance at the top of its current bullish channel, as well as at the top of a former, intermediate channel.  As in GDX, the long-term base that it has built is indicative of higher prices.  The current pull-back may only be short-term.

 

BNO (U.S. Brent oil fund) daily

BNO continues to move along with the market and will start to retrace when the market does.  It is still expected to build a base before it can move substantially higher.

 

Summary  

“… SPX has continued to drive towards its intermediate destination (which could be at least 2160) before the 40-wk cycle forces a severe retracement into mid-July.”

SPX has now surpassed the minimum recovery target provided by the base count, and has come much closer to the conservative intermediate target (mentioned above) which is more likely to show an end to the rally from the March low -- unless traders opt for the liberal count which could take prices a couple hundred points higher.

Andre 

FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTON

For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to anvi1962@cableone.net, or go to www.marketurningpoints.com and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules